Hawaii’s remote location has historically protected the island chain from many major storm events and enabled an unique marine and land ecosystem to flourish.  As the impacts of Climate Change grow there is no escaping the planetary consequences, even when you’re living in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

Heatwaves are sweeping oceans ‘like wildfires’, scientists reveal this week in long term effort to track the impact of global rising temperatures on the Earth’s oceans.  The study found extreme temperatures are destroying kelp, seagrass and corals – with alarming impacts for Hawai’i, the planet, and humanity.

Global warming is gradually increasing the average temperature of the oceans, but the new research provides the first systematic global analysis of ocean heatwaves, when temperatures reach extremes for five days or more.

The research found heatwaves are becoming more frequent, prolonged and severe, with the number of heatwave days tripling in the last couple of years studied. In the longer term, the number of heatwave days jumped by more than 50% in the 30 years to 2016, compared with the period of 1925 to 1954.

As heatwaves have increased, kelp forests, seagrass meadows and coral reefs have been lost. These foundation species are critical to life in the ocean. They provide shelter and food to many others, but have been hit on coasts from California to Australia to Spain.

“You have heatwave-induced wildfires that take out huge areas of forest, but this is happening underwater as well,” said Dan Smale at the Marine Biological Association in Plymouth, UK, who led the research published in Nature Climate Change. “You see the kelp and seagrasses dying in front of you. Within weeks or months they are just gone, along hundreds of miles of coastline.”

As well as quantifying the increase in heatwaves, the team analyzed 116 research papers on eight well-studied marine heatwaves, such as the record-breaking “Ningaloo Niño” that hit Australia in 2011 and the hot “blob” that persisted in the north-east Pacific from 2013 to 2016. They have adverse impacts on a wide range of organisms, from plankton to invertebrates, to fish, mammals and seabirds.

The scientists compared the areas where heatwaves have increased most with those areas harboring rich biodiversity or species already near their temperature limit and those where additional stresses, such as pollution or overfishing, already occur, including the western Pacific. Ocean systems are being battered by these multiple stresses, and local studies indicate that Hawaii’s marine reef system has not escaped the same stresses which are at work around the globe.

The natural ocean cycle of El Niño is a key factor in pushing up temperatures in some parts of the ocean, as Hawaii’s marine ecosystems experienced massive bleaching in 2015-16, amplified by global warming (an effect of carbon loading from fossil fueled emissions, and in turn, heating of ocean temperatures rapidly over the past 50 years).

The study further concludes the gradual overall heating of the oceans from El Niño driven heatwaves are now worse when they strike.  As ocean starting temperature rise, so does the absolute temperatures [in a heatwave] that is much higher and more stressful to marine life. Some marine wildlife is mobile and could in theory swim to cooler waters, but ocean heatwaves often strike large areas more rapidly than fish move.

“This [research] makes clear that heatwaves are hitting the ocean all over the world … The ocean, in effect, is spiking a fever,” said Prof Malin Pinsky, at Rutgers University, US. “These events are likely to become more extreme and more common in the future unless we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

When the global fishing wars hit Hawai’i

The damage from over-fishing and global warming has created a one-two punch and knockout to global fishing stocks. In a series of other scientific papers published last week, the conclusion was stark – ocean warming has significantly contributed to a reduction in sustainable fish catches by 15% to 35%.

Science magazine’s March 1, 2019 publication states …”Fisheries provide food and support livelihoods across the world. They are also under extreme pressure, with many stocks over-fished and poorly managed. Climate change adds to the burden fish stocks bear, but such impacts remain to be fully quantified.

“We were stunned to find that fisheries around the world have already responded to ocean warming,” according to work published by Pinsky and his colleagues.

Another study showed that achieving the 2C climate change target set out in the Paris agreement would protect almost 10m tons of fish catches each year, worth tens of billions of dollars.

They found that an overall reduction in fishery yields has occurred over the past 80 years. Although some species are predicted to respond positively to warming waters, the majority will experience a negative impact on growth. As our world warms, responsible and active management of fisheries harvests will become even more important.

Over-fishing reduces reproduction rates in fish populations and warming damage the habitat. When the water around them warms, the added strain makes these already weakened populations more susceptible to collapse, according to the study, which goes on to state, “Over fishing makes populations of fish more vulnerable to climate change, and climate change is hindering our abilities to rebuild over-fished fish populations.”

Other research found that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees would result in an annual catch of fish that is 9.5 million metric tons higher than in the 3.5 degrees scenario. That represents a difference of more than $23 billion in annual revenue for fishers and seafood workers.

“That is huge,” said Rashid Sumaila, the study’s lead author and director of the Fisheries Economics Research Unit at the University of British Columbia’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries.

Roughly 90 percent of the catch that would be protected by limiting warming to 1.5 degrees would occur within the territorial waters of developing countries, many of which are in tropical regions that are highly dependent on fish and have contributed little to greenhouse gas emissions, Sumaila said.

A second study, published in the journal Science Advances, considered the extent to which global fisheries would benefit if global warming is limited to the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as compared to a “business-as-usual” pathway based on current greenhouse gas mitigation policies that would bring 3.5 degrees of warming.

Conclusion

In the space of one week, several credible scientific publications have underscored that unless we (which includes Hawai’i) take evasive action, our future oceans will (do) have fewer fish, fewer whales and frequent and dramatic shifts in the marine ecosystem – all together, these human-caused changes will have significant environmental and economic implications for humans who depend on the ocean, which not only includes Hawai’i, but most of humanity.

This past week a New York Times op ed written by former Secretary of State, John Kerry offered a clear message to Hawai’i, America, and the world” “Forget Trump. We All Must Act on Climate Change”.  

During last week’s third anniversary of the Paris climate agreement, the Trump administration marked it by working with Russia and Gulf oil nations to sideline science and undermine the accord at climate talks underway in Katowice, Poland.  At the same time, I’ve been reading Bob Woodward’s fascinating and somewhat sympathetic book of insights on inside the Trump White House, titled ‘FEAR’.   During a Boston appearance last week Woodward also revealed to his audience a remarkable admission: The president, he said, “makes decisions often without a factual basis.”   This isn’t a mere personality quirk of the leader of the free world. It is profoundly dangerous for the entire planet.  

Kerry who was instrumental in spearheading the Paris Accord on behalf of America, went on to write ‘… Scientists tell us we must act now to avoid the ravages of climate change. The collision of facts and alternative facts has hurt America’s efforts to confront this existential crisis. Ever since Mr. Trump announced that he would pull America out of the Paris accord, those of us in the fight have worked to demonstrate that the American people are still in.

But the test is not whether the nation’s cities and states can make up for Mr. Trump’s rejection of reality. They can. The test is whether the nations of the world will pull out of the mutual suicide pact that we’ve all passively joined through an inadequate response to this crisis.

Talk to leaders who are gathered in Poland. They acknowledge that we aren’t close to getting the job done in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that warm the planet. People are dying today because of climate change, and many more will die and trillions of dollars of damage to property will occur unless America gets back in the fight’. 

Hurricanes Maria, Harvey and Irma cost the United States some $265 billion in damages. Historic droughts are matched by historic floods. Heat waves stole 153 billion hours of labor globally last year. Infectious diseases are moving into new areas and higher altitudes. Crop yields are down in more than two dozen countries, and by 2050 the Midwestern United States could see agricultural productivity drop to its lowest level in decades — and this is a mere preview of what’s to come.

The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that the changes required to hold global warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), as called for in the Paris agreement, would require changes on a scale with “no documented historic precedent.’  Fossil fuel emissions are forecast to go up by 2.7 percent worldwide this year.  Instead of reining them in, the Trump administration would unleash more —

• First, it replaced the previous Clean Power Plan with an EPA rule that now allows power plants to unload 12 times more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; a throwback and lifeline to make coal great again.
• Second, instead of controlling vehicle fuel emissions, the Trump administration is rolling back fuel economy standards that the auto industry had previously embraced and that would have saved hundreds of millions dollars for consumers in fuel costs.
• Third, instead of keeping a lid on methane, EPA rule changes now in the works will make it more likely that this highly potent greenhouse gas will be freely discharged by oil and gas extractors and refineries into the atmosphere, further accelerating global warming.

It is as if the Trump administration’s energy and environmental policies are based on 1950’s science and norms of that time, free from the reality of social, economic, and environmental consequences of pollution and policies bent on destroying planetary norms in which all life, including Republicans and Democrats alike, are equally dependent.

What About Hawai’i – climate change means Hawaii faces real time threats from rising temperatures, rising oceans, and super storms

Scientists tell us we must act now to avoid the ravages of global warming, and Hawai’i is far from being exempt from the consequences of a warming planet.

Climate change will eventually affect nearly every aspect of life in Hawaii.   Rising air and ocean temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and changing ocean chemistry are already affecting people and individual ecosystems across Hawaii’s chain of islands.

Because Hawai’i and the Pacific Islands are almost entirely dependent upon imported food, fuel, and material, the vulnerability of ports and airports to extreme events, sea level rise, and increasing wave heights is an a increasing concern and projected likelihood for which Hawaii is not prepared.

Future generations will measure us by whether we acted on facts, not just debated or denied them. The verdict will hang on whether we put in place policies that will drive the development and deployment of clean technologies, re-energize our economies, and tackle global climate change.

‘If we fail, future generations will judge us all as failures, not just this president.’   John F. Kerry

IPCC Climate Report  and Sea Level Rise in Hawai’i

Eight of the world’s 10 largest cities are located near a coast.  Hawaii, an island state, is surrounded by coastlines and as sea levels rise, Hawaii’s residents and economy along with millions of people around the world are affected by increased coastal flooding and coastal erosion, as well as higher storm surges which are moving further inland.

We’re not talking about something happening in 10 – 20 years. We’re talking about something happening right now – and unless we act, the danger will only grow.

According to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, if we can limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (instead of the 2 degree target many policymakers use) by 2100, we’ll see slower sea-level rise and give vulnerable island nations and coastal communities more time to prepare and adapt. We have the power to determine what the future looks like for future generations, and it’s our responsibility to use it. 

We have to think big and act quickly if we want to keep global warming at levels we can live with.    

That’s the inevitable conclusion from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest report, Global Warming of 1.5ºC. In case you don’t spend every day deciphering UN acronyms, the IPCC is the voice of the world’s top climate scientists. The organization brings together literally thousands of scientists and researchers working in every related field from atmospheric sciences to marine biology and on every continent to distill what we know about what’s happening to our planet, and more specifically, Hawai’i.

What the IPCC found – and the 2018 report details – should be a wakeup call to the world.  The key findings in the IPCC report that every citizen and politician should be concerned about can be summed up in this three findings:

1- WE’RE ALREADY AT 1 DEGREE – HOW MUCH HOTTER IS UP TO US – The report estimates that since the Industrial Revolution, human activity (i.e. burning fossil fuels) has already put enough carbon pollution into the atmosphere to raise global mean temperatures by one degree.  All the pollution already in the atmosphere will keep trapping heat for years, whatever we do.  Which is to say, how much global warming impacts continue and increase from now is in our hands.

2- THERE’S A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND A 1.5 DEGREES TEMPERATURE INCREASE – AND A HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 DEGREES – The report details a host of likely results of reaching 1.5 degrees of warming: storms growing even more powerful; oceans becoming more acidic and killing off major sections of coral; whole sections of landmasses transforming from one ecosystem to another. Truly, the list goes on and there’s every reason to be very, very concerned.  Things get outright terrifying at 2 degrees increase: massive ecosystem losses not seen since the last ice age; potentially irreversible melting of ice sheets triggering sea-level rise affecting millions; species extinction; annual fishery catches declining by up to 3 million tons.

3- IT’S 2030 OR BUST –  Because all the greenhouse gases we emit today have a nasty habit of sticking around in the atmosphere a very long time – we have only a short window to radically reduce emissions if we want to keep warming to 1.5 degrees.  That window closes – more or less – around 2030.  As the report outlines, if we want to hold the line to 1.5 degrees, we have to slash emissions by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030. Then we have to reach net-zero around 2050.  These are reductions planet-wide. After 2030, all signs point to greater levels of greenhouse gases starting a domino effect of climate risks we can’t accurately predict but are pretty sure no one wants to see.

In some ways, the huge changes we need to see by 2030 make the next decade feel like a planet-wide psychology experiment. With the future of the world literally at stake, will we change?

The simple answer is that we have to. Yes, it’s a big ask. Yes, it will be hard. But so was reaching the South Pole in 1911. So was putting a man on the moon. So was eradicating smallpox. The difference this time is that it’s not up to a crack team of explorers or scientists.

It’s up to all of us.  Corrective measures by each of us can make a big difference between success in tackling climate change or failure, such as what food we eat (fossil fuel intensive or not) and where it came from (local or imported from great distances), how much energy we use and where it came from (the sun and wind or fossil fuels), and so on.  Everyone is a consumer of planetary resources, and the by-products of this global consumption is waste and pollution in various forms, often contributing to greenhouse gases threatening the planetary system on which we all depend.     One thing is certain, we can no longer deny our role, responsibility, and contribution to global climate change, or the scientific call to action. 

You may recall the frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death.

Like the frog in left in a pot of boiling water, we humans hold the means to stop heating up the planet and saving ourselves, or we can ignore the signs of climate change happening all around us and suffer the consequences of our inaction and indifference.   

Hawai’i Island Dodges A Bullet, As Tropical Storm (Olivia) Defies Worst Case Hurricane Expectations

— Final Update : Tuesday, Sept. 12. 2018, AM

Olivia, as of Wednesday morning, is no longer a Cat 1 Hurricane.  Now, a much less powerful Tropical Storm, Olivia is presently moving west towards Maui at 12 mph and passing the Big Island farther to the north than originally forecast.  Olivia is still packing winds averaging 25-35 mph and remains a wind and flooding threat to islands north of Hawai’i Island.

Future 2018 hurricane season threats for Hawai’i will encounter a strengthening El Nino (fueled by global warming emissions absorbed by the Earth’s oceans), and that is presently increasing water temperatures to significantly higher levels than is average throughout the island chain — in effect, providing the added fuel for supercharging future hurricanes.

Olivia, like Lane before it are the new storm norm – increasingly unpredictable, more powerful, and with the potential for greater destructive force, social, economic, and environmental impacts, and loss of life.  “Because of the warm waters surrounding the islands this year, we may continue to see tropical storms and hurricanes maintain more strength as they approach Hawaii not only from the south, but also the east.  If Olivia were to remain a hurricane when moving through the islands this would be something that has never happened,” according to AccuWeather (Sept. 10-2018).

Also, 2018-19 is now shaping up for a repeat performance by El Nino and for the Hawaiian Islands.  Locally, this new ElNino event will likely add stress and new impacts to Hawai’i Island’s already impacted western reef system and coral, devastated by the El Nino event of 2015-16, that set unrepresented water temperature records linked to climate change, including ocean acidification: (http://www.noaa.gov/resource-collections/ocean-acidification).

originally published August 28th, 2018 — 

Hurricane Lane, What it Revealed…

Hurricane Lane was a lesson in uncertainty for many of Hawaii’s residents, businesses, and vacationers looking for a good time in some form other than dodging the uncertainty of a slow moving and unpredictable Cat 5 hurricane.

How well prepared are our island country governments, the state as a whole, Hawaii’s residents and businesses, emergency responders for Lane-like hurricane results that at times seemed to defy traditional weather models and thinking?

With decades of scientific findings and experience, weather forecasting remains a hit and miss exercise for the public by failing to connect the dots between weather and climate change.  Rising sea levels, unprecedented melting of the polar regions, a changing jet stream: all are connected to the arrival of 100 year storms occurring every 1 to 2 years.  Rising global temperatures are also fueling extreme droughts, fires, flooding, storm intensity and duration, and changing the very nature of weather itself– all of which seemed far fetched in the not too recent past.

Global Warming, or as some call it, global weirding, explains a lot about how 21st century storms have changed and are continuing to change. Hurricane Lane turned into a Cat 5 monster, moving slower (at times less than 6 mph) than traditional storms through Hawai’i islands track. Today, storm tracking is less predictable, and storms are moving slower which is magnifying the duration and total rainfall released, along with increased wind speeds as the new norm.

Case in point, Hurricane Lane dumped an unprecedented amount of rain on what seemed like for Hilo area residents, rain for days on end.  Hurricane Lane is the second wettest tropical cyclone to hit the United States, after Hurricane Harvey in 2017.  In addition, Lane was the wettest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Hawaii, surpassing Hurricane Hiki of 1950. A maximum of 52.02 inches (1,321 mm) of rain was recorded at Mountainview, Hawaii on August 26. Hawaii Island’s famous Rainbow Falls resembled Niagara Falls from Lane’s unceasing rainfall, while the storm created unprecedented Big Island flooding problems.

Bring Science into Policy Decisions

Hurricane Lane is the latest example of  how the traditional “cone of uncertainty” forecast models, still used to predict weather and hurricane tracks, are increasingly incomplete and uncertain as a public planning tool for all stakeholders. With all the technology available, an incomplete set of data parameters can only produce  an incomplete picture for analysis and forecasting.  Today’s weather  forecasting tools largely ignore climate science and the veracity of scientific findings that help us better understand events now shaping our world’s weather and storm behavior.

Bigger, Stronger, Dangerous

Last year’s Hurricane Harvey produced record rainfall – Harvey was a 1,000-year flood event unprecedented in scale. More than 30 inches of rain fell over an area of 11,000 plus square miles) equivalent in size to the state of Maryland. Another 40 inches of rain from Harvey drenched an additional 3,400 square miles encompassing Texas and other gulf states.

Texas, which is accustomed to hurricanes and has the infrastructure needed to evacuate large quantities of storm water (unlike Hawai’i), but was totally unprepared for the flooding and destruction that Harvey delivered in 2017.

Hurricanes, like Harvey and Lane, and as others have shown that these thermodynamic storm systems can withdraw massive amounts of energy from the ocean and expel it into the atmosphere, all being fueled by warmer seas (the result of CO2 loading into the world’s oceans from unabated burning of fossil fuels). The warmer ocean temperature fuels storm intensity and supercharges higher winds, with slower storm tracks producing more intense rainfall by duration and amount (as was the case for Lane). The end result, a greater likelihood for destructive storm surges and coastal flooding amplified by raising sea levels.

The stunning combination of extreme strength and longevity supports the case for weather linkage to climate change, evidence that continues to grow with each new hurricane season.

Storms, Cause & Effect – What Can be Done

1. Assumptions governing the design and development of water runoff must change, including: water catchment systems, cesspools, and municipal waste water management systems, roadways, bridges, residential and commercial buildings storm and water runoff management, etc.   In short, past storm management assumptions must be updated to a new climate reality that now includes stronger and longer storm intensities with greater rainfall.
2. Greater state and county resource response must be factored in budgeting processes and readiness.  Our hats off to the impressive level of cooperation between government agencies and the private industries that help to keep the islands running during Hurricane Lane. But this remarkable response also came on backs of Federal, State, and County emergency resources already deployed in an on-going response to Kauai storm-related flooding and recent Kilauea eruption impacts on the Big Island.  Clearly, an ongoing and coordinated effort at the state and county levels on emergency-response policy goals and implementation, prioritized to individual island needs is long overdue.  —  There is also the need for Hawai’i to address the individual differences and needs, island-by-island, for emergency preparedness, and storm impact mitigation.  It is the latter that requires greater attention by state and local governments in producing an upgraded infrastructure and storm-hardening of critical systems.  Needed are immediate infrastructure upgrades, including better waste and water management systems that address run-off intensity and flooding from supercharged and climate-fueled storm systems. All this will require reforming and aligning Hawaii’s building codes and infrastructure designed to meet the response needs of 21st century weather realities and challenges.
3. Supply chain limitations of island living, combined with limited storage of essential supplies in the wake of and the aftermath of a major storm is another component of storm readiness.  Increasingly, stronger storm events are producing longer term consequences for Hawaii’s social, economic, and environmental sectors. Distributed storage centers for supplies for each island (county) need to be readied to meet essential public supply needs for clean water, food and fuel and are ready to address supply needs beyond the current weekly supply-distribution cycles.  If and when Oahu is the primary target of the next major Hurricane, by extension, the supply chain of which life in Hawai’i is dependent will likely be significantly disrupted, and with long term consequences. Hurricane Lane demonstrated just how lucky Hawai’i fared overall, because Oahu, and the state’s supply chain port hub Honolulu, dodged a bullet from this storm – less by planning and readiness, and more by luck and circumstances.
4. Accelerate Hawaii’s  transition to a clean energy economy. The electric grid and the power consumed represents the second largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, just behind transportation. Global wind and solar developers took 40 years to install their first trillion watts of power generation capacity, and the next trillion may be finished within the next five years (source Bloomberg).  Hawaii Electric, Hawaii’s primary electricity provider, must reform its current strategy of prolonging its supply chain dependency on imported dirty energy and on an Oahu-based centralized fuel refining, processing and distribution system in order to power its multi-island utility customer base. The HEI energy business model, dependent on fossil fuels, is fueling climate change, and by extension, impacts to Hawai’i.  Solar and wind fuel replacement opportunities abound, and in combination with distributed residential and commercial solar installation coupled to localized battery storage options, microgrids — all together, clean energy technology is here — and the transition to a clean energy is cost effective enough for HEI to fully embrace a complete zero emissions power production and management capability, and one that will deliver greater grid reality against major storm events.
5. Hawaii’s state legislature must immediately address the current deficiencies within the state’s Renewable Energy Portfolio standard which allows both dirty and clean energy replacement options of fossil fuels that allow for utilities to meet the state’s 2045 100% RPS goal with a mix of both emissions-laden and emissions-free energy replacement options of traditional imported fossil fuels.

Time is Not On Our Side

If a 100-year flood event occurs, that does NOT mean that people are ‘safe’ for 99 years. The risk of having the storm flooding in any given year is the same,” regardless of whether it occurred recently. Ditto for 500-year, and 1,000 year floods, as was the case with Hurricane Harvey in 2017.   For the past 20 years, storm – climate linkage studies and modeling continue to be refined, but basic science and linkage data has been established.  The current Federal Government Administration has demonstrated little interest in addressing the causes associated with global warming, in fact, this current Administration is deploying energy and environmental policies that accelerate the effects and impacts of burning more fossil fuels, not lessen them; fueling the fire of global warming.

As the climate warms (recent studies show), future hurricanes will not only be more powerful and destructive, but will likely occur both in and out of season — extending the Central Pacific Hurricane season threat into the late spring or late fall/early winter.

Hawai’i state, with its fragmented multi-island topography and separate county governments too often competing for state resources, cannot afford to continue to travel at a leisurely pace in developing and acting on policies designed to address the cause and effects of a new climate reality.

Nor can Hawai’i state expect a Federal Government bail-out from FEMA for all future major storm events.  The trajectory for Federal FEMA funding and ability to respond is unsustainable as simultaneous super storm events and year-round fires impact mainland states.  Hawai’i must proactively prepare through state, County, and private sector partnerships that are ready to address the storm mitigation needs of the state.

More must be done, and now.  Recently, the state undertook a study on climate effects of sea level rise.  The study focused on the potential impacts to Honolulu, Maui, and Kauai, largely ignoring the low lying and ocean facing vulnerabilities of Kona Airport, Hawaii island East and West port facilities, the downtown areas of Kailua and Hilo — all of which are at or near sea level and subject to storm surge and other related impacts, and increasingly so as time passes. A total state approach to planning and mitigation actions must be seriously undertaken.

The science of climate change is nearly 150 years old, tracing its roots back to the industrial age of the 19th century, when coal was king, and burning this dirtiest of fuels laid the foundation for today’s increasing global temperatures.

As uncertain as predicting weather is, even in the 21st century, and the current Administration’s de-funding and policy ignorance of climate science, leads us to one conclusion — Hawai’i cannot afford to be less prepared than is possible and practical in readying the state for the on-going impacts of climate change, with or without Federal assistance.

Global scientific efforts continue to evolve in both accuracy and validation, as scientists witness once a forecast, climate effects now unfolding — and now playing out in our lifetime.