A Hotter World; more extreme consequences; more political denial

The Earth is about 4 1/2 billion years old. During that time the planet has experienced 5 major climate-changing events of global proportion, each accompanied by 5 major global extinctions events.

Most people are focused on the noise of their modern daily lives.  Macro subjects like global heating, species losses, wars, and the social and economic impacts of these threats to the status quo are generally left to so-called subject matter experts, that is, until events strike home.

Bloomberg reported early today the potential cost of the Los Angeles area fires (presently destroying large swaths of Southern California) are now projected to range between $135 billion to $150 billion in property and other economic losses.

By comparison, the total damage and economic loss from the unprecedented 2023 Maui wildfires has been estimated to range between $13 billion and $16 billion. These hugh property losses, in each case, do not consider costs measured in personal tragedy to individuals, families, and businesses victimized by ever-increasing and catastrophic events linked to global heating.

While climate change did not play much of a role in this past year’s campaign, Trump’s likely actions in office this time around could be far more significant than in 2017.  Back then, he announced the US would pull out of the Paris climate agreement, the most important UN process to tackle global climate change.  The agreement saw almost all the world’s nations – for the first time,  agreeing to cut the greenhouse gas emissions linked to global heating.

Speaking in his New Year’s message, secretary-general of the United Nations António Guterres said that the world is witnessing a “climate breakdown – in real time”.   

“We must exit this road to ruin. In 2025, countries must put the world on a safer path by dramatically slashing emissions and supporting the transition to a renewable future,” he said, stressing that …“it is essential – and it is possible”.

The new mission of the Trump round-two administration is the same as the first time around, push for a major ramp up of oil and gas exploration and production within the US, fuel a dirty energy market economy based on increasing consumption, roll back environmental protections, defund an emerging clean energy national economy, and impose heavy tariffs on electric vehicles and solar panels coming from China and other import markets Trump does not control.

“You are looking at, overall, a ‘drill baby drill’ philosophy,” Dan Eberhart, chief executive officer of oilfield services company Canary LLC told Bloomberg News.  “You are going to see offshore lease sales, you are going to see pipelines move much quicker, you are going to see fracking on federal lands and a mindset that is focused on advancing big oil profits and removing environmental safeguards.

It is not yet clear if Trump can turn back the clock for coal, oil and gas, or curtail the growth of sustainable energy sources.  For a start he faces both global and domestic opposition – also notably from within his own party, once laughingly referred to as the Gas Oil Pollution party.

President Biden’s singular outstanding accomplishment during his four year term was the passage and implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which ultimately may channel as much as $1 trillion of spending towards a national transition into a sustainable clean energy economy.  To win over largely Republican states, Biden channelled a large portion of IRA funds into several key GOP states and districts, who have since conveniently joined a growing global clean energy economy.

“The result from this election will be seen as a major blow to global climate action,” said Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate chief.   “But it cannot and will not halt the changes under way to decarbonize the economy and meet the goals of the Paris agreement.”

In memory of President Carter … who was ahead of his time:

“No one can embargo the sun,” Carter once said. “No cartel controls the sun. Its energy will not run out. It will not pollute our air or poison our waters. The sun’s power needs only to be collected, stored and used.”