Swift Action to Cut Methane Emissions Could Slow the Earth’s Warming by 30 percent

The talk is all about net zero by 2050, but what the temperature will be in 2050 will be determined by what we do now

Moving quickly to cut emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas produced by everything from livestock farming to fossil fuel extraction, could slow the rate of the Earth’s warming as much as 30 percent, new research has found.

The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, calculated that a full-scale push using existing technologies could reduce methane emissions in half by 2030. Such reductions could have a crucial impact in the global effort to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) compared to preindustrial levels — a central aim of the Paris climate accord.

In human terms, that could translate into fending off the most severe sea level rise, preventing more profound damage to animal habitats and ecosystems and delaying other extreme climate impacts.

Co2 Cuts, yes, but cutting Methane emissions is the low hanging fruit in addressing global warming.

Carbon dioxide is far more abundant in the Earth’s atmosphere and can linger for hundreds of years, while methane typically breaks down after about a decade. But in the short term, methane is far more effective at trapping heat — roughly 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

“If we really scale up methane reductions, we could have tangible benefits during our lifetime,” said Ilissa Ocko, senior climate scientist at the Environmental Defense Fund, and a lead author of the study. “If you were to take these actions and cut as much methane as you could, you would see a clear benefit in the amount of warming we would avoid.”

Ocko and her co-authors note that pledges to tackle climate change often focus on cutting emissions of carbon dioxide — the most prevalent greenhouse gas — and doing so on a pace to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

So far, the trajectory is not encouraging. Concentrations of methane in the atmosphere have been rising, and fast. Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that levels of methane showed a “significant jump” in 2020, marking “the largest annual increase recorded since systematic measurements began in 1983.”

Methane Flare Off

David Victor, a professor of international law at the University of California, San Diego, said that “the politics of doing something about these problems are easier to manage; it is easier to build a coalition around demonstrable success.” But, he warned, that methane is “really, really potent” and “right now global warming is accelerating.”

Jason Bordoff, founder and director of Columbia University’s global energy institute, said… “It is a short-lived gas but it has a powerful warming impact,” he said, adding that the technology for capturing methane is no secret. “We know how to do it”. 

In vowing last week to cut U.S. emissions by at least 50 percent by the end of the decade, the Biden administration singled out methane as one key focus.

“The United States will update standards and invest in plugging leaks from wells and mines and across the natural gas distribution infrastructure,” the government said in a submission to the United Nations. “In addition, it will offer programs and incentives to improve agricultural productivity through practices and technologies that also reduce agricultural methane and [nitrous oxide] emissions, such as improved manure management and improved cropland nutrient management.”

In remarks opening a two-day White House climate summit last week, Biden said of his climate plans, “I see workers capping hundreds of thousands of abandoned oil and gas wells that need to be cleaned up, and abandoned coal mines that need to be reclaimed, putting a stop to the methane leaks and protecting the health of our communities.”

Fukushima3

Japan To Dump Millions of Tons of Nuclear Wastewater: Hawaii in the crosshairs

Japan’s government announced on Tuesday (April 13) that it will dump more than a million tons of contaminated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean. The highly contaminated water contains more radioactive material than previously acknowledged.

Roughly 1.25 million tons (1.13 million metric tons) of water have accumulated around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in northeastern Japan since 2011, after a magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami devastated the region. The twin disasters killed nearly 20,000 people, according to NPR, and caused meltdowns in three of the plant’s six reactors, triggering the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl.


To keep the remaining reactor cores from melting, officials with the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) have been pumping nearly 200 tons (180 metric tons) of cooling water through the site every day, according to The New York Times.

FukushimaThe contaminated wastewater is stored in more than 1,000 enormous tanks on site and automatically filtered to remove most of the radioactive material, except for tritium — a radioactive isotope of hydrogen that is considered hazardous to human health in large amounts, according to the nonprofit Health Physics Society.

Now, 10 years after the disaster, TEPCO is running out of room to store the wastewater.

The disposal plan, which was approved in a government cabinet meeting on Tuesday, will see the wastewater gradually discharged into the Pacific Ocean, most likely over the course of several decades.

One large concern is that TEPCO’s claims about the water’s safety may be wrong. A study published in the journal Science in August 2020 found traces of several other radioactive isotopes in the Fukushima wastewater, many of which take much longer to decay than tritium, some with a toxic radioactive half life of hundreds of years..

There are now about 1.25 million tons of wastewater stored in more than 1,000 tanks at the plant site. The water continues to accumulate at a rate of about 170 tons a day, and releasing all of it is expected to take decades.

In 2019, the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry proposed disposing of the wastewater either by gradually releasing it into the ocean or by allowing it to evaporate. The International Atomic Energy Agency said last year that both options were “technically feasible.”

Hiroshi Kishi, head of Japan’s National Federation of Fisheries, told reporters that his group was still opposed to the ocean release. Neighboring countries including China and South Korea have also expressed concerns.

Responding to Japan’s decision, the U.S. State Department said in a statement, “In this unique and challenging situation, Japan has weighed the options and effects, has been transparent about its decision, and appears to have adopted an approach in accordance with globally accepted nuclear safety standards.”

The International Atomic Energy Agency welcomed Japan’s announcement and said it would offer technical support. It called the plan to release the water into the sea in line with international practice.

It is also equally safe to assume the information made publicly available by TEPCO on the disaster and its planetary health impacts are incomplete at best and remain mostly unknown 10 years later.

What is known, the only effective decontamination methodology TEPCO and the Japanese government have agreed upon is the release of the radioactive contaminated water into the Pacific Ocean, and first to “dilute it” as a means of mitigating the environmental health impacts.


Plutonium 239 – a dangerous legacy of nuclear power

Byproducts of the TEPCO meltdown contained Plutonium-239, one of the three main isotopes demonstrated usable as fuel in thermal spectrum nuclear reactors, along with uranium-235 and uranium-​233.

In fact, the uncontrolled radioactive releases leaking into the ocean at TEPCO did in fact contain plutonium 239, considered one of the most toxic substances on Earth with a radioactive half-life in excess of 24,000 years.  It is safe to assume that the TEPCO holding tanks today also contain plutonium 239 as part of the planned ocean release of wastewater, the likely answer is yes.

Much of the existing water has already been filtered by a process designed to remove more than 62 radioactive contaminants, details as to the effectiveness of the filtration methods employed and which radioactive elements have been filtered out, and to what extent, remains unknown to the public and independent observers.

Since the meltdown at Fukushima, both TEPCO and the Japanese government have been less than forthcoming as to extent of the disaster/ TEPCO’s mismanagement of the meltdown aftermath, and the extent and radioactive contents of the meltdown wastewater have been less than revealing in any attempt to perform an independent analysis.

Japan’s neighbors including China and South Korea opposed the plan. Environmental group Greenpeace as well as local residents and fishermen also have raised their concerns.

The best the International Atomic Energy Agency (oversight and lobbying group for the nuclear power industry) could say about the TEPCO plan …“Japan’s chosen water disposal method is both technically feasible and in line with international practice.”

The IAEA blank check endorsement failed to recognize International Maritime Organization laws which prohibit the intentional release of radioactive material in the open ocean — rules that were created following Russian low-level dumping in the Sea of Japan during the 1990s.

There is no easy alternative answer.

Certainly, EM’s product claims fall short in offering an effective alternative, which leaves TEPCO with only one other option: expanding the storage capacity for the radioactive water in either above or below ground storage.

In that alternative option, that would require at least 97 per cent of the tritium to decay before deemed safe and that would take another 60 years due its short half-life, but that still does not address the question of other post-filtration radioactive elements which may also by in the wastewater, including plutonium 239, stored in tanks in an earthquake-prone region.

There are no good or environmentally safe answers to the TEPCO disaster, only that it should have never occurred.


Pacific Islanders fight back

“Today’s decision by the government of Japan is a milestone that will help pave the way for continued progress in the decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant,” the agency said in a statement. The decommissioning process is expected to take decades.

To Pacific peoples, who have carried the disproportionate human cost of nuclearism in our region, this is yet another act of catastrophic and irreversible trans-boundary harm that our region has not consented to.  Pacific activists have been urging Japan to halt plans to dump the wastewater in the ocean until consultations and an independent review takes place.

While Japan’s plan is for the water to be diluted first and discharged over the course of about 30 years, and the Japanese government has tried its hardest to convince the wider public of the treated water’s safety through the use of green mascots and backing from American scientists, Pacific peoples are once again calling it for what it is: an unjust act.

“We need to remind Japan and other nuclear states of our Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific movement slogan: if it is safe, dump it in Tokyo, test it in Paris, and store it in Washington, but keep our Pacific nuclear-free,” said Motarilavoa Hilda Lini, Vanuatu stateswoman and veteran activist of the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, after Japan’s announcement. “We are people of the ocean, we must stand up and protect it.”

Many in the Pacific have lived experience of nuclear harm with the continuing irradiation of our environments, while survivors and their descendants continue to experience harrowing maladies such as lymphatic cancers, thyroid and reproductive health issues.

Since the Hiroshima and Nagasaki detonations in 1945, 315 nuclear tests have been undertaken across the Marshall Islands, Australia, Kiribati and Maohi Nui. All of which were, at the time, described by nuclear nations to be scientifically sound and safe.

Indeed, both Japan and Pacific states share the trauma of nuclear testing. However, the Japanese government has since enthusiastically embraced the nuclear power industry.

One would think that Japan’s proposal to dump nuclear waste into the Pacific Ocean is something novel but there is a history of precedent. The shady practice was virtually a global norm in the past for the likes of nuclear nations like Japan, America and Europe. Things came to a head in 1979, when Japan’s clandestine proposal to dump nuclear waste in neighbouring Northern Marianas was exposed. Japan severely underestimated a united front from political leaders, non-governmental groups and grassroots activists from the Northern Marianas, Micronesia and the Pacific.


 

Waterworld 2

Climate Crisis; Ice Meltdown has shifted the Earth’s Axis

Massive melting of glaciers has tilted the planet’s rotation, showing the impact of human activities

The massive melting of glaciers as a result of global heating has caused marked shifts in the Earth’s axis of rotation since the 1990s, research has shown. It demonstrates the profound impact humans are having on the planet, scientists said.

The planet’s geographic north and south poles are the point where its axis of rotation intersects the surface, but they are not fixed. Changes in how the Earth’s mass is distributed around the planet cause the axis, and therefore the poles, to move.

In the past, only natural factors such as ocean currents and the convection of hot rock in the deep Earth contributed to the drifting position of the poles. But the new research shows that since the 1990s, the loss of hundreds of billions of tons of ice a year into the oceans resulting from the climate crisis has caused the poles to move in new directions.

The scientists found the direction of polar drift shifted from southward to eastward in 1995 and that the average speed of drift from 1995 to 2020 was 17 times faster than from 1981 to 1995.

Since 1980, the position of the poles has moved about 4 meters in distance.

“The accelerated decline [in water stored on land] resulting from glacial ice melting is the main driver of the rapid polar drift after the 1990s,” concluded the team, led by Shanshan Deng, from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Gravity data from the Grace satellite, launched in 2002, had been used to link glacial melting to movements of the pole in 2005 and 2012, both following increases in ice losses. But Deng’s research breaks new ground by extending the link to before the satellite’s launch, showing human activities have been shifting the poles since the 1990s, almost three decades ago.

The research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, showed glacial losses accounted for most of the shift, but it is likely that the pumping up of groundwater also contributed to the movements.

Groundwater is stored under land but, once pumped up for drinking or agriculture, most eventually flows to sea, redistributing its weight around the world. In the past 50 years, humanity has removed 18tn tons of water from deep underground reservoirs without it being replaced.

Vincent Humphrey, at the University of Zurich, Switzerland, and not involved in the new research said it showed how human activities have redistributed huge amounts of water around the planet: “It tells you how strong this mass change is – it’s so big that it can change the axis of the Earth.” However, the movement of the Earth’s axis is not large enough to affect daily life, he said: it could change the length of a day, but only by milliseconds.

Prof Jonathan Overpeck, at the University of Arizona, US, told the Guardian previously that changes to the Earth’s axis highlighted “how real and profoundly large an impact humans are having on the planet”.

Some scientists argue that the scale of this impact means a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene – needs to be declared. Since the mid-20th century, there has been a marked acceleration of carbon dioxide emissions and sea level rise, the destruction of wildlife and the transformation of land by farming, deforestation and development.

First published in The Guardian, April 23, 2021 – author , Environment editor
Earth Day

Earth Day; 50 Years +1

President Biden tells the world ‘time is short’; together we must address climate change… before it’s too late

President Biden unveiled a national pledge at today’s White House climate summit with world leaders… declaring that the United States is ready to reclaim its leadership role in combating  climate change.

The president announced Thursday that America would aim to cut the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030.  That’s one of the more aggressive near-term targets among wealthy industrialized nations, although the cuts are arguably not quite as large as what the European Union and Britain have already promised.

For President Biden’s target cuts to be achieved, a rapid shift to electric vehicles and clean energy, coupled to the expansion of forests nationwide, and the development and deployment of complex new carbon-capture technology  will be needed, along with other transformational national initiatives.

By the end of the decade, studies suggest that more than half of the new cars and S.U.V.s sold at dealerships will need to be powered by electricity, not gasoline. Nearly all coal-fired power plants would be shut down – a transition in a renewable energy trajectory that is already underway.  As carbon sinks, forests would also need to be expanded, and represent a “proven and most cost effective” means of carbon sequestration. The number of wind turbines and solar panels dotting the nation’s landscape are also projected to quadruple.

Just in the past decade, we have seen a rapid decline in renewable energy costs, with wind and solar now fully competitive with fossil fuels.  Greater technology advances in PV, battery storage, and wind power generation together have leveled the playing field. Hawaii already has some limited examples of this beneficial transition off fossil fuel dependencies.

Greater cost and technology efficiencies have also made their way into the advancements of electric vehicles, the foundation for Hawaii and the world to achieve a successful transportation transition to a clean energy economy.  Yes, it’s achievable, experts and researchers agree.  But such a transformation from business-as-usual represents an enormous challenge for all of humankind.

To get there, the Biden administration will need to put in place an array of new federal policies, many of which will face obstacles from fossil fuel stakeholders and their agents in Congress, the media, and in the courts.

Policymakers also recognize it will take more than flipping a switch to make the necessary economic, social and technology transformation.  It will require crafting measures that do not cause serious economic disruption or widespread job losses, while at the same requiring swift and decisive actions more akin to fighting a war, than the slow and deliberate pace of political obstruction,

For now, the United States has a head start. The nation’s greenhouse gas emissions have already fallen roughly 21 percent since 2005, according to estimates by the Rhodium Group, an energy research and consulting firm. Much of that decline came as electric utilities retired hundreds of their dirtiest coal plants shifting to cheaper and cleaner natural gas (50% of coal-fired  emissions), and zero emissions wind and solar power, most recently, with the addition of batteries and pump hydro power storage, providing a full time and 100% power replacement option for legacy fossil fuel power plants.


Ww Emissions Per PersonWorldwide Emissions Projection


Politics vs. American Invocation

President Biden has already proposed a number of new climate measures. His administration’s infrastructure proposal, estimated at between $3 trillion and $4 trillion is an important and vital to a timely transition for America, and by example the world, into a sustainable and clean energy global economy. This is a time for bold actions, as the science of global warming and climate continue to painfully demonstrate – time is running out!

Tax incentives for clean energy and electric vehicles are a small but important component to a clean energy economy and a significant reduction in emissions. Separately, the Environmental Protection Agency will likely enact stricter regulations addressing for tailpipe pollution from cars and trucks, and separately, production-related oil and gas methane emissions.

The Biden Administration has also floated the idea of a national clean electricity standard that could require utilities to get all of their electricity from low-carbon sources such as wind, solar, nuclear or even natural gas with carbon capture by 2035. But that policy faces an uphill battle in a nearly evenly split two-party Congress of Democrats and the GasOilPollution Republican party. Even if the Biden administration can’t enact some of the more insightful and ambitious proposals, such as a clean electricity standard, there are other governance options available to the president.

With global warming concerns now at the top of some national polling, the United States could potentially make significant progress toward its climate goal by significantly expanding federal tax credits for a variety of clean energy technologies — including electric vehicles, charging stations, wind, solar and carbon capture — an idea that has historically found a more receptive audience in Congress and is popular with voters.

There is some precedent for this approach. President Obama expanded tax incentives for wind and solar power during his two terms, which helped drive down the costs of both technologies and fostered large new industries that now employ hundreds of thousands of workers. In December, during the Trump administration, bipartisan majorities in Congress agreed to extend tax credits for technologies like wind and solar power with relatively little fanfare

Another tool for change the Biden Administration can use is the Environmental Protection Agency.  The EPA can enact new regulations for automakers, as well as coal and gas plants and oil drillers to help fill the emissions reduction gap. While those rules would not require Congress’s approval, they could face pushback in a Republican leaning Supreme Court, but would provide the necessary signals for private sector initiatives that enable a transition to a nationwide clean energy economy, regardless of the politics directed by fossil fuel interests.

Follow the Money

Another obstacle to emissions reform: the world’s biggest banks. Several major financial intuitions made headlines last year when describing investments in climate change technology companies as a key component to 21st century investment strategy.

Recent reports however revealed a different story. Three out of every four board members at seven major US investment banks, presently have or most recently had ties to climate-conflicted companies or organizations – from oil and gas corporations to trade groups that lobby against reducing climate pollution. Many of these same banking interests have advocated the continued global subsidization of fossil fuels from extraction to tailpipe or smokestack. World Bank and IMF previously reported global taxpayer subsidies for fossil fuels exceeds $4.5 trillion USD annually.

The Administration’s Climate envoy, John Kerry, has called on global banking institutions to act on their words. Century old ties between money and fossil fuels run deep in both the private and political sectors representing formidable financial obstacles to reform and climate progress.


Hawaii – an island state in a rising sea of emissions

Ultimately, however, there’s one climate metric that matters most: How quickly the entire world can get to zero emissions and halt the warming of the planet.

To avoid many of the most catastrophic risks of climate change, such the collapse of polar ice sheets and sea-level rise, climate-driven super storms, and widespread crop failures  scientists have said that the world needs to zero out emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation by around mid-century. Wind Solar

Hawaii led the nation is establishing one of the first statewide policies for a 100% transition off fossil-fuels in the generation of electricity. It was an unprecedented step back in 2001, when Hawaii established its Renewable Portfolio Standard for the state’s electric grid.

Renewable energy policies, like those started in Hawaii, help drive the nation’s $64 billion market for wind, solar and other renewable energy sources. These policies can play an integral role in state efforts to diversify their energy mix, promote economic development and reduce emissions. Roughly half of the growth in U.S. renewable energy generation since the beginning of the 2000’s can be attributed to state renewable energy requirements.

The Hawaii State Energy Office, cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE), has pursued several strategic projects that are helping to advance Hawaii’s clean economy goals and support the state’s economic recovery, including job training for energy sector workers and an upgrade of web-based tools to assist in the permitting and appropriate siting of renewable energy projects.

The Biden Administration’s infrastructure plan, and the expected Federal funding, will come at a critical junction on the state’s path to 100% (locally produced and consumed) zero emissions clean energy production and consumption. It also comes at time in the global electrification of ground transportation – which in Hawaii accounts of more than 40% of the state’s CO2 emissions.

Federal infrastructure funding directed to Hawaii will also further the state’s clean energy and decarbonization programs at a critical time when state revenue growth is under pressure from the impact of COVID-19.


2021 Legislative Session – Update

Four significant bills designed to advance Hawaii electrification of transportation have so far survived the rigors of the 2021 legislative session, and now have a good chance of passage:

  • Clean Ground TransportationHB552 – Establishes clean ground transportation goals for state agencies on a staggered basis until achieving a 100 percent light-duty motor vehicle clean fleet by 12/31/2035 and all light-duty motor vehicles in the State by 12/31/2045.
  • Public Fleet Electrification HB424 – Requires all state and county entities when renting a vehicle on behalf of a state employee in the discharge of official government business to rent electric or hybrid vehicles.
  • EV Charging Infrastructure Funding HB1142 – Allocates 3 cents of the barrel tax to fund the installation of EV charging systems.
  • Rental Car FleetSB768 – Requires lessors of rental motor vehicles to incorporate zero-emission vehicles into their rental motor vehicle fleets.


Public diligence and political pressure will continue to be part of the solution which ensures local, national, and global transitions off fossil fuels. It is a mission which impacts all life on Earth and will continue well beyond the life of any single administration, public or private initiative. It is a generational mission for all humans as stewards of this living planet we call home this Earth Day, 2021.  

 

Beyond Kona Banner Co2

Climate Alert: 420 ppm

The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide surged past 420 parts per million for the first time in recorded history this past weekend — the measurement was taken at the Mauna Loa Observatory on the Big Island of Hawaii.

To be exact, On Saturday, the daily average was pegged at 421.21 PPM—the first time in human history that number has been so high.”

There is special significance in reaching and surpassing a concentration of 416 PPM. It means we’ve passed the midpoint between preindustrial CO2 levels, around 278 PPM, and a doubling of that figure, or 556 PPM.

The record of 421 PPM reached Saturday is just a single point and occurred as CO2 levels are nearing their yearly peak. But the levels over the past two months, of more than 417 PPM, signal that the annual average concentration is likely to exceed 416 PPM.

Co2 Rise Mar 2021

 

While the growing concentration of atmospheric CO2—which increases the global average temperature and the number and severity of extreme weather events—is a long-term trend that corresponds with the rise of fossil fuel-powered capitalism, it has accelerated particularly rapidly since the 1970s.

The atmospheric carbon dioxide number is the highest it’s ever been since NOAA began measuring in the late 1950s.

“We’re completely certain that the increase in CO2 is warming the planet,” Kate Marvel, a climate scientist at NASA, wrote in an email. “I’m even more certain CO2 causes global heating than I am that smoking causes cancer. The world is already more than 2 [degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than it was before the Industrial Revolution.”

In addition to the temperature increase, a warmer atmosphere supports more instances of drought in some areas and flooding in others, along with stronger hurricanes and typhoons and the potential for more storms to rapidly intensify in dangerous, unpredictable ways.

It takes more than a pandemic to slow the rise of global temperatures as emissions also rise.

Global emissions reduced temporarily in 2020 as a result of a drop in transport use and economic activity as the coronavirus pandemic struck.   But the emissions reduction in 2020 was not enough to substantially affect the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which continues to rise.  Much larger, longer-term reductions in emissions will be required to slow or stop the rise of global warming impacts.

Medical Shortages Beyond Doctors

Hawaii is Sending its Shrinking Base of Doctors to the ER

Hawaii’s physician shortage is a serious and growing statewide problem.

A rising trend in all island counties

  • Oahu, the doctor shortage has increased from 377 (in 2019) to 475 (in 2020).
  • Hawaii Island there was an increase from 230 to 287 last year
  • Maui saw their shortage increased from 153 to 185 doctors, while
  • Kauai experienced a mild doctor shortage increase, from 60 to 61.

Dr. Michelle Mitchell, a Hilo family physician described the situation this way…We are all overworked before we entered a pandemic. And now we’re extremely overworked.”

Hawaii ranks last

Including all 50 states and Washington D.C. — when it comes to physician pay, Hawaii is at bottom of the pay scale, and with the highest cost of living. Ntianol Doctors Shortages Reasons

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that about 27 percent of Hawaii’s population will be over age 60 by the year 2030, an increase of 33 percent from 2012

The proportion of Hawaii’s population that is over 60 is growing much more rapidly than the proportion that is under 60. This growing elder group also represented greatest percentage of medical pre-existing conditions which are under some kind of doctor and or medical specialist management.

The demand for doctors, specialists and medical support services is not the root cause or explains the reason for Hawaii’s doctor shortages. In fact, it’s the one sector of the state’s economy that shows the greatest promise for growth, i.e. medical services.

Lisa Rantz, president of the Hawaii Rural Health Association and executive director of the Hilo Medical Center Foundation, said that because private practice doctors are not exempt from the state’s general excise tax, a doctor in Hawaii can expect to make comparable income to a doctor in rural Ohio, balanced against struggling to make a living in one of the highest cost states in America.

In fact, if the COVID-19 Pandemic has demonstrated anything, it is how fragile and inefficient America’s medical system today is, even as automation seeks to stream line and lower costs, it still takes doctors, specialists, and a medical infrastructure to deliver 21st century medicine.

Hawaii, a world class retirement destination

Hawaii could be leader in medicine, and create the foundation for an economic renaissance that is no longer dependent on the economic swings of the tourist trade.

With an increasing national and international population of retirees, Hawaii could take a cue from Florida in developing a diversified economy, in part catering to a retiring class of Americans with wealth spend in the state they call home.

A Brookings study last year found that from 1989 to 2016, the median net worth of families with a head of household age 65 or older increased by 68 percent.

If Hawaii’s state legislature seeks to address the inequalities among its resident population, Robin Hood tax schemes will only feed the exodus of its population now paying the majority of state taxes and funding programs dear to many of the state’s political class and its union supporters.

On the other hand, state policies which encourage the growth of medical services and the development of associated support services will be quality high paying jobs, each contributing to Hawaii’s economy, and they will provide the foundational draw for retirees seeking Aloha and quality medical care as they age and spend their retirement dollars, and a welcome change for a grateful and growing kupuna population.

 


A Pandemic, Doctor Shortages, An Aging Population, and a Tax-Happy State Legislature – the perfect Storm

Hilo radiologist Scott Grosskreutz, who helped form a Hawaii Physician Shortage Crisis Task Force to work with the state Legislature on the issue, said Hawaii County has an estimated 53% fewer physicians than similar-sized communities on the mainland.

Furthermore, more than one-third of the doctors the county does have are 65 years old or older, meaning many will retire soon, leaving the county in even worse straits.

This year’s legislature has multiple tax bills designed raise and/or create kinds of taxes in a mad dash to raise revenue. On such bill, SB 56, designed raise state income taxes on the so-called rich, would among other things, impact resident medical practices and would raise taxes on doctor salaries. It’s like pouring gasoline on a fire you’re trying to put out.  SB 56 is but one more example of ways to disincentivize doctors from setting up shop in Hawaii, and for existing medical practices to close down.

“It seems like there’s not a good understanding (in the Legislature) of how physicians are trained,” Grosskreutz said. “They forgo 10 years of employment opportunities during med school and residencies and fellowships … so they enter the job market in their 30s, saddled with $250,000 in student debt, and then they have to pay to move to Hawaii and set up.”

 


Sos

Climate SOS, Hawai’i Responds

Ok, you’ve heard it before, but it bears repeating”The Earth is changing faster than at any point in human memory as a result of human-caused global heating”.

Since the mid-1800s, when we began burning fossil fuels at an industrial scale, we have been modifying our atmosphere and causing the globe to heat up.

BeyondKona has published the graphs and supporting data, explained the science, providing validated findings and warnings… in short, the answer to this climate crisis from Hawaii to Alaska is the same: ignore the new climate heating reality we’re all creating, fail to change our behavior and continue with business as usual, and the problems we’re creating will become be a self-fulfilling outcome.

Co2 Update

 

Scientists forecast that if the world passes 2C of heating above pre-industrial levels, the consequences will be catastrophic for billions of people around the world, as well as the residents, environment, and economy of Hawai’i.

 

Sea Level Rise 3 21

 

As the world warms, ice stored at the poles and in glaciers melts, and sea levels rise. The rate of rise has accelerated in recent decades, and is now estimated at 3-4mm a year.

Scientists have forecast that unless drastic action is taken to reduce emissions, sea levels will continue to rise and before the end of the century, will be catastrophic for many low-lying nations, island states like Hawaii, and populous coastal cities.  Think of it as an unwelcome gift to our children.

As for the planet on which we all depend, regardless of your political affliction, a global ecosystem and climate out-of-balance with each other will be no place to live for life today as we know it – and that includes humans.

While our ancestors have been around for about six million years, the modern form of humans only evolved about 200,000 years ago. Civilization as we know it is only about 6,000 years old, and industrialization started in the earnest only in the 1800s.

Since the industrial revolution, levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have soared to above 400 parts per million, the highest level for millions of years. Readings are taken at an observatory on the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, and usually peak in May each year.  CO2 levels have consistently been recorded from the Mauna Loa summit dating back to 1959, and records since that time show a consistent rise, year-after-year, in CO2 levels.


Beyond more talk story, what can Hawai’i do?

For one, in this year’s state legislative houses have agreed on language for a concurrent solution, SCR # 44 which states…

DECLARING A CLIMATE EMERGENCY AND REQUESTING STATEWIDE COLLABORATION TOWARD AN IMMEDIATE JUST TRANSITION AND EMERGENCY MOBILIZATION EFFORT TO RESTORE A SAFE CLIMATE.

BE IT RESOLVED by the Senate of the Thirty—first Legislature of the State of Hawaii, Regular Session of 2021, the House of Representatives concurring, that this body acknowledges that an existential climate emergency threatens humanity and the natural world, declares a climate emergency, and requests statewide collaboration toward an immediate just transition and emergency mobilization effort to restore a safe climate;

and BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that these climate mitigation and adaptation efforts mobilize at the necessary scale and speed…

The joint bill contains specific language as to actions and establishes priorities for those actions in addressing today’s climate crisis as a statewide response.

The Climate Emergency Declaration, concurrent resolution is scheduled for a public hearing this Friday, 3/12, and at 1 PM.

Public input on SCR 44, and as in written testimony, can be electronically submitted to:

https://www.capitol.hawaii.gov/measure_indiv.aspx?billtype=SCR&billnumber=44&year=2021&link_id=2&can_id=9004a46735cc27604c875cb275771c40&source=email-its-a-climate-emergency-testimony-needed-now&email_referrer=email_1103489&email_subject=its-a-climate-emergency-testimony-needed-now

Future

A Guide to Sustainability for Hawai’i

Sustainability and Resiliency

A path to Sustainability and Resiliency (often thought of as separate problems to be solved) are both in fact linked. Each require both the state and country governments to undertake coordinated policy changes, beginning with the substantial reduction in a statewide dependency on a fragile supply chain made up of locally replaceable imported fossil fuels and imported foods.

Hawaii’s 2021 legislative session is presently taking baby steps towards agriculture and energy reforms.  While the private sector, including Matson, are gearing up for access to expanded port facilities capacity in Honolulu, in order to better supply the state’s tenuous mainland lifeline.

Hawaii's Food System Is Broken. Now Is The Time To Fix It - Honolulu Civil Beat

With food as major statewide import, moving towards greater self-sufficiency will require something different than just enabling the state’s current dependencies.

The State’s Legislature this year appears to recognize this need in development of several bills encompassing the promotion and development of a diversified local agriculture system. None so far appear to address the need  for  a farm-to-consumer infrastructure as an essential first step forward towards this end.

Necessary supporting elements for resilient supply-chain are not limited to a reliable and flexible inter-island ocean-air transport system, further supported by a cold and longer term storage infrastructure to ensure an adequate domestic food supply from local as well as imported sources. Today’s neighboring island food retailers food inventory is dependent, container-to-container.

On the road to Sustainability and Resiliency, there will be necessary infrastructure and economic changes which will more than likely be disruptive to the status quo, but a plus for local jobs and a self-sufficient statewide economy prepared for the challenges of the 21st century.

  1. Eliminating Statewide imported fossil fuels dependencies:
    • ENERGY – Engage in a statewide shift to economic electrification through local clean power sources: solar, wind, power battery – pump storage, and ocean energy
    • TRANSPORTATION – Implement a 20 year phase out of gasoline and diesel vehicle dependencies, replaced through zero emissions land transportation electric vehicle alternatives, integrated mass transit systems, bike lanes, and smarter urban design
  2. Strengthening and integrating water supply and power systems, through the development of pumped-power storage solutions, is just one obvious solution which serves both Big Island power and water utilities.  West Hawaii Island examples:
    • WATER – Electricity and water supply are interdependent – no power, no water.  Hawaii’s water utilities (locally DWS) spend over 65% of the utility’s operating budget on electricity, a cost they freely pass-on to both agricultural and residential, and business water customers. DWS presently has no emergency power back-up to keep its pumps running and the water flowing during power interruptions and full blow blackouts.
    • POWER – Hawaiian Electric (Hawaii Island) faces increasing supply and demand power management issues, or industry nomenclature; load-balancing. Hawaii’s goal of 100% Renewable (electricity) by 2045 is dependent on the state and utilities cooperating in the development of energy storage options – problem and opportunity in which both water and power utilities can work together to mutual and public cost benefits.
  3. Addressing infrastructure vulnerabilities to rising sea-levels and increased island storm impacts are also another link in the chain to sustainable and resilient outcomes. Future infrastructure development and housing, e.g., must incorporate planning and permissions which fully consider climate-compatible development.
    • Public and private housing developments incorporating self-powering micro grids, linked to the Island’s power grid is step one.
  4. Advancing the state’s digital economy, first by working with private sector vendors in the creation of a high speed, broadband, telecommunications infrastructure serving all island communities
  5. Developing self-powered solid waste and water treatment management systems which do not pollute and create opportunities for re-use, as well efficient and managed disposal.
    • Reduce Waste, beginning with consumer education
      • Develop reuse options which avoid the landfill, beginning with an effective reverse supply system incorporating both public and private collection-drop off centers, repurposing of goods for sale and donation
      • Develop municipal waste water systems which return gray water to R-1 Recycle, e.g. Kealakehe Wastewater Treatment Plant.  Everything pumped into the ground in Hawaii will find its way into the state’s pristine marine environment.
      • When You Can’t Avoid Waste: compost and recycle in a public waste management system designed to serve public requirements, not the other way around.
  6. Education Opportunities – Supporting a statewide K-12 and college degree education system designed to serve local economic and environmental job opportunities .
  7. Social Equity – Historically, some parts of our community have been left behind economically. Efforts to improve resiliency and sustainability need to ensure that ALICE (asset-limited, income-constrained, employed) and other disadvantaged communities benefit equally in the state’s economic an social transition to sustainable and self-sufficient future.
  8. Developing parks and recreation opportunities which support more robust community interactions and environmental education and appreciation of Hawaii’s ania, values directly link to livability in Hawaii — translated, a greater appreciation for the interdependencies of living in and with the natural world.
Underground Rivers

Hawaii Island’s Underground Fresh Water Rivers to the Sea

A newly discovered transport mechanism of Hawaii’s Island’s fresh groundwater may be a mechanism for renewable offshore fresh water reservoirs, which are considered more resilient to climate change-driven droughts, and a new water resource for the island.


 

Hi Underground Underwater Rivers To The SeaThere are few things on the island of Hawaii that are more valuable than fresh water. This is not because the island is dry. There is generally plenty of rain, but less predictable with a changing climate.  Hawaii, like many places around the world, face increasing demand for clean, fresh water.

In the case of the Big Island, much of it that does not accumulate on the island’s porous surface, and quickly disappears.  New research by marine geophysicists reveals that underground rivers running off the Big Island’s western coast are a key force behind this vanishing act.

Fresh water is often pumped on the island from aquifers formed from rain at higher elevations where it is easy to access. The drawback is that if too much water gets pumped to meet demand, little remains to travel through rocks to farms and fragile ecosystems that depend upon it. To make matters worse, recent studies have revealed that these aquifers are also heavily leaking somewhere else. Scripps Instuite

“Everyone assumed that this missing fresh water was seeping out at the coastline or traveling laterally along the island,” said Eric Attias, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Hawaii, who led the new study published Wednesday in Science Advances. “But I had a hunch that the leak might be subsurface and offshore.”

The big island of Hawaii is like an iceberg. Only a tiny fraction of the island sticks out of the ocean. The rest is submerged. To study the hydrogeology of these sections, Dr. Attias turned to electromagnetic imaging.   Ocean water conducts electricity exceptionally well because of the presence of dissolved salt ions. By comparison, fresh water is a rather poor conductor. Aware of these different electrical properties, Dr. Attias worked with a team at Scripps Institute of Oceanography towed a 3,200-foot long system behind a boat that emitted electromagnetic fields down through the submerged coastal rocks near Hualalai volcano on the west coast.


Hawaii Island underground rivers of fresh water are flowing 2-½ miles out into the ocean.

Dr. Attias’ work shows that within the rock of the island below the waves, there are rivers are flowing through fractured volcanic rock and surrounded by porous rocks that are saturated with salt water.

In total, Big island rivers below ocean surface appear to contain enough fresh water to fill about 1.4 million Olympic swimming pools.

To access this water, Dr. Attias proposes a system similar to an offshore oil platform. “The water is already under high pressure, so little pumping would be needed and, unlike an oil pump, there would not be any threat of pollution. If you have a spill, it’s just fresh water,” he said.

“I am excited to see wells drilled into these offshore aquifers so we can find out how fresh this water is and whether or not we can produce large volumes without pulling seawater into the system,” said Mark Person, a hydrogeologist at the New Mexico Institute of Mining & Technology.

Dr. Attias speculates that the discovery could be relevant to other islands, too.  “Given that Reunion, Cape Verde, Maui, the Galápagos and many other islands have similar geology, our finding could well mean that the water challenges faced by islanders all over the world might soon become a lot less challenging,” he said.


The Scientific Finding, and Cautionary Note

The onshore aquifer at the island of Hawai‘i exhibits a notable volumetric discrepancy between high-elevation freshwater recharge and coastal discharge.  In this study, a novel transport mechanism of freshwater moving from onshore-to-offshore was discovered, offering a potential fresh water source for Hawaii Island in times of drought.

Between all of this salt water and the flowing fresh water are thin layers of rock formed from compacted ash and soil that appear to be impermeable and thus keeping the two types of water separated.   “It looks quite plausible that there is a whole lot of fresh water down there beneath the ocean,” says Graham Fogg, a hydrogeologist at the University of California, Davis who was not involved in the study.   “The fresh water that they have discovered is clearly being actively fed by the aquifer on the island,” he said. “This means that the entire aquifer system is connected and our draining of this new water could adversely impact island ecosystems and water availability for pumps on the island.”

Covid 19 Breaks Apart

Covid-19 – what 700 Epidemiologists Think Is Next

 

  • Of the Epidemiologists surveyed, the majority foresee that even with vaccines, it would probably take a year or more for many activities to safely restart, and that some parts of their lives may never return to the way they were.
  • Some have begun going to the grocery store again, but don’t see vaccines making life normal any time soon.   Coronavirus vaccines 101: What you need to know | UCHealth Today
  • Even with coronavirus vaccines on the way, many epidemiologists do not expect their lives to return to pre-pandemic normal until most Americans are vaccinated. In the meantime, most have eased up on some precautions — now going to the grocery store or seeing friends outdoors, for example — but are as cautious as ever about many activities of daily life.
  • A minority of the epidemiologists said that if highly effective vaccines were widely distributed, it would be safe for Americans to begin living more freely this summer: “I am optimistic that the encouraging vaccine results mean we’ll be back on track by or during summer 2021,” said Kelly Strutz, an assistant professor at Michigan State University.
  • Half surveyed said they would not change their personal behavior until at least 70 percent of the population was vaccinated. Thirty percent said they would make some changes once they were vaccinated themselves.

Concerns

  • Epidemiologists are worried about many unknowns, including
    • how long immunity lasts;
    • how the virus may mutate;
    • the challenges of vaccine distribution; and the
    • possible reluctance to accept the vaccine among some groups.

On the eve of the Covid winter, the epidemiologists are living with stringent precautions and new workarounds in place, far stricter than those of many ordinary Americans. Yet those precautions have evolved since last spring, as scientists have learned more about how the coronavirus spreads and what prevents it.

Of 23 activities of daily life that the survey asked about, there were only three that the majority of respondents had done in the last month: gathering outdoors with friends; bringing in mail without precautions; and running errands, like going to the grocery store or pharmacy.

The epidemiologists have almost entirely avoided other parts of pre-pandemic life — including activities that many Americans are doing now. Almost none said they had attended a sporting event, play or concert; met up with someone they didn’t know well; or attended a wedding or funeral.

“Being in close proximity to people I don’t know will always feel less safe than it used to,” said Ellicott Matthay, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of California, San Francisco.

Three-quarters of respondents said they planned to spend Christmas, Hanukkah or other winter holidays only with members of their household, or not celebrate at all, similar to how they spent Thanksgiving.

When asked about the safest and riskiest activities on the list, most epidemiologists agreed on these general principles: They are less worried about outdoor activities and about touching surfaces, and more worried about indoor activities and those with large groups. But even the epidemiologists didn’t all agree on their assessment of risk.

“Indoor venues with lots of people is the riskiest situation,” said Leland Ackerson of the University of Massachusetts. “Outdoors with few people, social distancing and precautions is the least risky.” He said that during the last month, he had hiked with friends, opened mail without precautions and run errands.

Herd Immunity

Most scientists say around 70 percent of the population will need to be immune for the United States to reach herd immunity, when the virus slows down significantly or stops. Moncef Slaoui, who is leading the government’s Operation Warp Speed vaccine development program, said this week that vaccines may roll out quickly enough for the United States to reach herd immunity by early summer. But scientists do not yet know if vaccinated people could still spread the virus.