April 22, 2020 is the 50^th anniversary of “Earth Day”, and a good time to reflect on our progress to protect this island chain we call home.

The first Earth Day was a defining moment in the great American experiment. Twenty million people nationwide — at the time, roughly one in 10 citizens — took part.

Last year the Pew Research Center reported that nearly 70 percent of Americans said the government was not doing enough to protect the water quality of lakes, rivers and streams, or to protect air quality. And this year, Pew reported that, for the first time in two decades, a majority of Americans believed dealing with climate change should be a top priority for the president and Congress, a 14-point rise from just four years ago.

Democrats and Republicans worked together to create the Clean Water Act, the Clean Air Act and the E.P.A.  Today, the politics of divide and conqueror prohibit that kind of teamwork, which seems all but unthinkable with a GOP controlled Senate.

While research shows that voters’ interest in climate and environmental issues is soaring, it also reveals an astonishing split:  More than 75 percent of Democrats called climate change a top policy priority, while less than 25 percent of Republicans did.

At the core of this political tug of war is the Trump administration’s system wide roll back of environmental regulations governing fossil fuels – from extraction to tailpipe and power plant emissions, stop us if your dare.  The rollbacks range from weakening or eliminating water and air quality protections to climate change, as well as broader roll-back of laws designed to protect the public health, endangered species, and the environment.

In contrast to the politics of denial, 50 years of climate science and mounting data continues to document the effects of our energy addiction to fossil fuel and the escalating impact to the planet’s climate, ecosystems, and global species (humans included).

It was only a few years ago that energy industry experts believed that renewable energy would never account for than 2-3% energy supply to national grid. By 2018, renewable energy sources accounted for 17% of all electricity generation in the United States.

Progress, yes, but the health and environmental costs from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity continue mount; in FEMA recovery efforts, sea level rise, and public heath costs accountable to polluted air and water, and especially impacting the lives of those in the poorest of communities who live closest to these pollution sources: oil and gas refineries and gas fracking sites.

The Petroleum Plutocrats

Between 1970 and 2018, the global consumption of coal, oil and natural gas more than doubled. As hard as it may be to grasp, global fossil fuel demand continues to rise.

Substantial progress has been achieved in technology and cost competitiveness of wind and solar project energy projects versus legacy fossil fuel power plants, and these clean power replacements are proving to be the most cost effective of energy production options for power producers, utilities, and consumers alike. They deliver greater efficiency, are cheaper to operate, and for the general public, environmentally essential towards addressing global warming in their role as energy source replacements for coal, oil, and gas power plants.

With competitive clean energy replacements banging on their door, and a rising global push back from most of the world’s governments as smokestack and tailpipe climate costs continue to rise, for Big Oil …it’s full speed ahead, global warming be damned.  

Major global resource extractors, fossil fuel producers and distributors continue to refine their political calculus, buying favors, and fine tuning their plans for the next 20, 30, 40, even 50 years of operation as the essential component of any energy mix. Their business plans for the future share common themes:

• extend the global economic dependency on oil, gas, and all fossil fuels as far into the future as possible,
• deny the facts and scientific conclusions of global warming,
• obscure the environmental costs and consequences of business-as-usual worst practices, and
• push ahead, no matter what may come of it.

Petroleum Politics – A Global View 

In the 21^st century, Exxon and their big oil counterparts have been “given” more than just a free hand (alongside the Russians) to open up drilling operations in the Arctic, they have been handily rewarded for their role in a global melt-down that is now making the transformation of the Arctic Sea ready for it transformation into a giant drilling platform for unexplored riches in oil and gas – environmental protections and climate consequences also be damned.

Rachel Maddow’s recent book, “Blowout”, does an excellent job telling the story of how the world’s richest economic sector, subsidized to the tune of more than $5 trillion dollars annually in global taxpayer subsidies (IMF-World Bank data), manages to leverage its influence and profit priorities across the world’s governments, successfully navigating the geo-political landscape to eliminate all public opposition to their plans and activities, while passing the costs onto the public in polluted waterways, public health and environmental costs, and tax-free operations.

The book wonderfully outlines the winners and losers in game of greed and massive petro profits.

In meanwhile, China and Europe are driving demand for Russian natural gas and oil, and India (the most populous place on Earth) is just now coming into their own as a major importer of oil and gas to meet its growing energy demands of its population and economy. There is no shortage in demand for energy, question is in what form that energy is delivered to consumers. When it comes to the established players in fossil fuels, let the good time roll.

In the past 10 years, first beginning with the Obama administration, and then in the last 3 years under Trump, the US has flipped from a net importer to net exporter of oil and gas. National energy independence is priority most Americans share, but there is a right way and a wrong way to achieve that goal, Trump choose the wrong way for the nation and the planet.

President Trump’s administration also has taken unprecedented action in removing most regulatory limits governing fossil fuels.  A free ride for an industry already associated with massive tax giveaways, as well as environmental and corporate crimes – forgiven, overlooked, and public consequences undervalued.

A glimmer of light in the form of a global agreement, which took years to reach a working agreement, a global agreement designed to face off the greatest threat to humanity and planet of our modern times, the Paris Accord. Signed in 2016, every nation on the planet signed on but two: North Korea and Nicaragua (pillars of democracy and good governance).

The newly elected president Donald Trump’s first priority, once in office, was simple enough. Pull out of the Paris Accord on day one of his presidency, as he did or shortly thereafter – a massive gift to his fossil fuel donors.  The withdrawal of  United States from Paris Accord was more than a Pyrrhic Victory for big oil, it was a global withdrawal of American leadership and a giant step backwards to end humanity’s oil addiction in the fight to address global warming.

Right now you may be asking yourself, cheap oil, humm… but it’s unlikely to last, so you may want to hold off buying that next fuel guzzling SUV or oversize pick-up truck you’ve had your eye before this pandemic hit the fan.  My advice, wait and see just where fuel prices land once the economy recovers – and yes, it’s more a question of when, than if it will recover.

It took a global pandemic to slow things down for a global energy train running at full speed towards the end of tracks.  But it was also just a moment in time for a deeply established 150 year old industry, yet fragile and unsustainable without helping hand reaching out for more public subsidies. So petro guys screamed for government help, and they’re getting it big time – the free money details are still in the works.  With tankers and storage tanks full worldwide, bulk crude prices at rock bottom, they hit the panic button during a momentary glut of the black stuff – just a market function of supply and demand. Don’t weep, this industry has more of (your) money than most governments have in their treasuries.

Trump to the rescue — the prospect of renewed tensions in the Middle East gave crude a lift during a week where prices have struggled to contend with evaporation in demand triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.  Today’s energy market tickers screamed… “oil prices rebounded from net zero price today, when Trump stoked Middle East fears, saying he was ordering US warships to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian vessels if they posed a threat”.  Just one Trump tweet buoyed the high-yield bond market keeping oil investments afloat. But it will take more than a Iranian speed boat or two harassing the world’s most capable and sophisticated navy to upset the fundamentals of supply or demand which determine the price of oil and gas.

From the 1970’s formation of OPEC to today’s supply wars between Saudi Arabia and Russia, producers continue to determine for the most part, the price of oil and gas, and retailers have little say other than to pass on those end user fuel costs to consumers.

Then there is the fundamentals of price fixing by major oil producers which has little to do with demand, and is all about supply.  Like drug dealers, setting the price of fuel based on demand is the roadmap to addiction.  The hidden environmental costs of fossil fuels we pay in other ways, but we’ll pay whatever it takes if our addiction takes the form of fueling our vehicles or running an electric utility, like HECO, dependent on oil to power many of its power plants in order sell their oil-laden electricity to Hawaii consumers.  We pay at the pump and in our electric bill, we pay because we are addicted.

All this goes away, including our addiction with all its economic, environmental and social consequences, once we ween ourselves off of oil.

The politics and corruption of our dirty energy dependency, and its true costs to consumers and the planet, also go away – along with the hidden and added costs to public health care, environmental damage mitigation and restoration, and the transition to a clean, sustainable, and equitable energy economy.  In the end, we pay either as consumers or as taxpayers, or both the cost of our addiction to oil.

Hawaii’s beaches remain closed in an attempt to keep people from congregating on the shore and spreading the coronavirus. Recently, there is local talk story circulating about of what happens when you’re in the ocean, and a belief that the ocean’s salt water will purify things, making it a safe haven from the COVID-19 virus.

An atmospheric chemist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Dr. Kim Prather, believes that may not be the case. She has found that …“all the safety assumption behind the rules for six-foot social distancing, especially when you’re at the beach and in the water, do not apply.”

Prather is especially concerned when surfers huddled in a tight pack, positing themselves for the next wave, and placing themselves at potential risk of viral infection. Prather comments are worth considering, after all, she is an expert on how tiny microorganisms get lofted into the air hitchhiking on aerosols.

She warned that the COVID-19 virus can bind itself to microscopic aerosol (airborne) particles which can be transmitted by groups of people in close proximity — not only on the beach, but in the water as well.

Prather says the data indicates viruses can remain alive in saltwater for days, if not months.

Dish soap kills the virus in the same way it breaks down fat baked into a frying pan, yet the same lipid envelope surrounding the virus structure makes it resistant in saltwater. The fatty envelope encasing coronaviruses could float near the ocean surface where waves can whip particles into the air according to Dr. Prather.

Many known viruses have been swept up into the air from sea spray. The viruses tend to hitch rides on smaller, lighter, organic particles suspended in air and gas, meaning they can stay aloft in the atmosphere longer.

Some evidence shows viruses can remain viable after getting caught in weather currents dispersing microbes across very distant oceans.

Science has already demonstrated that an infection can spread beyond direct contact from contaminated surfaces or through droplets from sneezes and coughs within close proximity to an infected person.

Surf or Swim and Don’t Worry … maybe not just yet

Scientists worldwide are on a fast track to unlock the virus characteristics, yet so far, neither the World Health Organization, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention nor local health agencies have warned that the virus can be spread by ocean spray or coastal breezes.

Jacksonville University’s Dr. Anthony Ouellette, professor of biology and chemistry, sees no need for concern yet.  “No evidence supporting being concerned about water at the beaches. Being concerned about aerosolized COVID is absolutely valid, but I don’t see a good connection of dots here. Not to say, of course, that there is no possibility, but sticking with what I know, I am not concerned.”

Quellette says he’s wary the virus has been detected in sewage, but proper wastewater treatment facilities kill the vast majority of pathogens.

For now, there is little concern until the beach ban is lifted. Until then, scientists have more time to study the novel virus risks before the beaches are open again.

Hawaii, a profile in crisis readiness

The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted how vulnerable our modern societies are, particularly in an isolated island state like Hawaii.

We import 99 percent of our transportation fuel from thousands of miles away.

We import about 90 percent of our food, and this amount is declining in recent years rather than increasing.

Almost all of our consumer, medical, and industrial goods are shipped or flown in, over thousands of miles.

We have only one or two hospitals in the state that can handle certain medical procedures.

Hawaii, as a state, is especially vulnerable to economic shocks, pandemics, as well as a number of the familiar natural disasters, such as hurricanes, tsunamis, droughts, volcanic activity, and earthquakes. And we haven’t even mentioned the exacerbating effects of climate change which are now apparent and will only worsen in the coming years.

We do, however, have feasible options for improving the current state of affairs.

A Focus on Hawaii Island 

The Hawaii County Council environmental and agricultural management committee just two weeks ago voted unanimously to make a relatively small code change that could lead to a revival of the mayor’s Sustainability Action Committee.

Mayor Kim created the committee back in 2007, during his previous term, but never actually stood it up as a working committee.  Thirteen years later, and well past time to stand up this committee, it may finally see the light of day.  County added new code language to its Bill 142, adding the words “climate change” to the list of topics within the purview of the Sustainability Action Committee. This important two-word addition will allow Mayor Kim to finally stand up this important committee and to address sustainability issues explicitly linked to climate change and resiliency challenges.

The Big Island could, in theory, provide almost all of its peoples’ needs with local resources. But being resilient isn’t about manufacturing cell phones or big screen TVs locally — that’s not required or reasonable. Being resilient is more about being able to survive even the worst disasters by having, at the very least, water, food, shelter, medical supplies, energy, and communication needs on hand so that we can, together, weather what storms may come our way.

How long could Hawaii last under our current lifestyle if we were cut off from outside food, oil, medical supplies, and manufactured goods?   

The sad answer is that we’d last less than a week before major societal and economic impacts begin to take hold.

The current coronavirus pandemic has shown us that these kinds of scenarios aren’t impossible. These are the scenarios that we do need to plan for. We need to be resilient and ready for whatever disasters come our way. This means a number of important things:

• Reducing our dependency on imports, e.g., shifting rapidly to local agriculture, renewable energy like solar, wind and geothermal, beefing up water supplies, and shifting away from gasoline and diesel vehicles to zero emissions ground transportation alternatives, like electric vehicles.
• Future-proofing our infrastructure and housing, e.g., planning for possible future migration from areas that will be inundated by rising sea levels.
• Creating a culture of readiness through awareness and practice.

Hawaii Island already has a good start with various efforts like the Transportation Hui, coordinated by Riley Saito, the county’s Research and Development Department energy programs lead, which recently completed its shared mobility plan working with the Shared-Use Mobility Center. We also have the County’s greenhouse gas tracking efforts, which recently completed a county-wide inventory of emissions, building on similar state efforts.

Combined with existing disaster preparedness plans led by the County’s Civil Defense Agency, and various efforts to promote local agriculture, there is much work that can be built upon in order to truly prepare our island to be resilient and sustainable.

Transforming our local economies will take smart planning and sustained community dialogue, so that all parts of our communities are on board and understand why these shifts need to take place. Sustainability and resiliency are two sides of the same coin.

By being more sustainable we become more resilient.

Mayor Kim, please, as soon as possible, stand up the Sustainability Action Committee and let it get to work creating sustainability and resiliency plans for the Big Island, working with stakeholders every step of the way.

Tam Hunt is a lawyer and writer based in Hilo, Hawaii, and guess editor to BeyondKona.  Noel Morin is a contributor editor to BeyondKona. With over 27 years of experience in business systems analysis, product management, and leadership roles in companies like Johnson and Johnson and eBay, Noel is also an environmental advocate with a focus on Hawaii’s future, while advancing the state’s electrification of transportation through his role as  president of the Hawaii EV Association.

BREAKING NEWS

Friday, April 17th, 2020

STAT news reported that severely ill coronavirus patients were responding well to remdesivir, a Gilead Sciences drug, at a Chicago hospital. The trial involved only 125 people and the preliminary results were not peer reviewed, but it was welcome news, and a possible beginning to a virus vaccine based on science and not politics.

• Previously, Remdesivir was given to the first known U.S. coronavirus patient: a man in Washington State who had recently returned from the outbreak’s epicenter in Wuhan, China. And he has made a good recovery.
• But that patient is, of course, only a single person, and a larger sample size will be needed to determine the drug’s efficacy.
• Two trials of Remdesivir are currently underway in China: one for severe cases of COVID-19 and the other for mild or moderate cases. Results for both trials are expected in April.
• Another clinical trial is planned in the U.S., and it will be run by the University of Nebraska Medical Center and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. That trial will take months to be conducted and at up to 50 sites around the world, testing Remdesivir against a placebo.
• Remdesivir has been shown to be effective against many other viruses, and some experts are optimistic that it—or similar compounds—may work for the pathogen responsible for COVID-19.

previously published… March 13th, 2020

UNITED STATES DECLARES NATIONAL EMERGENCY 

Coronavirus expert and Federal government spokesman, Dr. Anthony Fauci  [video] says:

It’s certainly going to get worse before it gets better

Crisis will last for at least several weeks and possibly 2 months or more

• No vaccine or direct treatment currently exists. 
• U.S. Federal Response — In a stark contrast to many other industrialized nations, the United States preparedness for COVID-19, and testing, has been late, incompetent, incomplete, and only within the last few days has the Virus threat been taken seriously by the Trump administration, in spite of the Virus’ health threat to United States, since December 2019.
• National and states response to COVID-19 have been hobbled by previous health system cuts from the Trump administration in pandemic preparedness, science, and expert staffing at key levels of the Federal agencies responsible for pandemic preparedness: CDC, DoH, Homeland Security, DoD, and other key Federal agencies — a Federal response infrastructure was established after 9/11, but pandemic preparedness and response capabilities that were enhanced during the previous Obama administration, have since been mostly dismantled during Trump’s tenure as President.
• One of the main concerns about caring for vulnerable populations amid coronavirus, in comparison to the flu, is that there are no vaccines to fight the new virus, and no drugs to treat those who become infected.  Most epidemiologists agree that an effective and safe vaccine is probably a year or more away, despite President Trump’s claims that he has heard that something could arrive sooner.
• Present treatment for Covid-19 patients mainly consists of providing fluids, giving medicine to alleviate fever and supplying supplemental oxygen in severe cases, according to a Harvard Health report.
• Hospitals may soon be overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients, ill prepared for what’s coming…
• As this pandemic grows in the numbers, verified cases and the number of corresponding hospitalizations grow.  The CDC estimates there are only 1 million hospital beds in the United States, and 70% of those beds are already occupied.  Ventilators, essential to hospital treatment of those patients seriously ill from the coronavirus is estimated at only 65,000 units nationwide.
• More than 1 million of the most vulnerable people to the virus in the United States live in nursing homes, and more than 800,000 people call residential care communities home, according to the CDC.
• Just last month, Hawaii was bracing for 50,000 to 70,000 cases of flu this year, already complicating preparedness for coronavirus (COVID-19).  Hawaii Now reported in late February that the flu was running rampant at Hawaii health care facilities, according to state officials. A handful of hospitals diverted ambulances on at least one day last week because they were overwhelmed beyond capacity.
• The expected surge in influenza cases and hospitalizations statewide is complicated by the near simultaneous arrival of COVID-19 in Hawaii.

President Trump’s speech to the nation – March 11th, 2020

• President Trump’s speech to the nation last night was a belated response to a global crisis. His speech only highlighted an administration engaged in an absence of governance, problem-denial, and misleading statements, and provided little reassurance to the nation from the president that his “crisis on autopilot” policy was working, and will somehow fix itself in time.
• The 10 minute speech to nation at times sounded more like a rambling campaign speech rather than a assuring statement to nation … we have your back.  Trump mostly highlighted his accomplishments, while presenting a reactive and mostly economic-focused policy to COVID-19, often without reason or factual justification.
• Trump’s speech highlighted plans for a European travel ban, except for the UK which already has a higher rate of reported COVID-19 cases than 14 other European nations. Vague statements about ramping up national testing for COVID-19 offered little reassurance to an uneasy nation, nor did a proposed temporary tax holiday for certain individuals, companies and industrial sectors of the economy.
• Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, a vice dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and author of “The Public Health Crisis Survival Guide,” said in response to Trump’s statements re COVID-19: “One of the huge lessons is: Don’t politicize the communications. You really need credible communicators who people believe.”
• Joe Biden’s COVID-19 response plan for the nation, counters Trump – March 12th
• Joe Biden, former vice president and candidate for president, held a news conference today from the Hotel du Pont in Wilmington, Del., addressing the challenges the country faces, and his ideas for managing the coronavirus outbreak. Biden drew sharp contrasts with Trump, a day after the president addressed the nation from the Oval Office, establishing a preview of what Mr. Biden hopes will be a general election match-up.
• “Unfortunately, this virus laid bare the severe shortcomings of the current administration,” Mr. Biden said, “Public fears are being compounded by pervasive lack of trust in this president fueled by an adversarial relationship with the truth that he continues to have.”
• “No president can promise to prevent future outbreaks,” he said. “But I can promise you this. When I’m president, we will be better prepared, respond better and recover better. We’ll lead with science. We’ll listen to the experts. We’ll heed their advice. And we’ll build American leadership and rebuild it to rally the world to meet the global threats.”
• “In the difficult days ahead, I know that this country will summon the spirit, the empathy, the decency and the unity needed because in times of crisis, the American people always, always stand as one if told the truth,” he said. “We’ll meet this challenge together. I’m confident of it. But we have to move, and move now.”
• In his remarks, Biden plan for combating the virus, includes proposals calling for rapidly and vastly expanding national testing for the virus — and tests, he said, should be available at no charge, with the nation moving aggressively to boost hospital capacity and supporting an accelerated push for a vaccine…
• Bernie Sanders’s COVID-19 response plan for the nation, counters Trump – March 12th
• Bernie Sanders, also today, provided his own plan for addressing the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak and the steps needed to combat the disease.
• Senator Sanders called for unity and on the president to declare a national emergency.
• Sanders said that we (the nation) must face the truth that the number of US casualties from virus may exceed that of World War Two.
• “If there was ever a time that we were all in this together, the time is now, and must address the virus threat in a bi-partisan effort, led by science and medical experts, not politicians, …if there ever was a time for transparency in government, it is now.”  
• “Unfortunately, we have an administration that is largely incompetent and that has endangered many Americans…” 
• Sanders speech excerpt:  https://nyti.ms/2IJcFEs

• Potential fiscal impacts on Hawaii of COVID-19
• We are just beginning to understand both the potential fiscal and health impacts of COVID-19 on Hawaii.
• Visitor fears over the coronavirus (COVID-19) could mean a $300 million revenue loss to Hawaii this year.  The state’s tourism sector is also projected to decline by 10%,  resulting in nearly 6,000 job losses, according to an University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UERO) released this week.
• Separately, the state’s Council on Revenues projects the state should expect no revenue growth in state taxes in fiscal year 2021, which begins this July 1. They also lowered the projection for the last three months of this fiscal year by 0.3%, or about $22 million.
• State lawmakers appear unaware or unconcerned as to the evolving economic impact to the state’s budget as they pass a series of spending packages, including over $70 million worth of tax benefits for lower income workers, and another $200 million for developing affordable housing in West Oahu.  State economists expect tax collections to rebound by 2022 and to coincide with a projected (unknown) statewide economic recovery by the end of 2021.

— previously published from March 3rd, 2020 —  Cororavirus World Infection Map

• As of March 6th, the total number of documented coronavirus cases worldwide has topped 100,000 worldwide, with more than 3,400 deaths attributed to the virus. New coronavirus cases have been trending higher, with the vast majority reported outside of China.  The World Health Organization previous stated on Tuesday, the global case fatality rate is now 3.4 percent.
• Confirmed U.S. Covid-19 cases have climbed to at least 233. Last week, the U.S. suffered its first two (NY Times report, 3-3-20). As of March 6th, the number has since grown to 14 confirmed U.S. deaths directly attributed to the virus
• Gov. David Ige declared a state of emergency Wednesday (March 4th) following the disclosure that a cruise ship that carried California’s first coronavirus fatality visited the four main Hawaiian islands last week.  While Hawaii still has no confirmed cases, state health officials are monitoring developments involving the ship that stopped on Oahu, Maui, Kauai and the Big Island with passengers who may have been previously exposed to the new illness, known as COVID-19.
• The declaration allows Hawaii to use funds to act quickly in containing the spread of the virus when an outbreak occurs in the islands. The measure allows for “funding flexibility” to buy supplies and equipment and gives the governor authority to suspend any laws that may impede emergency functions.
• Racing to confront a growing public health threat, the Democratically-controlled House of Representatives resoundingly approved $8.3 billion in emergency aid on Wednesday to combat the coronavirus, just hours after congressional leaders from both parties reached a deal on the funding.
• The bipartisan package, which includes nearly $7.8 billion for agencies dealing with the virus and came together after days of intensive negotiations, and is substantially larger than what the White House proposed in late February. It also authorizes roughly $500 million to allow Medicare providers to administer telehealth services so that more elderly patients, who are at greater risk from the virus, can receive care at home.
• The coronavirus will have a greater effect on Hawaii’s economy than initially predicted, with tourism spending expected to decline by 10% this year, according to a new report by University of Hawaii economists.
• That equates to an estimated $1.7 billion, based on the 2019 figures for visitor spending.
• The report, released Tuesday by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, is the first major economic research on the local economy produced since the virus’ widening economic effects have come into focus.

• WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COVID-19
• No vaccine, cure, or direct treatment currently exists to address COVID-19… 
• What are the COVID-19 symptoms to look out for?
• Symptoms of this infection include fever, cough and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. The illness causes lung lesions and pneumonia. But milder cases may resemble the flu or a bad cold, making detection difficult.  Patients also may exhibit other symptoms, such as gastrointestinal problems or diarrhea.
• Current estimates suggest that symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days after exposure to the virus.
• How does COVID-19 compare to the flu?
• While the symptoms are similar, the coronavirus seems to be more deadly than the flu — so far — and more contagious. Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been around 2 percent, while the seasonal flu, on average, kills about 0.1 percent of people who become infected.
• Viral particles are the transmission vehicle of the coronavirus and must travel within mucus or saliva — and they must enter through eyes, nose or mouth to become infected.  While the coronavirus can last on surfaces like tray tables, touch screens, door handles and faucets — one study found that other coronaviruses, like SARS and MERS stay on metal, glass and plastic for up to nine days — a disinfectant on a hard surface, or soap while washing your hands, will kill the virus.  However, most people tend to touch their faces more often than they realize. Doing so after touching a surface where droplets from when someone sneezed or coughed can lead to the virus being passed on.
• In the new study, researchers analyzed several dozen previously published papers on human coronaviruses to get a better idea of how long they can survive outside of the body. The authors found that these coronaviruses can linger on surfaces for over a week but that some of them don’t remain active for as long at temperatures higher than 86 degrees Fahrenheit, and can also be effectively wiped away by household disinfectants.
• The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced changes that will significantly expand coronavirus tests in the coming days. That will likely uncover many U.S. Covid-19 cases.

• Will Technology or Common Sense Saves Us – perhaps both
• Beginning about half a million years ago, the first human beings emerged in Africa, and eventually migrated around the rest of the world in search of game and other sources of food.
• About 11,000 years ago, certain human beings developed agriculture—a major milestone in human history, and which led to the domestication of animals to assist with agricultural work.
• As agricultural societies grew they developed immunity to deadly diseases like smallpox. Constant proximity to domesticated animals, combined with increased population density, meant that new germs were constantly circulating in agricultural societies.
• As a result, these societies became resistant to many epidemics—those who couldn’t survive died off, while those with immunity survived and passed on their immunity to their offspring.
• The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is an example of 21^st century pandemic.
• As the Covid-19 outbreak continues to spread worldwide by a world that is now physically connected by travel defined in hours, rather than weeks or months. More people, more chances for contract and spreading the virus globally faster, resulting in greater numbers of people across the globe become critically ill faster, while scientists race to find a treatment.
• Dozens of medicines are in clinical trials in China—and now in the U.S.—to treat the disease, officially named COVID-19. Some are antiviral drugs that are already used to narrowly target other viruses.  Experts say these medications are unlikely to do much against the novel coronavirus.
• Other drugs being tested—such as the broad-spectrum antiviral Remdesivir, developed by Gilead Sciences—could prove quite effective, some evidence suggests. But only the rigorous, controlled clinical studies now underway will be able to confirm this possibility.  Remdesivir has been shown to be effective against many other viruses, and some experts are optimistic that it—or similar compounds—may work for the pathogen responsible for COVID-19.
• 
• Remdesivir was given to the first known U.S. coronavirus patient: a man in Washington State who had recently returned from the outbreak’s epicenter in Wuhan, China. And he has made a good recovery.
• But that patient is, of course, only a single person, and a larger sample size will be needed to determine the drug’s efficacy.
• Two trials of remdesivir are currently underway in China: one for severe cases of COVID-19 and the other for mild or moderate cases. Results for both trials are expected in April.
• Another clinical trial is planned in the U.S., and it will be run by the University of Nebraska Medical Center and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. That trial will take months to be conducted and at up to 50 sites around the world, testing Remdesivir against a placebo.

• Politics, Blind Faith versus Common Sense and Science
• In the past few days President Trump has been forced to face a crisis, this one not of his own making.   Last Friday (2/28), as global markets continued to plunge amid growing fears about the coronavirus outbreak, Trump and his allies pulled from a familiar playbook and blamed others for the market slide on the coronavirus (alarmists).  Those directly in their cross-hairs are familiar targets of deflection and blame: the media, and by extension Democrats, blamed for using the cononavirus outbreak as “their new hoax”.
• Trump can blame others, as he frequently does for problems of his own making, but he cannot hide from the facts that after years of slashing funding for the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the Department of Health and Human Services, his Administration has left entire arms of our government underfunded and understaffed, and now as the nation faces a growing global pandemic, the check has come due.
• Within the administration, there’s strong pressure not to contradict Trump’s line, and when Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, warned that community spread of coronavirus in America was inevitable, the president was reportedly furious — the Administration’s follow-up response, director of the C.D.C. said “she misspoke.”
• Instead of allowing CDC experts to guide a science based strategy to combat this public health threat, they’ve been silencing experts. Placing the “invisible’ Vice President Mike Pence — an avid science denier — in charge of a public health emergency may very well define, ahead of impeachment, Trump and his administration…
• From the beginning, Trump minimized the scale of the crisis, portraying it as a purely foreign threat that could be addressed by closing borders. At a Feb. 26 news conference, he claimed there were 15 cases in America, omitting those diagnosed overseas. “The 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero,” he said. At that time, there had been more than 210 cases confirmed across the country and 12 deaths.
• Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, a vice dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and author of “The Public Health Crisis Survival Guide,” said in response to Trump’s statements re COVID-19: “One of the huge lessons is: Don’t politicize the communications. You really need credible communicators who people believe.”

Locally, more than 80% of the COVID-19 related deaths in Hawaii have been among people older than 65.   So far, approximately 35,000 doses have been administered to mostly medical workers, first responders and individuals 75 and older across the islands, according to the Hawaii Department of Health.

Stage One, per CDC vaccination guidelines, call for vaccine availability to be divided into three layers of availability. Previously reported by Hawaii’s DOH, the state’s  COVID-19 Vaccination Plan foresees 883,600 people in Hawaii will be vaccinated during the first three layers in Stage one.  Thereafter, in Stage two, anyone left unvaccinated will have access to the vaccine.

• Stage 1.a – will be divided into two phases, first it covers high-risk health workers and first-responders followed by people with comorbidities and underlying health conditions that put them at high risk and adults over age 65 living in “overcrowded settings.” It’s estimated 121,000 will be vaccinated during stage one.

• Stage 1.b – includes K-12 teachers and school staff; critical risk workers; people with comorbidities and underlying health conditions that put them at moderately high risk; people in homeless shelters or group homes; incarcerated individuals and staff at incarceration facilities; and all adults over age 65 (with or without pre-existing medial conditions). An estimated 450,000 people would be vaccinated during stage two.

• Stage 1.c – an additional 403,000 people would be vaccinated, including young adults between age 18 and 24 and children up to age 17 and workers in industries and occupations not included in earlier stages.

• • Stage Two – will focus on vaccinating an undetermined number of Hawaii residents who did not have access to or receive a vaccination during the earlier stages.

State Vaccination Plan Ignores “Pre-existing Conditions”

Hawaii residents between 65 and 75, with pre-existing conditions, will likely be forced to wait until possible Spring of 2021 (stage 1.b plan timeline projection) before they have access to the vaccine.

This group of residents (65-74) has a greater chance for medical complications and death from contracting COVID-19 than those individuals without pre-existing conditions. Yet, they are excluded from the 1.a priority group before becoming eligible to receive the life-saving COVID-19 vaccination.

To date, of the COVID-19 identified in Hawaii, 7% have required hospitalization, 347 have died, with a total statewide case count of 323,443, (93% are residents).

So far, nearly 71,000 doses have been administered, representing about 5% of the state’s population. Statewide vaccinations to date have been limited to medical workers, first responders, individuals 75 and older, and so-called essential workers, according to the Hawaii Department of Health.

As of January 24, 2021

For Hawaii Island, Queen’s North Hawaii Community Hospital in Waimea reported that some of the eight trays of 975 doses were shipped earlier to the neighboring islands.  Confirmed vaccination distribution centers include Kona Community Hospital, HHSC’s West Hawaii Region, which includes Kohala Hospital, Alii Health Center and the Kona Ambulatory Surgery Center. Kaiser Permanente is also vaccinating pre-qualified recipients in Oahu, but did not respond to our request for information on the health system’s vaccination plans for Hawaii Island. Federal guidelines previously called for major pharmacies participation in the distribution of vaccine.

On the new president’s first day, President Biden, invoking his emergency presidential powers enacted the “Defense Production Act”. The stated goal is making available to all fifty states enough vaccines to inoculate at least 100 million Americans within his first 100 days.

Hawaii’s Vaccination Plan Slowly Rolls Out, Governor Ige tells public to be patient

States struggle to decide who should get Covid vaccine first

The federal government’s vaccine, therapeutics and medical supply development initiative, Operation Warp Speed, has spent more than $18bn to get pharmaceutical interventions for Covid-19 to market. But just a fraction of that has been allocated for distribution in the most logistically complex vaccination campaign in American history.

A widely cited study in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine found roughly 75% of US residents would need to develop immunity to “extinguish the epidemic”. That level has never been reached by the annual flu vaccine, which usually around half the population takes. The vaccines are untested in children, which means 70 million Americans under age 16 will not be eligible to receive the vaccine, underscoring the need for high adult uptake.

Two vaccine candidates lead the race. One, Pfizer and BioNTech, which has an infamously difficult -94F (-70C) ultra-cold storage requirement and was just approved by the United Kingdom. A second is developed by Moderna and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. If independent analyses bear out publicly released data, both would be among the most effective vaccines in medicine.

With both vaccines now approved for distribution, federal authorities believe there will be enough doses initially to vaccinate 20 million people. That may still fall short of vaccinating everyone in the highest-priority groups, and a drop in bucket in a country with a population of 331 million citizens.

There are roughly 20 million healthcare workers in the US, ranging from nurses to home health aides to hospital housekeepers. Another 3 million people live in long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes and assisted living facilities.

What the polls say about Americans’ willingness to get the vaccine

Five pollsters that have recently tracked how Americans feel about a coronavirus vaccine have found a mixed willingness to receive one, with a range of 45 to 61 percent of the public saying they will or are likely to get the injections.

The seven surveys, conducted by five firms since Nov. 1, illustrate the possible challenges that may await public health officials as they seek to inoculate Americans against a virus that has sickened more than 16 million and killed over 300,000.

Pfizer and Moderna, the companies behind the two vaccine front-runners, have said their drugs are safe and effective. But many of those who are unwilling or unsure about coronavirus vaccination say they are not very confident in the safety of the development and approval process or in the federal government’s ability to oversee it, the polls found.

In a Quinnipiac University poll published Wednesday, 6 in 10 registered voters said they’re willing to get a vaccine “if it is approved by government health officials.” But 37 percent said they would take the vaccine as soon as it’s available to them, while 41 percent said they would “wait a few months.”