The TV news anchor calmly reported”… “A crucial ocean circulation is showing signs of instability. Its shutdown would have serious impacts on our weather.”

A graph appeared in the TV screen as she dutifully read her script: “A crucial system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean that helps control temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and has implications for the entire planet’s weather systems is showing signs of instability due to human-made climate change, scientists say.  Its collapse would have dire consequences for our weather and life on Earth.”

Hotter heat waves, stronger hurricanes

Marine Impacts

Global weather patterns are critically linked to the circulation and its transport of heat and nutrients around the planet. A collapse of this system would result in significant and abrupt changes, including fast sea level rise, more extreme winters in Western Europe and disruptions to hurricane and monsoon systems in the Pacific and tropics.

THE CLIMATE SCIENCE

A famous 1960’s song opens with “There’s something happening here, but what it is ain’t exactly clear“… A 4,000 page draft report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes whatever isn’t clear now perfectly clear in the most recent scientific Climate findings and projections on Earthbound warming impacts.

The in-depth report concludes with these three fundamental warnings in which the public, politicians, and business should heed:

1. Unless drastic and immediate action is taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and keep global temperatures from rising further, life on earth is poised for a catastrophic reckoning
2. Mankind may have already missed its opportunity to keep the climate from passing a series of thresholds that will further spur the warming of the planet   
3. Life on Earth can recover from a drastic climate shift by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems, the report goes onto state, “Humans cannot”

Tipping points and feedback loops, are perhaps best exemplified by ever increasing melting of the Artic permafrost, which in turn releases methane gas trapped in the ice and then into the atmosphere. Methane releases further amplify the greenhouse gas effect, pushing temperatures even higher. As a result of the melting of the polar ice caps and loss of sea ice, the earth absorbs far more of the sun’s ultraviolet radiation and heat, which further contributes to ice melt.

Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center is not optimistic. “…It’s not just because of those feedbacks, it’s because we’ve already put so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and that carbon dioxide lasts a very long time,” “A molecule of carbon dioxide, on average, lasts about 100 years in the atmosphere. So we haven’t yet felt the impacts of the carbon dioxide that we’ve already put in the atmosphere.”

The report warns of “progressively serious, centuries’ long and, in some cases, irreversible consequences.” The report also said that the millions of people who live along coastlines almost everywhere around the world could be battered by multiple climate calamities at once: drought, heatwaves, cyclones, wildfires and flooding.

Nothing in the IPCC report should be a surprise, as all the information comes from the scientific literature. But put together, the stark message is that increasingly severe heatwaves, fires, floods and droughts are coming our way with dire global impacts, and Hawaii’s remoteness will not protect us from the consequences of humankind’s unabated burning of fossil fuels.

On top of this are the irreversible changes now underway. These tipping points, such as where high temperatures and droughts means the world’s forests (temperate and rainforests) may not survive. Altogether, Climate-induced tipping points will be like toppling dominoes, with social, environmental and economic damages impacting food supplies, transportation, energy, industry and social infrastructures within the next few decades – impacts which are already well underway and accelerating.

THE ECONOMY

Climate change is already taking a toll on the global economy, and forecasts predict worse is to come by mid-century (2050).

In a worst-case scenario, if Earth’s temperature rises four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, global GDP could decline 10 to 23 percent compared to a world without warming

• Expected damages for 136 major coastal cities were calculated at between $1.6 trillion and $3.2 trillion by 2050 in a worst-case scenario without adaptation
• Storm surges enhanced by sea level rise threaten more than 40 percent of coastal nuclear power plants worldwide
• Nearly 14 percent of the world’s sandy beaches face severe erosion or elimination by 2050, even under the most moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario (island states like Hawaii will be hardest hit)
• Average global economic damage due to floods over the last several decades has averaged $50 billion to $350 billion annually, depending on methods of calculation (the Property and Casualty insurance industry in the United States accounted for nearly three quarters of trillion USD in premiums written in 2019 – and are now facing severe economic adjustments in this new climate reality)
• In Africa alone, a decline in rainfall from 1960 to 2000, attributed to climate change, widened the GDP gap between Africa and the rest of the developing world by 15 to 40 percent.  Heat and scarce rain are adding obstacles to global agricultural, but presently hardest hit is Africa. with a highly uncertain economic future, while facing greater social instability and forced migration – which in turn will produce ripple effects far beyond the region

In the Asia-Pacific region, rising sea levels are threatening to cause havoc across Asia-Pacific, from Bangladesh to China to Australia. The IPCC projects sea level rise up to 1.1 meters by 2100.

• In South Asia, water-related impacts of climate change are expected to reduce GDP up to 2.5 percent by 2050 if global warming exceeds two degrees Celsius
• Asia could experience direct losses of nearly $170 billion with half-a-meter of sea level rise, and damages will be concentrated in China
• In Bangladesh, for example, one-third of power plants may need to be relocated by 2030 due to sea-level rise, and even more so is the case with Japan nuclear energy dependent economy
• Climate-induced loss in Australian agricultural and labor productivity could exceed $14 billion by 2030 and $159 billion by 2050, and these figures do not account for economic losses associated with climate-driven die-off (now underway) of the Country’s Great Barrier Reef marine ecosystem.

AND HAWAII; sea-level rise is accelerating

Sea level rise is a statewide problem with the entire Hawaiian chain of islands impacted.  The sea level off Hawaii’s various coastlines is up to 10 inches higher than it was in 1950.

For MAUI, sea level rise impacts are mostly due to ice melting into the ocean and is causing major issues.  With sea-level rise, an increase in wave plus tide-driven flooding has led to worsening coastal erosion in the Honokōwai area of West Maui in recent years.

For HAWAII ISLAND, the sea level around Hilo Bay, Hawaii, has risen by 10 inches since 1950. Its speed of rise has accelerated over the last ten years and it’s now rising by about 1 inch every 4 years. Scientists know this because the sea level is measured every 6 minutes using equipment like satellites, floating buoys off the coast, and tidal gauges to accurately measure the local sea level as it accelerates and changes.

And for OAHU, increases in sea level currently threatens Honolulu’s famous Waikīkī district.

Droughts, floods, and fire …

Weather intensity swings in Hawaii are increasingly impacting the islands.

Hawaii may be graced with tropical forests, making parts of the islands some of the wettest places on the planet, but it is also increasingly vulnerable to wildfires. Heavy rains encourage unfettered growth of invasive species, including guinea grass, and dry, hot summers make them highly flammable.

Similar to the American West, where dozens of large blazes have raged in recent weeks and fire seasons have grown worse over the years because of extreme weather patterns and climate change, about two-thirds of Hawaii faces unusually dry conditions this summer.

Some of the recent fires, especially on the Big Island and the island of Maui, ravaged areas spanning about 10,000 acres. From 2018 through last year, at least 75,107 acres across the islands have been lost to wildfires, by far the most devastating stretch in a decade and a half.

While the fires showcase several challenges that Hawaii shares with states in the West, including the spread of highly flammable invasive grasses, authorities in Hawaii also cite other factors that make Hawaii unique. Those include big shifts in rainfall patterns over the archipelago and tourism’s eclipse of large-scale farming in Hawaii’s economy, allowing nonnative plants to overtake idled sugar cane and pineapple plantations.

Solutions?

Hawaii can be complicated because each island is affected differently by sea level rise and flooding, but the impact is felt by all islands collectively.

The state is planning over $6 billion in sea level rise solutions, which include port and canal improvements, dredging, and restoration of wetland habitats.

Extreme flooding events in some U.S. coastal areas could double every five years if sea levels continue to rise as expected, according to a study published in Scientific Reports.

Today’s “once-in-a-lifetime” extreme water levels— are currently occurring every decade— and are projected to be exceeded by daily event along most of the U.S. coastline before the end of the 21st century.

The return on investment in converting to a clean energy economy, and as a result, capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius rather than two degrees would increase per capita GDP five percent across the developing world and potentially more so for developed economies by mid-century. UN estimates project up to 20 percent increase in global GDP by 2100. Even more importantly, a rapid transition to a clean energy will help ensure a prosperous and healthy future for Hawaii and the planet.

Major steps forward —

Hawaii had a very productive 2021 legislative session, passing several laws which pave the way to the state’s clean energy future and protecting stakeholders from sea level rise impacts.  Gov. David Ige signed unto law the following bills addressing climate change:

HB 243 requires state agencies to identify facilities that are susceptible to sea level rise and flooding.   The agencies also will need to send an annual report to the governor. The state is also required to prepare mitigation plans for these facilities.

SB 474, requires anyone selling a home to disclose if the property lies in a sea level rise exposure area.  According to a 2017 report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the global mean sea level will rise 3.2 feet by 2100. In a more extreme scenario, that level can be reached by 2060.

An enormous iceberg, a little bigger than the state of Rhode Island, has broken off of Antarctica.

The iceberg broke off the western side of the Ronne Ice Shelf in Antarctica’s Weddell Sea, as observed by the European Space Agency (ESA).

The finger-shaped chunk of ice, which is roughly 105 miles (170 kilometers) long and 15 miles (25 kilometers) wide, was spotted by satellites as it calved from the western side of Antarctica’s Ronne Ice Shelf, according to the European Space Agency. The berg is now floating freely on the Weddell Sea, a large bay in the western Antarctic.

The 1,667-square-mile iceberg—is now the world’s biggest…

Almost 90% of the glacial area in the world is in Antarctica, which is crucial to our climate.

The bright white spots act like a protective cover over the Earth and our oceans, reflecting excess heat back into space to keep the planet cooler. But because of our greenhouse gas pollution, our glaciers are rapidly melting, which only further speeds up dangerous warming of our earth.

Our planet’s ecosystems are intricately intertwined, so when polar ice melts, it has far-reaching consequences.

For instance, rapid melting of the polar ice caps causes less heat to be repelled back into space and creates a feed-back loop resulting in warmer poles and a warmer planet. That in turn not only creates an even greater loss of sea ice that animals like polar bears and walruses rely on for their habitat, but the entire ocean ecosystem is impacted.

The consequences of polar melting don’t just impact animals, it directly harm humans.  

The polar regions and current climate-induced meltdown, the result of accelerated global warming, puts the whole planet at greater risk of the dangers we are already seeing – fires, storm surges, drought and other destabilizing forces that put our island communities at risk.

The wild waters of the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica are one of the planet’s biggest carbon stores.

The ocean absorbs around 12% of all carbon dioxide generated by humans each year, but despite its huge importance in regulating the Earth’s climate, it has barely been studied by science.

Melting glaciers change ocean currents by introducing cold water to warmer oceans. This changes the habitats of countless animals and has been linked to the collapse of fisheries.

We’re becoming used to constant news showing greater disasters around the world, rising temperatures in every region, and record-breaking glacial collapse.  Scientists have been telling us for years that we need to act now in order to avoid devastating consequences now underway.

Related Climate News

California is at the edge of another protracted drought, just a few years after one of the worst dry spells in state history left poor and rural communities without well water, triggered major water restrictions in cities, forced farmers to idle their fields, killed millions of trees, and fueled devastating megafires.

– Food supply is the next climate victim

Last week, the unofficial end of California’s wet season, officials announced that the accumulation of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains and the Cascades was about 40% below average levels. The state doesn’t have enough snow and rain banked to replenish its groundwater supplies, feed its rivers and streams or fill depleted reservoirs.

Just four years since the state’s last drought emergency, experts and advocates say the state isn’t ready to cope with what could be months and possibly years of drought to come. Heading into the summer, battles are heating up between cities, farms and environmentalists over how scarce supplies are rationed.

Many of the state’s reservoirs are at extremely low capacity and levels are expected to drop further in the coming months. Already, the state’s 154 major reservoirs are collectively at 71% of where they typically are on average. Federal climate analysts with the National Integrated Drought Information System called the outlook for California’s reservoir levels recovery “grim” in their most recent report.

California is America’s primary produce supplier and diversified agricultural exporter to Hawaii and other states.

California’s drought will result in supply shortages and higher food costs for consumers.

A third of global food production will be at risk by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current rate, new research suggests.

Many of the world’s most important food-growing areas will see temperatures increase and rainfall patterns alter drastically if temperatures rise by about 3.7C, the forecast increase if emissions stay high.

Researchers at Aalto University in Finland have calculated that about 95% of current crop production takes place in areas they define as “safe climatic space”, or conditions where temperature, rainfall and aridity fall within certain bounds.

If temperatures were to rise by 3.7C or thereabouts by the century’s end, that safe area would shrink drastically, mostly affecting south and south-eastern Asia and Africa’s Sudano-Sahelian zone.

– Onward to a Hotter World –

Over the past decade, scientists have been able to produce a far more nuanced picture of how temperature rise affects the complexities of cloud cover and atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns and ecology.

• We’re looking at vast dead zones in the oceans as nutrients from fertilizer runoff combine with warmer waters to produce an explosion in algae that starve marine life of oxygen.

• This will be exacerbated by the acidity from dissolved CO₂, which will cause a mass die-off, particularly of shellfish, plankton and coral.

• “We will have lost all the reefs decades before 2100 – at somewhere between 2C and 4C,” says Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

• Sea levels will be perhaps two meters higher and, more worryingly, we will be well on our way to an ice-free world, having passed the tipping points for the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets, committing us to at least 10 meters of sea-level rise in coming centuries

PGV is the first and only commercially-productive geothermal electrical plant in Hawaii. Constructed on a site adjacent to failed experimental wells drilled and operated by the Hawaii Geothermal Project in the 1970s and 80s, construction on the generating facility began in 1989 and was completed in 1993.

Prior to 2018 Kilauea eruption and subsequent lava damage to the plant, PGV had an installed generating capacity of 38 MW from six production wells and five injection wells within Kilauea’s East rift volcano zone.

The PGV’s geothermal power output was sold to the Hawaiian Electric Industries (HELCO) under a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with the utility. The PGV claims to have generated up to 10% of the island’s utility energy at the beginning of 2018, just prior to the eruption.

Volcanic Changes Could Spell Trouble for PGV

Since the operational inception of PGV area island residents have complained of a chocking stench of hydrogen sulfide and sulfur dioxide, as well as rumbling noises and vibration (allegedly due to PGV’s near continuous drilling operations). 

Local residents concerns regarding the plant’s drilling operations are many, including an alleged and unproven link to Lower East Rift Zone eruptions and the plant’s drilling operations on what the scientific community consider the world’s most active volcano.

One thing is for certain the 2018 eruption in the Lower East Rift Zone is a reminder of the dramatically altered the physical environment, destroyed the substation, and event that forced an emergency shutdown of PGV operation and power production.  PGV was in fact incredibly lucky as the potential for much greater plant damage from a volcanic eruption remains a constant reminder of Kilauea’s active volcanism.

State Sen. Russell Ruderman of Puna described the images of the 2018 eruption with lava nearly surrounding PGV plant this way… “Even if you don’t know anything more than that, it’s obviously not the place to put any critical infrastructure.”

Since the 2018 eruption, Kilauea continues to see movement of fresh magma into the rift zone indicating a very dynamic situation.   Kilauea’s intruded magma at depth has altered the discrete pocket of geothermal fluids that the plant uses for power.

It is no longer a brine dominated resource which indicates that the plumbing has changed. Water trapped in the dike complex within the rift may have been driven out and that process may continue raising questions of the PGV’s long term viability.

Another factor facing PGV is the “clean” and renewable energy marketplace which offers energy alternatives of less risk, and are potentially more price and performance competitive, e.g. solar-wind-storage.

Then there are recent changes in the state’s regulatory framework.  Subsequently, the PUC has adopted rules with greater detail that have the effect of law.

The state legislature also adopted the Ratepayers Protection Act in 2018 which set up performance standards and incentives to encourage faster movement to renewables while bringing costs down for consumers. It is the latter point that may spell the greatest challenge to PGV’s future plans.

In short, there are several good reasons, which are in the public’s and ratepayer interests, for the PUC to require PGV to provide the Agency with a (supplemental) SEIS at this time.

PGV requests a compromise… the PUC responds

The Hawaii PUC’s recent docket now contains an amended and restated Power Purchase Agreement, which the PUC has placed “on hold” requiring a supplemental EIS (Environmental Impact Statement), as much has changed since 1993.

The whole point of an environmental review within the EIS is so the PUC has available to it essential information in meeting its regulatory obligations and to support its decision process. It isn’t just a paperwork exercise as some might allege.

In response, PGV recently proposed to the PUC a “compromise”.

The comprise proposed by PGV places the EIS decision process with other less qualified agencies who do not share the PUC’s public interest mission, and more to the point, that the PUC proceed processing PGV’s amended Power Purchase Agreement request without delay or further due diligence – hardly a compromise.

The denial of a continued waiver from PGV participating in a competitive bidding process seems likely to follow, which is likely driving PGV’s urgent compromise ploy.

If the PUC were to continue to allow PGV’s non-competition wavier, holding open the waiver while PGV pursues a (supplemental) EIS, then it makes no sense, at least until more fundamental questions are addressed.

But for PGV, the loss of a waiver could be a major setback for PGV’s expansion plans, as there are no current solicitations for renewable energy projects on the Big Island currently open.

—

The PUC has responded, reinforcing its SEIS fulfillment requirement of PGV.

Climate change presents Hawaii and mid-Pacific Islands with a set of unique challenges including: rising temperatures, sea-level rise, contamination of freshwater resources with saltwater, coastal erosion, an increase in extreme weather events, coral reef bleaching, and ocean acidification. Hawaii’s marine coral systems were significantly damaged during an unprecedented warming event of 2015-16, which killed off over 90% of native coral in some coastal areas and permanently damaged West Hawaii’s once robust coral system.

Scientific studies project for the rest of the 21st century a continuing rise in air and ocean surface temperatures for the Pacific, increased hurricane intensities and the frequency of extreme weather events. Along with these changes, increased rainfall during the summer months and a decrease in rainfall during the winter months.

In Hawai’i, the annual rainfall has decreased and surface temperatures have risen during the last several decades, but it is unknown whether these trends will persist or be enhanced through global climate change. Coastal areas will certainly be at increased risk due to greater hurricane wind speeds and coastal inundation due to the combined effects of sea-level rise and storm surges, e.g. West Maui today.

Since 1950, temperatures across the Hawaiian Islands have risen by about 2°F.

Temperatures in Honolulu have increased by 2.3°F over this period and have consistently been above the 1951–1980 average since 1975 (Figure 2).

Both the number of hot days (days with maximum temperature above 90°F) and number of warm nights (days with minimum temperature above 75°F) have been near to above average since 1980.

The rate of temperature increase is greatest at high elevations, far exceeding the global average rate of change. The annual number of days below freezing is decreasing over time, as is the diurnal temperature range, largely due to nighttime warming.

Temperatures in Hawai‘i (orange line) have risen about 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century.

Historically unprecedented warming is projected during the 21st century.

Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest years being about as warm as the hottest year in the historical record; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest years being about 8°F warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading).

Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.

Observed changes (compared to the 1951–1980 average) in annual near-surface air temperature for four stations in Hawai‘i: Līhu‘e, Kaua‘i (red line), Honolulu, O‘ahu (blue line), Kahului, Maui (yellow line), and Hilo, Island of Hawai‘i (green line).

Data are for 1950–2015. Temperatures across the islands have increased since 1950, at rates of between 0.2°F and 0.4°F per decade.

Temperatures in Honolulu have increased by 2.3°F over this period and have consistently been above the 1951–1980 average since 1975.

Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.

Rainfall

Precipitation varies greatly by both season and location. Hawai‘i experiences a drier season from May through October, in which warm, steady trade winds cause frequent light-to-moderate showers, and a wet season from November through April, with weaker and less frequent trade winds and a significant amount of rain from storms.

The mountainous terrain, persistent trade winds, heating and cooling of the land, and other factors interact to result in dramatic differences in average rainfall over short distances. Annual total rainfall sometimes exceeds 300 inches along the windward slopes of mountains, but less than 20 inches in leeward coastal areas and the highest mountain slopes.  Despite great variability in precipitation amounts across the islands over the past century, annual rainfall has decreased throughout the island chain, particularly during recent years.

The Big Island

The Island of Hawai‘i has experienced the largest significant long-term declines in annual and dry season rainfall, with annual total precipitation in Hilo decreasing the most among four major airports: a decrease of almost 20 inches since 1950.

An increase in the frequency of the trade wind inversion is also linked to a decrease in precipitation at high elevations.

Hilo not so wet

The Hilo side of Hawaii Island, generally referred to as the wet side of the Big Island, is demonstrating greatest swings in wet-to-dry and wet again, year upon year since 1950.

Annual precipitation varies greatly from year to year, however, overall amounts have decreased since 1950 at all four stations. The greatest decrease has been seen in Hilo, where annual precipitation has decreased by almost 20 inches across the period of record

Hawaiian Islands

The number of consecutive dry days across the major Hawaiian Islands has become longer since 1950s. An increase in drought conditions has been seen in recent years, particularly at high elevations. In 2010, more than 40 percent of the Hawaiian Islands experienced severe, extreme, or exceptional drought conditions. Such conditions lead to a lack of useable water and increased risk of fire. On the other side of the coin, the number of extreme precipitation events has been below average in recent years, with areas at the highest elevations experiencing the strongest downward trend.

Regionally, extreme rainfall events have become less frequent for O‘ahu and Kauai, but more frequent for the Island of Hawai‘i.  Water, weather are the enablers for the staples of life, and as for Hawaii’s future livability like the rest of the world that is certainly the case…

Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.

Sea level rise in Hawai‘i

Increasing temperatures raise concerns for sea level rise in Hawai‘i.   

Since 1880, global sea level has risen by about 8 inches. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100 as a result of both past and future emissions due to human activities.

Rates of sea level rise in Hawai‘i vary between the islands, ranging from 0.6 inches per decade for Kaua‘i and O‘ahu to 1.3 inches per decade on the Island of Hawai‘i.

Sea level rise across Hawai‘i is projected to rise another 1–3 feet by the end of the 21st century.  

Sea level rise has caused an increase in tidal floods associated with nuisance-level impacts. Nuisance floods are events in which water levels exceed the local threshold (set by NOAA’s National Weather Service) for minor impacts. These events can damage infrastructure, cause road closures, and overwhelm storm drains.

As sea level has risen along the Hawaiian coastline, the number of tidal flood days (all days exceeding the nuisance level threshold) has also increased, with the greatest number occurring in 2002–2003. Continued sea level rise will present major challenges to Hawai‘i’s coastline, through coastal inundation and erosion.

Seventy percent of Hawai‘i’s beaches have already been eroded over the past century, with more than 13 miles of beach completely lost. Sea level rise will also affect Hawai‘i’s coastal water management system and could cause extensive economic damage through ecosystem damage and losses in property, tourism, and agriculture.