In a year already marked by new lows in Donald Trump’s effort to dismantle climate actions and other effective national policies serving the common good, the Trump administration has taken extreme steps to roll back the clock on national progress. Some describe this Administration’s national dismantling policies and upheaval as; a great nation dying from death-by-a-thousand-cuts.
This month, the EPA formally proposed eliminating the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program—the nation’s only consistent public record of emissions from more than 8,000 industrial facilities—a move that would blind policymakers and the public to rising pollution in order to cut compliance costs for big polluters.
By most metrics, 2025 has been the worst year for the American scientific enterprise in modern history.
Since January, the Trump administration has made deep cuts to the nation’s science funding, including more than $1 billion in grants to the National Science Foundation, which sponsors much of the basic research at universities and federal laboratories, and $4.5 billion to the National Institutes of Health. Thousands of jobs for scientists and staff members have been terminated or frozen at these and other federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Park Service.
To thousands of researchers — veteran scientists and new grad students at state universities and Ivy League institutions alike — these sweeping reductions translate as direct personal losses. Each may mean a layoff, a shuttered lab, a yearslong experiment or field study abruptly ended, graduate students turned away; lost knowledge, lost progress, lost investment, lost stability; dreams deferred or foreclosed.
“This government upheaval is discouraging to all scientists who give their time and lend their brilliance to solve the problems beleaguering humankind instead of turning to some other activity that makes a more steady living,” Gina Poe, a neuroscientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, wrote in an email.
Next year looks to be worse. The 2026 budget proposed by the White House would slash the National Science Foundation by 56.9 percent, the N.I.H. by 39.3 percent and NASA by 24.3 percent, including 47.3 percent of the agency’s science-research budget. It would entirely eliminate the U.S. Geological Survey’s $299 million budget for ecosystems research; all U.S. Forest Service research ($300 million) and, at NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, all funding ($625 million) for research on climate, habitat conservation and air chemistry and for studying ocean, coastal and Great Lakes environments. The Trump administration has also proposed shutting down NASA and NOAA satellites that researchers and governments around the world rely on for forecasting weather and natural disasters.
Breaking News
(October 9th 2025)
More than 40 Trump administration picks tied directly to oil, gas and coal, analysis shows: report looks at White House nominees and appointees and agencies dictating energy, environment and climate policy
The analysis comes as The Guardian reported: Trump wages broad attacks on climate and energy policies and on renewable energy. The president’s so-called one big beautiful act, for instance, opened swaths of federal land to drilling and mining and sped the phaseout of renewable energy incentives. The administration has also launched an unprecedented assault on climate science, including with an energy department report on climate change that experts derided as full of misinformation.
Another 12 Trump officials, the Guardian reported have ties to fossil fuel-funded rightwing thinktanks. Among them: former employees and fellows of the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative group that has fought renewable energy and made what it calls “the moral case for fossil fuels”, as well as the anti-environmentalist group Americans for Prosperity (AFP), which is backed by the fossil fuel moguls the Koch brothers.
“This government upheaval is discouraging to all scientists who give their time and lend their brilliance to solve the problems beleaguering humankind instead of turning to some other activity that makes a more steady living,” Gina Poe, a neuroscientist at the University of California”.
At the same time, the Trump Justice Department is in court seeking to strike down “polluter pays” laws in New York and Vermont, which would require fossil fuel giants to join-in funding climate adaptation and disaster recovery efforts.
In today’s GOP-controlled White House, Congress, and Supreme Court majority, industry interests and their allies are pushing this fossil fuel friendly President and his political agents to ensure Federal regulatory laws are designed to protect oil and gas companies from future climate lawsuits, stripping states and communities of one of their few remaining tools to hold polluters accountable
Climate Science vs. Polluter Politics
By most metrics, 2025 has been the worst year for the American scientific enterprise in modern history.
Since January, the Trump administration has made deep cuts to the nation’s science funding, including more than $1 billion in grants to the National Science Foundation, which sponsors much of the basic research at universities and federal laboratories, and $4.5 billion to the National Institutes of Health. Thousands of jobs for scientists and staff members have been terminated or frozen at these and other federal agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Park Service.
During his first term and following his inauguration in 2025, Trump has targeted for elimination fundamental climate policies and critical research programs.
Cancellation of Climate Research: In 2025, the administration began canceling numerous federally funded climate science studies, including those focused on greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impacts.
Data collection: The administration ended the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, a comprehensive method for tracking emissions from industrial facilities. Funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Global Change Research Program has also been cut.
Endangerment finding: The most significant proposed rollback is to eliminate the 2009 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “endangerment finding,”which states that greenhouse gases threaten public health and forms the legal basis for regulating these emissions undertheClean Air Act. The administration argues that previous officials overstepped their authority.
Withdrawal from Paris Agreement: Trump formally withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on climate change in his first term. In his second term, he signed an executive order to again withdraw the U.S. from the pact.
Fuel efficiency standards: Regulations mandating stricter fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks were weakened. The move also eliminated California’s national lead in establishing its long-held ability to set its own, more stringent standards.
The Administration’s 2025 assaults on Climate Science and the advancement of the nation’s transition to Clean Energy have been demonstrated by policy swings with a club, not a pen, and lack justification or merit, and are consistently devoid of scientific, economic and social justifications. Just one example; eliminating the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program—the nation’s only consistent public record of emissions from more than 8,000 industrial facilities—is a move that would blind policymakers and the public to rising pollution levels and the associated pollution costs to public health. It is a question of benefits of compliance vs. big polluter profit priorities which historically come in the form of rising public health costs.
Today, every Federal agency responsible for ubiquitous public protections and regulatory rules and processes, especially those agencies responsible and engaged in mission of serving a greater good, now find themselves on a twisted path of transformation from pubic service-to-public corruption.
On President Donald Trump’s first day in office, he issued a memorandumhaltingapprovals, permits, leases and loans for both offshore and onshore wind projects.
The One Big (bad) Beautiful Bill Act, which passed in July with exclusively Republican support, accelerated the phaseout of tax credits promised under the Inflation Reduction Act for wind and solar projects. Subsequent guidance from the U.S. Treasury Department further constrained eligibility rules. And as bipartisan permitting reform takes center stage in Congress, critics have expressed doubt over whether a technology-neutral bill would still benefit renewable energy development under the current administration.
The actions of this present Administration, altogether, now come just as a wave of new climate-connected studies and reports underscore the social, economic, environmental, and planetary harms of fossil fuel pollution and rising CO2 levels. Recently, scientists has discovered global Ocean Acidity increases, which have risen 30–40% since the industrial era. Changes now pushing marine ecosystems well beyond safe limits and onto the brink of extinction. Ocean breaching has already been occuring at unprecedented levels in seven of nine planetary boundaries that define humanity’s “safe operating space.”
A new study also warns that climate change will drive more lightning-sparked wildfires across 98% of the western U.S., as rising temperatures fuel both increased lightning and hotter, drier fire weather. Recent studies further confirm that wildfire smoke caused more than 41,000 excess deaths per year from 2011 to 2020 and suggests that the mortality and economic costs of smoke could become among the most significant and costly consequences of climate change. (Washington Post, August 2025)
A new Realtor.com analysis found that one in four U.S. homes face severe or extreme climate risks, with hurricane winds, floods, and wildfires threatening property values and driving up insurance costs.
And in a timely counterpoint to proposed federal rollbacks, the nonprofit Climate TRACE has launched a public tool that uses satellite observations, AI, and open datasets to track emissions down to the facility level. Covering more than 660 million sources worldwide, the tool reveals how pollution from the top 10 percent of “super-emitters” exposes nearly 900 million people to dangerous PM2.5 and greenhouse gases. As official reporting systems face dismantling, Climate TRACE offers a vital line of transparency, showing in real time who is polluting, where the plumes travel, and who is breathing the consequences.
A new UN-backed report warns that governments’ planned fossil fuel production for 2030 is more than double what’s compatible with the world’s 1.5°C greenhouse gas target.
Extenuating Circumstances
Amid the U.S. retreat from global climate leadership, Chinahas pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% and increase renewable energy to 30% over the next decade—its first such commitment—though experts say the goal falls far short of what’s needed.
On April 29, 2025, CAC (Climate Action Campaign) released the; 100 Days, 100 Harms Tracker which offers a fairly clear picture of the pain the present administration had already inflicted on the Cclimate Science, and America’s growing Clean Energy Economy. Within these national changes are the public health and coats and wellbeing of the American people, which are now at stake — and all within the first 100 days of current Trump administration and continuing GOP stranglehold on a Congress, now no longer inclined to serve the public interests, but instead to serve as political agents of Trump-designated special interests, who are clearly not serving the America’s interests.
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Trump-Digs-Coal.png150162Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-10-09 06:18:492025-10-09 12:38:01Climate & Health Policies Under Attack
In eastern Ukraine, Moscow’s war machine has been churning mile by mile through the wide open fields of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions – also known as the Donbas – surrounding and overwhelming villages and towns.
It has been trying to gain full control of the area along with two more regions to the west – Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Shortly after the invasion, Russia held referendums to try to annexe all these regions – in the same way it had annexed Crimea in 2014 – but it has never had them under full control.
Putin preparing to attack another European country, Zelenskyy says
Speaking in Kyiv after his meeting with Donald Trump at the UN in New York, the Ukrainian president said Russia was preparing for a bigger conflict.
Ukraine’s president said Friday (9-27) that the Kremlin is testing Europe’s capacity to protect its skies following new drone sightings. Vladimir Putin will expand his war in Ukraine by attacking another European country, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has predicted, and accused Russia of recent drone incursions that he said were an attempt to test Nato’s defences.
In recent months Kyiv has carried out a series of successful strikes against Russian oil refineries using domestically produced long-range drones. Zelenskyy said that if the Kremlin tried to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure again this winter its own capital will experience retaliatory blackouts.
Nato confirms Russian MiG-31s over Estonia and Poland airspace
Russian jets violated both NATO member countries, including oil platform safety zones in the Baltic Sea, incursions well inside NATO countries
(Sept. 19,2025) Poland with the country’s Border Force reporting that two Russian fighter jets violated the safety zone of the Petrobaltic oil and gas exploration platform in the Baltic Sea by performing a low pass (buzzing) the Polish oil platform, well inside and its territory.
(Sept. 26,2025) Russian incursions were also cited in Estonian airspace ‘direct threat to transatlantic security,’ Ukrainian foreign minister said earlier in a statement that “today’s incursion of three Russian fighter jets into Estonian airspace is another Russian escalation and a direct threat to transatlantic security.”
German foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, said ‘This principle of Nato has lost none of its relevance. The unacceptable violations of Polish and Estonian airspace by Russia today and earlier demonstrates this with utmost clarity.”
A lot about this event and others recently demonstrate the Russian incursions of fighter jets and drones into NATO border countries is clearly intentional. One drone might go astray, but this was more than a dozen drones entering Polish territory, even as none appear to have been reported in Slovakia, Hungary, and Estonia, all neighboring NATO countries to Russia’s border. As one military expert stated, “That’s how Putin operates: He tests and measures the reaction. If this challenge to NATO is met with nothing more than indignant tweets, he will escalate further. He is trying to bully NATO countries into backing away from supporting Ukraine, as he has bullied so many others.”
Whatever Donald Trump discussed with Vladimir Putin in Alaska last month, the outcome has only been a stepped increase in Russian aggression that has now forced Nato’s military into action. On Tuesday night 19 Russian drones entered the country’s airspace, according to the prime minister, Donald Tusk – a number that cannot be easily explained away as accidental.
Until that point, Russia’s war in Ukraine had not spilled over in a notable way to a Nato country. Though the drone incursion cannot be described as militarily significant (only one house has been reported damaged so far) the Polish incident is qualitatively different from anything that has happened since February 2022.
Speaking on Wednesday, UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said: “The incident… again underlines the regional impact and real risk of expansion of this devastating conflict.”
European leaders told the Associated Press they believe the incursion was an intentional expansion of Russia’s war on Ukraine rather than being a mistake. “Russia’s war is escalating, not ending,” European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told the AP;“What Putin wants to do is to test us”.
This is not unexpected. Military officials have long been concerned that Putin might intensify Russia’s war in Ukraine by striking Ukrainian supply lines in Poland, but until now he apparently has calculated that the risks are not worth it. I wonder if he believes that President Trump’s refusal to hold Moscow accountable so far makes this a good time to see if he can get away with attacks on NATO territory.
NATO scrambles jets to shoot down Russian drones in Poland, raising fears of war spillover
The overnight incursion into Poland’s territory, and over one of NATO’s best-armed member states also shows the corrosive effect of Europe’s military incapacity and America’s lack of political will. The combination has allowed Russia to seize the initiative in Ukraine this year.Multiple Russian drones crossed into Poland in what European officials described Wednesday as a deliberate provocation, causing NATO to send fighter jets to shoot them down. A NATO spokesman said it was the first time the alliance confronted a potential threat in its airspace.The incursion, which occurred during a wave of strikes by the Kremlin on Ukraine, and the NATO response swiftly raised fears that the war could spill over — a fear that has been growing in Europe as Russia steps up its attacks and peace efforts go nowhere.
European countries need to work on a “joint air defense system and create an effective air shield over Europe,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday;‘We need to work on a joint air defense system…over Europe’. “We need to work on a joint air defense system and create an effective air shield over Europe. Ukraine has long proposed this, and we have concrete solutions. We must respond together to all current challenges and be ready for potential threats to all Europeans in the future. Likewise, we need to significantly increase joint funding for the production of interceptor drones. They have already proven their effectiveness.”
There are several lessons Europe and the US should take away from Russia’s unprecedented decision to send drones into Poland as part of another Kremlin attack on Ukraine.
One is that nobody should ever againdismiss the idea that Russia—struggling so mightily in Ukraine—would ever take on a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member. It just did, Champion writes. Nineteen drones entered Polish airspace, according to Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, enough to make clear it was deliberate and for Poland to invoke NATO’s Article 4, calling on allies to consult when a member is under threat.
August 2025
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Donald Trump expressed hope that their White House summit Monday with European leaders could eventually result in trilateral talks with Vladimir Putin over ending Russia’s war on Ukraine.Ukraine’s European allies arrived in Washington (8-18) skeptical that Putin really wants peace, and apprehensive that Trump will try to force Kyiv into making unpalatable concessions.
The Republican president has long echoed Kremlin talking points when it comes to the war, including that Ukraine should give up territory to end Russia’s onslaught.
President Zelenskiy and EU allies met with Trump earlier today, a meeting arranged hurriedly after the one-on-one Trump-Putin in Alaska last Friday. The meeting takeaway was the onus was on Zelenskiyto-end-the-conflict.
Ukrainian officials view of the latest round of hope and peace talks were difficult to balance expectations as Russian attacks escalate, and Putin continues to demonstrate he does not intend to stop the hostilities short of Ukraine’s surrender.
Russia can only be forced into peace through strength’, Zelenskyy says as he bids for Trump’s backing
August 18th; Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US envoy Keith Kellogg ahead of what he described as a “very serious” meeting with Trump and other European leaders later today.
“When peace is discussed for one country in Europe, it means peace for all of Europe. We are ready to continue working with maximum effort to end the war and to ensure reliable security. These are the key issues.
Last night, Russian attacks on our cities continued – among those killed were two children, and dozens of people were wounded. People were simply sleeping when the Russian army launched strikes on the cities.
We discussed the battlefield situation and our strong diplomatic capabilities – Ukraine’s and all of Europe’s together with America. Russia can only be forced into peace through strength, and President Trump has that strength. We have to do everything right to make peace happen.
US president Trump will meet with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy first in about an hour from now, with the Europeans only joining the talks later.
On the European side of the table, there will be one notable absence as Poland will not have a representative, despite being part of the previous rounds of consultations with Trump, including days before the Alaska summit last week.
Since his election, the country’s new nationalist and Trump-backed president, Karol Nawrocki, has been at loggerheads with the pro-European coalition government led by former European Council president, Donald Tusk, including over who owns the relationship with the US.
On the European side of the table, there will be one notable absence as Poland will not have a representative, despite being part of the previous rounds of consultations with Trump, including days before the Alaska summit last week.
Since his election, the country’s new nationalist and Trump-backed president, Karol Nawrocki, has been at loggerheads with the pro-European coalition government led by former European Council president, Donald Tusk, including over who owns the relationship with the US.
‘Russia can only be forced into peace through strength’, Zelenskyy says as he bids for Trump’s backing
Last night, Russian attacks on our cities continued – among those killed were two children, and dozens of people were wounded. People were simply sleeping when the Russian army launched strikes on the cities.
We discussed the battlefield situation and our strong diplomatic capabilities – Ukraine’s and all of Europe’s together with America. Russia can only be forced into peace through strength, and President Trump has that strength. We have to do everything right to make peace happen, Zelenskyy said.
July 2025
Trump does indirect deal through Nato surrogates to arm Ukraine, and warns Russia of severe sanctions
President Trump says he will supply Kyiv with billions of dollars of military equipment paid for by European allies, promising large-scale arms deliveries to Ukraine, including Patriot missiles, and he also warned Russia that it will face severe sanctions if Moscow does not make peace within 50 days.
Speaking in the White House alongside a clearly delighted Rutte, the US president said the arms deliveries would be comprehensive and would include the Patriot missile batteries that Ukraine desperately needs for its air defences against a daily Russian aerial onslaught.
“It’s everything: it’s Patriots. It’s all of them. It’s a full complement, with the batteries,” Trump said.
He did not go into any more detail, but made clear the weapons would be entirely paid for by Washington’s European allies, and that initial missile deliveries would come “within days” from European stocks, on the understanding they would be replenished with US supplies.
Russian Drone Attacks – death by a thousand cuts
Hundreds of Russian drones flying from all directions attacked Kyiv overnight into Thursday (7/10) in an apparent new Russian tactic, marking a second consecutive night of ferocious attacks on Ukraine.
Russia has been intensifying its aerial attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks, but the assault on Thursday appeared to mark a change in approach from Moscow.
Russia launched 400 drones and 18 missiles, including eight ballistic and six cruise missiles, according to a Telegram post from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
They were flying at different altitudes, and attacking from all directions — with some of the drones initially bypassing the capital before abruptly changing direction and speeding back towards the city.
While Kyiv has previously experienced attacks from multiple directions, as Russian drones attempted to bypass the city’s air defenses, the assault on Thursday saw the drones launching towards the city simultaneously, effectively encircling Kyiv before attacking. This made guarding the capital’s skies even more challenging for the strained Ukrainian air defenses. Yet the Ukrainian Air Force said it shot down or disabled 382 of the 415 aerial weapons Russia launched at the country overnight, including all of the ballistic and cruise missiles. That is a stunning success given the scale of the attack, especially given Ukraine’s limited access to air defense systems.
U.S. Policy Flip Flop
President Trump has often expressed, without merit, his skepticism of U.S. aid to Ukraine and admiration for Mr. Putin. In recent days Trump’s tone has shifted as the realities of this war have begun to reshape this new President’s thinking and policy now guiding US support for Ukraine.
On Monday, Trump said in an about face that he was “not happy with President Putin at all” and announced that the United States would reinstate US weapons supplies to Ukraine to assist fending off Russia’s ongoing and escalating aerial attacks on the Country. Trump’s comments contradicted his administration recent policy shift in cutting off military aid to Ukraine. On Tuesday (7/08), and in a awakening moment, Mr. Trump stepped up his criticism of Mr. Putin, accusing him of duplicity. “We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump told reporters during a recent cabinet meeting. “He’s very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”
Russia’s sustained assault in recent days has injected new urgency into questions surrounding Washington’s commitment to defending Ukraine, as the Trump administration pledged to send additional defensive weaponry to Kyiv in an apparent policy reversal.
June 2025
Russia has launched biggest air attack of three-year war on Ukraine
June 29th, 2025 – Russia has fired more than 500 aerial weapons at Ukraine overnight, in a barrage that Kyiv described as the biggest air attack so far of the three-year war. Ukraine state media reported earlier in the day that it lost one F-16 fighter and its pilot defending Ukraine’s airspace from the massive Russian aerial attack. Ukraine’s air force also confirmed Sunday that Russia had fired 477 drones and decoys as well as 60 missiles overnight. While 475 of these were shot down or lost, the onslaught marked the “most massive airstrike” on the country since Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Yuriy Ihnat, head of communications for Ukraine’s air force, told the Associated Press.
The bombing appeared to target several regions far from the frontline, he said, including in western Ukraine. The Russian army said on Sunday its overnight attack hit Ukrainian military-industrial complex sites and oil refineries, and that it had intercepted three Ukrainian drones overnight.
The scale of the attacks called into question comments made on Friday by Vladimir Putin, in which the Russian president said that Moscow was ready for a fresh round of direct peace talks in Istanbul.
Bloomberg reported earlier this month, that the Russian economy is facing a worsening outlook, with a slowdown in growth, accelerating inflation, and labor shortages, which could raise questions about President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Russian banking officials warn of a credible risk of a systemic banking crisis in the next 12 months due to a growing number of corporate and retail clients failing to make loan payments. Bad debt on Russian banks’ balance sheets is estimated to be in trillions of rubles, with borrowers deferring payments, and the true magnitude of the debt problem may be masked by official figures.
Strains within the banking system could raise wider questions for President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain Russia’s war in Ukraine that’s already in its fourth year, especially if Kyiv’s US and European allies were to target the Russian financial sector with harsher sanctions. The European Union is currently discussing fresh restrictions on more Russian banks.
The military’s demand for manpower intensified labor shortages, however, and helped drive a wage spiral that boosted the incomes of many Russians but also fueled accelerating inflation to an annual peak of more than 10% in the overheating economy.
Ukraine’s supporters have also been pushing for Donald Trump to hit Russia with tough new sanctions after Putin rejected calls for a ceasefire in the war to allow for peace talks. So far, Trump has held off taking any measures.
Russia’s Summer Offensive: Moscow’s forces are making battlefield gains in eastern Ukraine across multiple fronts in an advance that has shifted the war’s rhythm. Both sides are trying a new tactic, with Russia advancing around Kostyantynivka and in the Sumy region with small, fast-moving units as both sides try a new tactic of using motorcycles and civilian cars to quickly cross open terrain. “It’s a kind of renaissance of the cavalry, but with internal combustion engines,” said Col. Viktor Kevliuk, an analyst at Ukraine’s Center for Defense Strategies.
Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi estimates that Russia has 695,000 troops deployed across an expanded front line and 121,000 in strategic reserve. Syrskyi went on to state that Ukraine will continue deep strikes inside Russian territory and is preparing for a protracted war, with the possibility of new counteroffensives to combat Russia’s latest push. In the meantime, President Zelenskiy claims that Ukraine has evidence that Russia is preparing new military operations on European territory, citing a report by Ukraine’s defense intelligence chief.
The fighting is intensifying even as cease-fire talks stalled.
Last month (May 2025), Russian forces seized roughly 173 square miles, more than double April’s gains, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian group that maps the conflict using combat footage. Most gains came south of Kostyantynivka, in the Donetsk region, and near the Russian border in the northern Sumy region.
The most recent round of negotiations, held this month in Istanbul, yielded little result beyond an agreement to exchange prisoners and the bodies of fallen soldiers. The exchange continued on Saturday, with Ukraine saying that it had received 1,200 bodies, and that more prisoners had been returned.
Fighting Off Drones: On a “hot night,” when Russia tries to overwhelm Kyiv’s air defenses, Ukraine relies not only on Patriot missiles, but on civilians wielding searchlights and vintage guns.
Kostyantynivka, a Ukrainian operations hub, will likely become Russia’s main effort in the coming months, with other fronts serving the supporting role of preventing Ukraine from sending reinforcements to this fight.
The first step is to try to isolate Kostyantynivka from multiple directions, in a “semi-encirclement,” he said, isolating Ukrainian units while maintaining a narrow, hazardous corridor for retreat. The idea would be to advance eastward across the T-0504 road; northward from Toretsk; and westward from the hilltop town of Chasiv Yar. This would not be easy. Russian forces have been trying to capture Chasiv Yar for two years, since the nearby city of Bakhmut fell in the spring of 2023. So long as Chasiv Yar remains contested, Russia’s advance to Kostyantynivka will be slowed. Also, to the south, Russian forces are bogged down in urban fighting in Toretsk.
In some areas near Kostyantynivka, Russia has a manpower advantage of up to 20 to 1, Ukrainian commanders in the area say.
“Our task is to block their actions,” said Captain Filatov, a commander deployed along the line. His soldiers regularly engage in close-range combat while slowing retreating, he said.
A unit of a few dozen hundred typically repels 10 to 15 assaults per week, with as many as four in a single day, he said.
At the same time, frontline airstrikes have intensified, even after Ukraine’s destruction of at least a dozen Russian strategic bombers. At the start of May, Russia was carrying out 11 airstrikes a day. That pace has picked up to 17 in June, said Lt. Col. Dmytro Zaporizhets, spokesman for Ukraine’s Luhansk Operational Tactical Group.
As of June 2025, the war front remains fluid, with Russian forces looking for weaknesses and Ukrainian troops scrambling to hold defensive lines.
May 2025
Breaking News
Moscow has launched its third consecutive night of massive drone strikes against Ukraine, killing at least six people, as Donald Trump broke his silence to suggest the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, had “gone crazy”.
Overnight on Monday, Russia fired a record 355 Shahed drones as well as nine cruise missiles, in an escalating drone campaign targeting Ukraine’s cities and communities, with Ukraine’s air force spokesperson, Yuriy Ignat, confirming it was the largest drone attack since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
While the US president railed against Putin, saying he had “gone absolutely CRAZY”, he also criticised the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for calling out US inaction against Russia.
“Something has happened to [Putin]. He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” Trump said of the Russian president on Truth Social. “I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!”
Trump also posted that the Ukrainian leader “is doing his Country no favours by talking the way he does. Everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop.”
Zelenskyy, however, doubled down on his criticism on Monday. “Only a sense of total impunity can allow Russia to carry out such strikes and continue increasing their scale,” Zelensky said on social media, adding: “The increase in Russian strikes should be met with increased sanctions.”
While Trump had suggested earlier, speaking to reporters, that he may be considering new sanctions, there was no indication on Monday morning of any meaningful US action against Moscow.
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Trump’s Ukraine peace push is built on three illusions
First, Trump needs to address the obstacles standing in the way of a breakthrough agreement. Putin right now won’t even accept a ceasefire. Trump indulged him by agreeing Monday (5/19) that “the conditions for that [ceasefire] will be negotiated between the two parties, as it only can be, because they know details.” That’s a form of magical thinking.
Second, Trump needs to organize his peace process in a much more coherent way, if that is even possible, or it will fail. Trump and his messengers have used a confusing string of tactics, more a peace process of throwing mud upon a wall to see what sticks. First, the US Administration proposed limited ceasefires saving Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and granting Russia maritime domain.
That went nowhere, so the Trump team told the two sides to draft term sheets. They were wildly disparate (primarily from the Russian side still seeking to rewrite history which paints Ukraine as the aggressor. So then Trump turned to face-to-face talks. That ran aground in Istanbul, so on Monday it became a Trump-to-Putin process and a 2 hour remote meeting which ended in a dead-end for the cause of peace.
And now? Well, it seems Trump, unlike his mud on the wall peace process has failed so far, has decided he wants the parties to work it out themselves. This scattershot, ever-changing approach is a recipe for failure — and it reflects underlying mistaken assumptions, Trump’s unfounded and ungrounded views of the world and Putin’s predisposition to my way or the highway.
And third, it is the misconception that a crippled Ukraine can be compelled to surrender it’s history, culture and society to Moscow. Trump’s version of this doom days scenario is his phrase “you have no cards,” which he repeats often to President Volodymyr Zelensky. But it turns out that Ukraine has one very powerful card, which is strong support from Europe.
The Europeans recognize that if Putin overwhelms Ukraine, he will rebalance security relations across the continent. They see evidence of his ambitions in new military bases bordering Finland and the Baltic states, and in Putin’s campaign of paramilitary sabotage against Ukraine’s supporters.
Ukraine can get an acceptable deal in the negotiations ahead if Putin sees that Kyiv is ready to keep fighting with European help — and a bit of needed satellite intelligence from the United States. Kyiv wants Trump’s peace initiative to succeed, but Putin has other plans already in the works, and the Ukrainians see this, as they prepare for the likelihood whatever Trump purposes at this point it will likely fail, as it takes two to tango, and so far Putin is not interested in anything short of Ukraine’s surrender and a return to the bad old glory days of a USSR long since faded into history books of the last century.
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US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement – Pathway to Peace?
A new minerals agreement between the United States and Ukraine, coming just two months after the Oval Office blowup between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, gives America a stake in Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. And, compared with the deal Trump originally proposed, it is fairer to Ukraine.
Under the pact, the two countries would have equal control over a new fund to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction. The war-torn country would maintain full ownership of its minerals and would not be required to repay past American military support — something the White House had previously demanded.
The agreement covers only Ukraine’s future mineral wealth, including extraction of rare metals, oil and gas. The U.S. gets rights to those untapped resources, possibly worth trillions of dollars, helping to offset America’s reliance on China for minerals.
Any profits, if realized, would also count as repayment for future U.S. military assistance to Kyiv.
Ukraine did not receive U.S. security guarantees it was seeking.
The new Ukraine-US partnership deal makes clear to Russia that the United States is committed to a “long-term strategic alignment” between Washington and Kyiv and “a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine,”
Then, one day later, deepening the delusions that he has long displayed about the war and his own power to affect its course, Trump called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to his senses and stop the killing.
“Vladimir, STOP!” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing.”
Quite aside from the bone-chilling familiarity (has Trump ever addressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by his first name?), there’s the presumption that the Kremlin leader has ever regretted blowing up civilian apartments or cared what Trump or anyone else might think about his murderousness track record.
Trump’s plan (according to European sources who have seen the one-page outline) calls for the following:
Russian and Ukrainian troops cease-fire at their current positions on the battlefield. That means Moscow would control about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, including the bulk of its four easternmost (and, before the war, industrial-rich) provinces in Donbas.
The U.S. also lifts all economic sanctions that it imposed on Russia as a result of the February 2022 invasion.
Russia is recognized as controlling Crimea (which the Soviet Union had handed Ukraine as a gift in 1954, until Putin reannexed the peninsula in 2014).
The U.S. is barred from stationing peacekeeping troops in Ukraine after the ceasefire, and Ukraine is forbidden from ever joining the West’s NATO military alliance.
In exchange for all this, Russia is obliged to concede … well, it seems, nothing. In fact, Russian spokesmen continue to demand that even a temporary ceasefire be preceded by a settlement of all the war’s “root causes,” which it blames entirely on Ukraine.
As one NATO official told a reporter from Politico when asked what he thought of Trump’s proposal: “Did Putin write this for him?” Another diplomat responded with an “exploding head” emoji.
Russia’s state-controlled media certainly understood the gist of the deal, writing, “It’s practically a foregone conclusion the U.S. will pull out of Ukraine talks,” and “The unity of the West is gone. Geopolitically it’s no longer an alliance. Trumpism has destroyed the Atlantic consensus confidently and quickly.”
If that isn’t Trump’s aim as well, then one can only ask: What is his aim?
A case could be made that some of these elements might be woven into a peace deal after both sides—Russia and Ukraine—are ready, or can both be pressured, to stop fighting.
As for NATO, shortly after the 2022 invasion, Zelensky said he had “cooled off” on membership in the West’s military alliance as a trade-off for peace. He repeated the point this week. However, on both occasions, and several times in the interim, he has demanded some form of security guarantees from Western countries, asked what they might entail in the absence of a NATO slot, and heard nothing in return.
Zelensky also pointed out that, whatever Crimea’s checkered history, Ukraine’s constitution prohibits just letting it go. Trump waved away the legal niceties. If the Ukrainians want Crimea, he asked, “Why didn’t they fight for it 11 years ago” when Russian troops stormed and annexed it “without a shot being fired?”
There are a few good answers to this question. First, it’s worth noting that Zelensky wasn’t president until 2019, five years after the Crimean annexation and the subsequent incursions into eastern Ukraine by Russian special forces. Second, at the time of the annexation, Ukraine’s army had pretty much dissolved. (It would begin to rebuild, with the help of U.S. assistance and some European armies, during the Donbas wars preceding the 2022 invasion.) Third, the annexation seemed, at the time, to be a one-off event—Putin’s attempt to halt Kyiv’s pro-democracy movements from making an alliance with any Western organizations, especially the European Union.
Rubio was scheduled to attend the next round of peace talks along with Trump’s all-purpose emissary and fellow real-estate tycoon Steve Witkoff. But when Zelensky rejected the offer out of hand, they abandoned any such plans. There would still be a U.S. delegation, but one consisting of midlevel officials who would have—and be seen as having—little to no influence on the proceedings.
What exactly did Trump’s messenger Rubio mean when he said this past week that, if one side or the other rejected peace talks, the U.S. would just “move on.”
Two things stand out in that still-somewhat-ambiguous comment.
First, Trump has inveighed against only Zelensky for rejecting the specific deal. (To Putin, who not only rejected it but killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians as a sign of showing what he thought of it, Trump sent only a beggar’s plea—“Vladimir, STOP!”).
Second, will Trump now “move on” by taking a merely passive stance toward the war, turning his attention to diplomatic possibilities elsewhere? Or will he take further steps toward a geostrategic alliance with Moscow, in the course of which he will likely halt further military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine, possibly letting Kyiv fall and the U.S.-European alliance—which is most challengingly focused on the fate of Ukraine—crumble?
This is probably a distinction without a difference. Trump’s favoritism toward Russia has been clear for a long time. His hostility toward Ukraine has taken on a darker intensity. The events of the past 48 hours may have hardened these trends irreversibly, making the days of even-handedness—much less a return toward alliance with Ukraine—impossible.
Source; Fred Caplan,SLATE, April 24, 2025
Give Peace A Chance?
President Trump’s standing among Ukrainians is practically on life support. But many cheered one statement he made on Saturday after meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, questioning why President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would continue to pummel Ukraine as the United States is trying to broker peace talks.
The United States has been pushing Ukraine to accept a peace plan that seems a gift to Moscow. But a short meeting this past Friday (4/25/25) in the Vatican between Trump and Zelensky offered a glimmer of hope based on Trump’s comments glimmer of hope by his change in tone.
“It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social after meeting with Mr. Zelensky on the sidelines of Pope Francis’ funeral, Trump adding that Putin may need to be “dealt with differently” — with more sanctions.
The brief meeting between the two leaders was a victory of sorts for Mr. Zelensky and Ukraine at what is a critical juncture in the war since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The Trump plan for peace has been mostly a gift to Moscow. The proposal to date will force Kyiv to abandon its aspirations of joining NATO, and instead offers Ukraine only vague security guarantees from the United States, and at the same time the United States officially will recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Ukraine has rejected that deal, which the Trump administration had described as its final offer.
Ukrainians interviewed on Sunday in Kyiv acknowledged that Mr. Trump can change his mind with breakneck speed. But they took solace in the fact that the White House called Saturday’s conversation a “very productive discussion.”
Serhiy Hrabsky, a military analyst who is a former colonel in the Ukrainian Army, said Sunday that talk of a peace deal now was premature and that Moscow was playing “political Ping-Pong” with the Trump administration.
“Russia will not stop,” he added.
April 2025
Earlier in April …
The war between Russia and Ukraine is approaching a historic turning point: unless the Trump administration adjusts course, from support to abandonment, US military aid for Ukraine under Trump is about to cease.
The realities of the current moment are both clear and regrettable: Putin has shown no indication that he will agree to a ceasefire, so this war will continue, and the end of US security assistance is approaching. With the exit of United States military support for Ukraine, Europe now appears to be the only hope to help save Ukraine from the coming storm.
In the final months before leaving office, President Joe Biden made a series of key decisions to augment Ukraine’s stockpiles of vital U.S. munitions. Near the end of 2024, the Department of Defense supplied hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of rockets and hundreds of armored vehicles to Ukraine, fulfilling last December, a Biden commitment for an additional $1.25bn security assistance package to Ukraine. The supply bonus further enabled the continued and vital flow of US arms to Ukraine before the damaging pause in vital defense support, anticipated and then ordered by President Trump last month.
Before leaving office, President Biden’s vital defense lifeline to Ukraine delivered to the country badly needed defense mutations, but the $1.25bn defense aid package will soon be exhausted; and time is running out for Ukraine as US munitions previously supplied are depleted.
The United States still possesses several billion dollars in drawdown authority, which could be applied to additional Ukraine security assistance. But since taking office, Trump has not approved a single military aid package for Ukraine. Even if Trump were to reverse course and utilize this remaining drawdown authority, the amount available is insufficient to sustain US support for Ukraine over time.
European leaders are attempting to respond to the challenge presented by the Trump administration’s withdrawal-from-the-war policy since taking office earlier this year. Recently, NATO (without US participation) has committed itself to assisting in Ukraine survival, with or without the United States and in the absence of US leadership and military support. European discussions about a postwar reassurance force have been floated and are important, yet the actual war on Ukraine continues and the costs of war mount and escalate for both Ukraine and it allies.
The two key questions for Ukraine’s European backers are twofold
Can Ukraine persist with a combination of its own domestic production of weapons, European security assistance, and US intelligence sharing?; and
What is the most viable pathway to finance this support?
As a baseline, European countries should accept more risk tolerance in donating their own military equipment to Ukraine. Many European governments maintain significant stockpiles of artillery, rockets and air defense; given the stakes of this war, more of those capabilities should be provided to Ukraine. Meanwhile, these same European countries should increase defense spending to replenish their depleted weapons stockpiles over the longer term.
Second, Europe should direct more resources into Ukraine’s innovative defense industrial base. Ukraine is producing cutting-edge drones, munitions and air defense capabilities that are reducing, though not eliminating, its reliance on external security assistance. Now is the time to finance Ukraine’s indigenous production of weapons, which are helping to blunt Russian assaults across the front.
Third, the United Kingdom and France – as leaders in their support for Ukraine – should try to strike a deal with the Trump administration to secure additional air defense missiles for Ukraine. During the Biden administration, the United States diverted its air defense exports so that they would go to Ukraine first.
A coalition of European governments led by France and the UK could attempt to negotiate an agreement with the Trump White House to continue this policy – with the understanding that the Europeans will foot the bill. Under such an arrangement, participating European countries would purchase AMRAAM and Patriot missiles for Ukraine off US production lines, and the Department of Defense would prioritize those purchases given Ukraine’s acute and ongoing air defense requirements. Trump may refuse this offer, but there is no downside to making the pitch to broaden US defense exports that Ukraine desperately needs.
Fourth, European countries supporting Ukraine will need to decide how to pay for all of this.
One option is to dig into their own budgets. The other, more sustainable option is for Europe to seize the approximately $300bn in Russian sovereign assets currently immobilized in their jurisdictions. Those assets can be used to finance Ukraine’s defense industry, procure weapons from the US and around the world, and support the Ukrainian economy for years to come.
Strategically, those Russian assets would provide Zelenskyy with a durable source of non-US assistance, which would reduce Zelenskyy’s dependency on the US and increase his leverage in any negotiations to end the war. Many legal and policy experts have put forward strong arguments to justify seizure and to mitigate associated risks to the European economy. The costs of inaction today far outweigh the manageable risks of asset seizure.
The present realities of the Russia invasion of Ukraine are both clear and regrettable
Putin has shown no indication that he will agree to a ceasefire, so this war will continue, and the long standing US policy security assistance to Ukraine is approaching an end. Europe should move quickly to pursue the above steps and help save Ukraine from the coming storm.
March 2025
A resumption of US military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine
In a classic Trump about-face, the US … “will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine”. Speaking to reporters outside the White House on Tuesday, President Donald Trump, said the deal was for “a total ceasefire”.
The key part of a statement is that Ukraine was willing to “enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire which can be extended”. The interminum ceasefire goes further than a previous suggestion from Kyiv for an initial air and sea ceasefire, which left open the possibility of ground warfare to continue.
The announcement followed talks in Jeddah between US and Ukrainian officials designed in large part on repairing a relationship between the US and Ukraine (rather than combatants Russia and Ukraine) after a disastrous Oval Office blow-up between Trump and Ukraine’s leader, VolodymyrZelenskyy.
However, Zelenskyy’s key demand was that the US would provide it with security guarantees – essentially a commitment to protect it if Russia were to renege on any ceasefire or peace deal. The phrase “security guarantees” was absent from the joint statement, an omission noticed by world leaders. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, hailed the progress made in the Jeddah talks but cautioned that Kyiv needed “robust” security guarantees.
Zelenskyy said in a late-night video address that security guarantees would be agreed at a later time.
Donald Trump pauses all US military aid to Ukraine –
Pause will last until US president deems Ukraine’s leaders to have a good-faith commitment to peace, reports Bloomberg. The United States is pausing military aid to Ukraine, days after US President Donald Trump clashed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.
“This is not permanent termination of aid, it’s a pause,” a Trump administration official said. Bloomberg further reported that all US military equipment not currently in Ukraine would be paused, including weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in transit areas in Poland.
Pennsylvania Democratic representative Brendan Boyle, who is co-chair of the Congressional EU Caucus, has responded to the decision to pause funding, calling it, “reckless, indefensible, and a direct threat to our national security.”
“This aid was approved by Congress on a bipartisan basis – Republicans and Democrats alike recognized that standing with Ukraine is standing for democracy and against Putin’s aggression,” Boyle said in a statement.
“Yet, Trump, who has repeatedly praised Putin and undermined our allies, is now playing games with lives by withholding critical military assistance.”
Feb. 2025
— On the Political Front
The US and Ukraine failed to sign a critical minerals agreement after a Friday meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy devolved into a fiery exchange, fracturing relations between the two countries.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy came to Washington on Friday to seal a deal in which he would give the Trump administration access to mineral resources in his country.
The accord though came with NO US security guarantees as part of any ceasefire deal with Vladimir Putin or otherwise. Instead, it was payment for services rendered—the tens of billions of dollars in US aid over three years during which Russian soldiers, mercenaries and convicts laid waste to Ukrainian cities and towns.
In an Oval Office meeting, Zelenskiy sought to explain to President Donald Trump that Putin (who is wanted in The Hague for alleged war crimes) has repeatedly violated previous agreements. Zelenskiy said Ukraine would never accept a simple ceasefire to conclude the war and insisted a mineral deal wasn’t enough to ensure Ukraine’s security. He did all of this in front of the cameras, that’s when the fireworks began:
The Ukrainian leader departed the White House following the public spat, and a planned signing ceremony and press conference were canceled.
“He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace,” Trump said in a social media post shortly before Zelenskiy left the White House.
The clash, played in front of the television cameras, is a major setback for Zelenskiy, who was hoping the in-person meeting with Trump would help smooth out his relations with the American president and commit him to stronger backing for his country following his tilt toward Moscow.
Instead, the vicious tone of the exchange is likely to sow further doubt about Ukraine’s ability to stand up to Russia’s three-year invasion as it struggles with manpower on the battlefield and still relies heavily on US military aid. It’s also likely to alarm European allies, who have already been scrambling to fill the void being left by Washington.
The Ukrainian leader angered Trump and US Vice President JD Vance when he said he did not believe the planned deal would do enough to deter further Russian aggression.
“Putin will never stop and will go further and further,” Zelenskiy said, adding that the Russian leader “hates Ukrainians” and wanted to destroy the country. “We can do it, but it’s not enough,” he added of the deal.
“He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace,” Trump said in a social media post shortly before Zelenskiy left the White House.
Trump ‘surrendering to the Russians’ on Ukraine
Senator Jack Reed hits out at Trump’s verbal attacks on Ukrainian president and increased alignment with Russia.
In an interview on ABC News’ This Week, Democratic senator Jack Reed, a senior member of the Armed Services Committee, hit out at Trump’s recent verbal attacks on Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and increased alignment with Russia.
“Essentially, this is President Trump surrendering to the Russians,”Reed said. “This is not a statesman or a diplomat. This is just someone who admires Putin, does not believe in the struggle of the Ukrainians and is committed to cozying up to an autocrat.”
On Sunday (Feb-23), Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy said he wanted Trump to be a close partner to Ukraine, not just a mediator between two superpowers, the US and Russia, and would be willing to step down, if it would secure lasting peace for his country.
“If, to achieve peace, you really need me to give up my post, I’m ready. I can exchange it for Nato [membership]”, he said. “I don’t plan to stay in power for decades” he added. “But we won’t let Putin stay in power over Ukrainian territories either.”
Background
UK’s Prime Minster Keir Starmer has raised the stakes before a crucial meeting in Washington with the US president, Donald Trump this week; insisting the Ukraine must be “at the heart of any negotiations” on a peace deal with Russia.
The prime minister made the remarks – which run directly contrary to comments by the US president last week – in a phone call on Saturday with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which he also said that “safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty was essential to deter future aggression from Russia”.
After a week of extraordinary anti-Zelenskyy and pro-Russian rhetoric from Trump and his team, the US president issued another dismissive assault on Zelenskyy’s leadership and relevance to a peace deal on Friday, saying: “I don’t think he’s very important to be at meetings, to be honest with you.
As well as dismissing the democratically elected Zelenskyy as a dictator, the White House has been pressuring Ukraine’s president to sign a $500bn minerals deal in which he would give the US half of his country’s mineral resources. The Trump administration says this is “payback” for earlier US military assistance. Zelenskyy has so far refused to sign, arguing that the agreement lacks clear US security guarantees.
Ukrainian officials are also scrambling to find alternatives to Elon Musk’s Starlink communication service in the event that Trump’s threat to have serviced pulled from Ukraine is carried out.
Ukraine’s armed forces depend on the system to provide real-time video drone footage of the battlefield and to conduct accurate strikes against Russian targets. The Russian military uses Starlink too. Ukrainian commanders are now contemplating a nightmare scenario, in which Musk’s SpaceX company switches off Ukrainian access while continuing to offer it to the Russians – with the White House in effect helping Moscow to win the war.
A senior Ukrainian official said his country’s armed forces need American satellite intelligence data. If the US threat to turn off Starlink was blackmail, he replied: “Yes. If it happens, it’s going to be pretty bad. Of that we can be sure.” Frontline troops used the internet system continuously and it was fitted on advanced naval drones used to sink Russian ships in the Black Sea, he noted.
Speaking on Friday (02-21) , Trump also rolled-back on some of his earlier comments, which included a false claim that Zelenskyy was deeply unpopular, with a “4%” rating. Trump told Fox News that Russia did invade Ukraine but said Zelenskyy and the then US president Joe Biden should have averted it. “They shouldn’t have let him [Putin] attack,” he declared.
Trump’s aggressive remarks have consolidated support for Zelenskyy among Ukrainians, with 63% now approving of him, according to the latest opinion poll before the third anniversary on Monday of Russia’s full-scale invasion or Ukraine, Trump earlier this week told the world Ukraine had started the war with Russia.
The push to work with Russia signaled Trump’s desire to reset ties with Putin’s government that were ruptured over Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, continued to deteriorate over a series of cyber-attacks and overseas assassinations and went into deep freeze with the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Earlier this month, newly appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told European allies that the US will keep sanctions on Russia in place at least until a deal to end the Ukraine conflict is reached, even as his boss, President Donald Trump, said he’ll probably meet Vladimir Putin to discuss a settlement before the end of February.
Trump accuses Ukraine of a starting the war with Russia, ignoring the reality of Russia’s land invasion of Ukraine.
In a Truth Social (Feb 19th) post, Donald Trump wrote Ukraine’s Zelenskyy “better move fast” or he won’t have a country left. It was page right out the Kremlin’s playbook and supported by Trump’s own alternative-reality view of the world based on lies and delusional views of world history.
Russia most recently invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine marked a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which had begun in 2014. In the early hours of that day, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” against Ukraine, effectively declaring war. Within minutes of Putin’s speech, missiles and airstrikes hit targets across Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, followed by a large ground invasion along multiple fronts .
Trump hubris has no limits
In a Truth Social (Feb 19th) post, Donald Trump further wrote… A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left. In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only “TRUMP,” and the Trump Administration, can do.
Hubrisis a personality quality characterized by extreme or excessive pride, dangerous overconfidence, and complacency, often synonymous with arrogance. It can involve overestimating one’s own abilities or importance and ignoring advice or warnings, frequently leading to negative consequences or a downfall …
What Price for Peace will Ukraine be forced to Pay:
Trump’s Ukraine Plans Mean a $3 Trillion Bill for European Allies
Whatever the US president decides is his goal for Ukraine, one thing is clear: Europe isn’t ready to shoulder its huge share of the burden.
“The US administration is ready to hand Russia a win in its brutal war against Ukraine. That’s the only conclusion we can make,” the Kiev Independent paper said in a blunt editorial. The words and acts of Trump and his team go “beyond appeasement” …
This year’s Munich security conference exposed the chasm in core values separating the Trump administration from most Europeans and sparked deep alarm at US efforts to control the Ukraine peace process and exclude European governments from it.
Through JD Vance, vice-president, the US has “declared ideological war on Europe”,wrote Sylvie Kauffmann for the French title. If Vladimir Putin turned on the US in a famous 2007 speech at the conference, in 2025 it was the US that turned on Europe.
The US administration had done nothing less than “offer what may be a preview under Mr Trump of a redefinition of a transatlantic relationship built on postwar bonds of stability between allied governments”, the New York Times reported.
Now, top Trump officials had made one thing clear: “Putin has found an American administration that might help him realize his dream”. The comments raised fears the US may now “align with Russia and either assail Europe or abandon it altogether”. Such a shift, the paper said, would amount to “a previously unthinkable victory far more momentous for [Putin] than any objectives in Ukraine”.
— On the War Front
Russia said it was battling a new Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, as Kyiv offered a humanitarian corridor for civilians in the Russian region it has invaded and partly occupied, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, admitted the situation there was “very difficult” as he met with regional governors.
The Russia’s defense ministry said Ukraine deployed two mechanised battalions, tanks and armoured vehicles about 10 kilometres (six miles) from the border to the south-east of the Ukrainian-controlled town of Sudzha.
Ukraine said on Thursday it had received a first batch of French Mirage 2000 fighter jets as well as F-16 fighters from the Netherlands. The numbers are classified but the Mirages are thought to number around six, while overall the Netherlands has promised to deliver Ukraine a total of 24 F-16s, in addition to the jets it supplies to a training centre for Ukrainian pilots and crew in Romania. French officials said the Mirages, originally conceived for air-to-air dogfights, had been adapted to enable air-to-ground strikes.
Ukrainian forces struck an airfield in southern Russia that was being used to launch Shahed drones, Ukraine’s general staff said on Thursday. The night-time attack on the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield in Russia’s Krasnodar region started a fire, the general staff wrote on Facebook. Videos that were claimed to show the fire were posted online. It was not possible to independently verify the claims.
Jan. 2025
North Korea sent its best troops to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine. But after months of suffering severe losses, they have been taken off the front line.
The North Korean troops, sent to bolster Russian forces trying to push back a Ukrainian offensive inside Russia’s borders, have not been seen at the front for about two weeks, the officials said after requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive military and intelligence matters.
The arrival of around 11,000 North Korean troops in Russia in November caused alarm in Ukraine and among its allies in the West, who feared their deployment signaled a significant escalation in the nearly three-year-old war. But in just three months, the North Korean ranks have diminished by half, according to Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander.
Ukrainian troops who have fought against the North Koreans have described them as fierce warriors. But disorganization in their ranks and a lack of cohesion with Russian units have quickly driven up casualties, a Ukrainian official said. Since arriving on the battlefield, the North Korean soldiers have been left to fend for themselves, advancing with few armored vehicles and rarely pausing to regroup or fall back, according to Ukrainian officials and frontline troops.
reported earlier …
Ukraine’s capture of two North Korean soldiers on the battlefield has provided a rare glimpse into their role and Pyongyang’s participation in the Russian invasion, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a January 12 news conference.
The two soldiers were taken prisoner in Kursk oblast, the scene of intense fighting since Ukraine launched a cross-border raid five months ago. Video showed special forces soldiers carrying one of the wounded North Koreans across a snowy forest.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine would give journalists access to the pair, so the world “can learn the truth about what is happening”.
The prisoners have been transported to Kyiv and given appropriate “medical treatment” for their injuries, Zelenskyy said. He praised the paratroopers and tactical group that retrieved them, saying: “This was not an easy task”.
Russian forces and North Korean military personnel had previously executed their wounded in order to “erase” any trace of Pyongyang’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine, he claimed.
Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency is questioning the soldiers, who were given fake Russian names and military documents. The pair speak no foreign languages. South Korea’s NIS intelligence service has been assisting, the SBU said.
The soldiers are the first captive North Koreans to survive. They represent a PR opportunity for Kyiv, during a precarious moment for Ukraine as Donald Trump returns to the White House.
Zelenskyy is keen to emphasise that Ukraine is fighting an unprecedented coalition of malign autocratic states. One is North Korea, which has supplied Moscow with short-range ballistic missiles, artillery shells and – since last November – about 10,000 elite troops.
Russia has also deepened its cooperation with Iran. Tehran provides kamikaze drones used in nightly attacks against Ukrainian towns and cities. China does not contribute directly military aid but is a key diplomatic ally and delivers micro-electronic components used extensively in Russian weapons systems.
Germany’s Expectations
On Sunday, Germany’s chancellor said it was “no bad news” that Trump hoped to arrange a meeting with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, in an effort, according to the incoming US president, to “get that war over with”. However, Olaf Scholz stressed that Ukraine’s sovereignty should not be called into question.
Kyiv has rejected any deal that forces it to cede territory to Russia.
Germany is the second largest contributor to Ukraine’s war effort after the US, would continue to support Ukraine, he said, “but at the same time the killing has to stop at some point.”
December 2024 – Year End Report
Readiness to support Ukraine “until it wins” has fallen sharply across western Europe at a critical time for the country, a survey has suggested.
December polling by YouGov in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK found support for an alternative resolution to the conflict – a negotiated end to the fighting, even if that left Russia in control of parts of Ukraine – is now the preferred option.
December polling by YouGov in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and the UK found public desire to stand by Ukraine until victory – even if that meant prolonging the war – had slumped in all seven countries over the past 12 months.
Support for an alternative resolution to the conflict – a negotiated end to the fighting, even if that left Russia in control of parts of Ukraine – had increased in every country, the survey found, and was the preferred option in four of them.
There was some unhappiness at the idea of an imposed settlement that would involve Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, but also widespread belief that the new US president would abandon Ukraine after his inauguration on 20 January.
The data comes almost three years after Putin’s full-scale invasion and at a critical moment for Ukraine. This year Russia has been advancing at its fastest rate since spring 2022, when its columns made an unsuccessful attempt to seize Kyiv.
Russian troops have overrun several towns and cities in the eastern Donbas region, with Ukraine’s armed forces struggling to defend urban settlements in the face of a lack of frontline troops and Russia’s continuing military superiority.
Kyiv concedes that the Kremlin’s tactics have been effective, including deployment of aviation to target defensive positions with glide bombs, then using artillery barrages and small groups of infantry. Russia has also been adept at identifying weaker Ukrainian brigades.
Trump has boasted, without substance or details, that he can end the war “in 24 hours”. Trump’s unconfirmed Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, is expected to travel to European capitals in early January, before the Trump presidency officially begins.
The bottom line: Analysts have expressed doubts the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, will enter talks on terms that are in any way acceptable to Kyiv.
November
President Zelenskyy comments about Russian-held territory ‘a major concession’, says former UK ambassador to Russia
Former UK Ambassador to Russia Sir Tony Brenton has said Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is “playing a very sophisticated game” in calling for Ukrainian-controlled territories to come under the Nato umbrella.
“He knows that [Donald] Trump is about to descend on him and on Russia”, Brenton said. “He is already arranging to have something to offer Trump on Trump’s mission to bring the war to an end.
“What he is suggesting in many ways is bringing us much closer to the obvious target area which is a freeze in the fighting where the lines actually currently are and then an eventual negotiation about who retains which bit of territory and then security guarantees for Ukraine in the course of that ceasefire.”
But he added that Zelenskyy had made “quite a major concession“ in stating he is prepared to see a ceasefire and then negotiate the return of Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine over the long term.
“Putin will see this as a concession by Zelenskyy”, Brenton said. “He will say to himself ‘ah, they are feeling weak, I can press for more’. That is a danger as we go into this.”
—
Russia behind ‘staggeringly reckless’ sabotage in Europe, says head of UK’s MI6
Russia is waging a “staggeringly reckless campaign” of sabotage in Europe while also stepping up its nuclear sabre-rattling to scare other countries off from backing Ukraine, the head of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service known as MI6, said on Friday.
Richard Moore said in a speech in Paris on Friday that were Vladimir Putin to succeed in reducing Ukraine to a vassal state, he would not stop there, reports Reuters. “Our security – British, French, European and transatlantic- will be jeopardized,” he said, adding:
We have recently uncovered a staggeringly reckless campaign of Russian sabotage in Europe, even as Putin and his acolytes resort to nuclear sabre-rattling to sow fear about the consequences of aiding Ukraine.”
He said the cost of supporting Ukraine was well known, but added:
The cost of not doing so would be infinitely higher. If Putin succeeds China would weigh the implications, North Korea would be emboldened and Iran would become still more dangerous.”
Reuters reports that Moore’s speech seemed aimed at rallying wavering European allies and any sceptics in the incoming US administration of Donald Trump about the importance of Ukraine. He joins other western intelligence officials in warning about increasing Russian sabotage actions.
Nato and western intelligence services have said that Russia is behind a growing number of hostile activities across the Euro-Atlantic area, ranging from repeated cyber-attacks to Moscow-linked arson – all of which Russia denies.
The UK’s domestic spy chief said last month that Russia’s GRU military intelligence service was seeking to cause “mayhem” across the UK and Europe. And sources familiar with US intelligence told Reuters this week that Russia was likely to expand its campaign of sabotage against European targets to increase pressure on the west over its support for Kyiv.
— earlier n November
The Kremlin has said it is preparing retaliatory measures after Ukraine twice fired US-made Atacms missiles into Russia in the last three days.
Moscow said both strikes targeted air defence positions in the Kursk region and claimed on both occasions either one or two missiles reached their targets, while most were shot down.
Nato secretary general Mark Rutte has underscored the need “to go further to change the trajectory of the conflict” in Ukraine.
Stopping over in Athens as he conducted his first regional tour of the eastern Mediterranean, the Nato leader said it was vital alliance members delivered on commitments made at Nato’s July Summit in the US.
“Our support for Ukraine has kept them in the fight, but we need to go further to change the trajectory of the conflict,” he said before holding a working lunch with the Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. “We need to provide critical air defences and deliver on the commitments made at the Nato summit in Washington. The new command, the Nato command to coordinate security assistance and training [NSATU], the financial pledge of 40 billion euros in 2024, and further measures to bring Ukraine closer to Nato.”
UPDATE – Vladimir Putin is reported to be open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Donald Trump, but has already ruled out making any major territorial withdrawal concessions, while insisting Kyiv abandon all ambitions to join NATO, sources close to Putin told Reuters (11-20-24).
Putin’s idea for a ceasefire and eventual settlement of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine appears to have only one solution in his world view: Ukraine surrenders to Russia. President-elect Trump has already publicly indicated he support any solution proposed by Putin, so long as it results in an end the to conflict and US withdrawal of support for Ukraine.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine eclipse its 1,000th day of war
Ukraine took advantage of its newly granted long-range missile capabilities to strike a military base on Russian territory. Moscow, which has warned against such action, stepped up its threat of a nuclear response to conventional attacks.
Under the new approach, Ukraine can use these weapons against targets that relate to its operations in the Kursk region, a chunk of Russian territory that it occupied over the summer and is fighting to hold onto in the face of assaults by Russian and North Korean forces. The US reversal is a response to North Korea’s decision to send more than 10,000 troops to Kursk as part of a deepening alliance with Moscow, as well as stepped-up Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
The twin developments early on Tuesday rattled investors who have long tuned out of the war’s daily grind, prompting a rush into haven assets.
In reality, the recent arrival of North Korean troops to support Russian forces on the battlefield had already upped the ante.
The prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January and his pledge to end the war in short order has created a new sense of urgency for Ukraine and its allies.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been pleading for more weapons to strengthen his hand, the Biden administration is sending Kyiv as much aid as possible before they leave office, and Germany’s Olaf Scholz called Putin last week to sound him out on talks. The Russian leader showed no interest in compromise, Scholz reported.
“The current situation offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate,” Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center said. Such a move would allow both Putin and Trump to blame Joe Biden for the spiraling conflict and serve as a premise for direct talks. “This marks an extraordinarily dangerous juncture,”she added, since Putin may be trying to convince western leaders they have to choose between a nuclear conflict or a settlement on Russia’s terms.
Ukraine’s air force has said today (11-21-24) that Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at the city of Dnipro, which if confirmed would be the first time the long-range weapon has been used in any armed conflict.
Russia responds to Ukraine missile attack with an over-the-top reply. Russian ICBMs, designed to carry nuclear warheads, have ranges of more than 6,200 miles, enough to reach the US east coast from Astrakhan, and are capable of being nuclear armed, suggesting that if the use of the weapon is confirmed, it was a signal from Moscow.
The claim was not immediately accepted by others, however. ABC News reported, citing western officials, that this was an exaggeration and that the weapon was in fact a shorter-range ballistic missile, similar to the types used repeatedly by Russia against Ukraine during the war.
Depending on whom you ask, the addition of North Korean troops to booster Russian forces now needed to make a significant breakthrough in Ukraine may prove, like so many dead Russians on the battlefield, to be simple cannon fodder, destined for repatriation in body bags.
After weeks of speculation, Nato and the Pentagon have confirmed that about 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, with most massing near Ukraine’s border in Kursk, where the Kremlin’s forces have struggled to repel a Ukrainian incursion.
The North Koreans came under Ukrainian artillery fire during “small-scale” fighting on Tuesday, said Ukraine’s defence minister, Rustem Umerov, in the first official confirmation of contact between the two forces.
It is too early to say how the Russian-North Korean “blood alliance” will change the dynamics of the conflict. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said Russia had been training them to use artillery, drones and “basic infantry operations, including trench clearing, indicating that they fully intend to use these forces in frontline operations”.
But not one of the young men drafted from Kim Jong-un’s regular army of approximately 1 million – the “strongest in the world”, according to Kim – has seen combat. And they will be fighting on unfamiliar territory, with new weapons and in uniforms bearing the flag of a country – Russia – they know little about.
While their arrival relieves pressure on Russia to draft more of its own citizens, with the US estimating that more than 500,000 Russians have been killed or wounded since the war started in February 2022 – experts believe the military dividends for the Kremlin will be limited.
Ukraine believes 11,000 North Korean troops have reached the Kursk border region in Russia, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday. That was echoed by the US as Pentagon spokesman Maj Gen Pat Ryder said: “We think that the total number of DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] forces in Russia … could be closer to around 11 to 12,000,” with “at least 10,000 right now in the Kursk oblast”.
Andriy Sybiga, Zelenskyy’s Ukraine’s foreign minister, said: “We call on Europe to realize that North Korean troops are now waging an aggressive war in Europe against a sovereign European state. This proves once again that while the West is afraid of and hesitates, Russia is acting and going for escalation.”
October
North Korean troops join Russia’s war in Ukraine: what we know so far
In a statement on its website, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) said Russian navy ships have already transferred 1,500 North Korean special operation forces to the port city of Vladivostok (between 8 and 13 October) now now undergoing training.
Earlier this week, the Kyiv Post quoted Ukrainian military sources as saying that as many as 3,000 North Korean troops were being supplied with small arms and ammunition in advance of their deployment in “high-risk operations aimed at reducing the strain on Russian forces”. Russian navy ships have already reportedly transferred 1,500 forces to Vladivostok, where they are being trained for the war against Ukraine.
“The North Korean soldiers … are expected to be deployed to the frontlines as soon as they complete their adaptation training,” the agency said, adding that more North Korean troops were expected to be sent to Russia soon.
NIS said North Korean soldiers were given Russian military uniforms and Russian-made weapons and were issued with fake ID cards of residents of Yakutia and Buryatia, two regions in Siberia. “It appears that they disguised themselves as Russian soldiers to hide the fact that they were deployed to the battlefield,” the agency said.
North Korea is known to have supplied ammunition and missiles to help Russia prosecute its war against Ukraine, but recent reports claim the secretive state is also sending large numbers of troops. The reports were confirmed this week by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said ties between Moscow and Pyongyang were entering a new and even more dangerous phase.
Vladimir Putin, and his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong-un, signed a secret “mutual aid agreement” in June that calls for the transfer of ammunition and missiles – and now personnel.
Last week,the New York Times reported that September was the “bloodiest” month yet for Russian troops fighting in the war, with 115,000 Russians killed since the start of the war and 500,000 wounded. The counterbalance to Russia’s manpower loses appears to come in the form of North Korean troops joining the fight fighting alongside Russians in the fight against Ukrainian defenders. The transfer of large numbers of North Korean troops comes amid reports in the Ukrainian media that Putin is struggling to mobilise more Russians amid growing unease at home about the length and cost of the war, both financially and in terms of casualties.
NIS said North Korean soldiers were given Russian military uniforms and Russian-made weapons and were issued with fake ID cards of residents of Yakutia and Buryatia, two regions in Siberia. Intelligence reports further indicate that several thousand North Korean soldiers were being trained in Russia and could be deployed on the frontline before the end of the year. That manpower additions also include dozens of North Korean technicians sent to Ukraine to assist in the deployment of N Korean weapons supplied to Russia including the KN-23 ballistic missile with a range over 400 miles.
September
September Was Deadly Month for Russian Troops in Ukraine, U.S. Says
More than 600,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the war began in 2022.
It is a style of warfare that Russians have likened to being put into a meat grinder, with commanding officers seemingly willing to send many thousands of infantry soldiers to die. “It’s kind of the Russian way of war in that they continue to throw mass into the problem,” a senior U.S. military official said this week, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal assessments, in announcing the Pentagon’s latest Russian casualty estimate. “And I think we’ll continue to also see high losses on the Ukrainian side.”
Despite its losses, Russia is recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers a month — roughly as many as are exiting the battlefield, U.S. officials said. That has allowed its army to keep sending wave after wave of troops at Ukrainian defenses, hoping to overwhelm them and break through the trench lines. Russia’s use of infantry in waves of small unit attacks reflects one of its advantages in the war: Its population, roughly 146 million, is three times as large as Ukraine’s, giving it a larger pool of potential recruits.
Moscow’s troops have begun counterattacking in the area, reclaiming a few villages and threatening Ukraine’s ability to hold onto the territory it has seized. At the same time, Russian soldiers in Ukraine have continued advancing on other parts of the front there, which Kyiv had hoped to stabilize by prompting a diversion of Russian units back home to defend Kursk.
Ukraine and Russia are also engaged in air assaults, targeting each other’s military bases and energy infrastructure as each side tries to degrade the other’s capacity to sustain the war effort. In addition, Russia continues to regularly hit civilian areas in devastating attacks that cause frequent casualties.
—
Vladimir Putin has said that a western move to let Kyiv use longer-range weapons against targets inside Russia would mean Nato would be “at war” with Moscow.
Putin spoke as US and UK top diplomats discussed easing rules on firing western weapons into Russia, which Kyiv has been pressing for, more than two and a half years into Moscow’s offensive.
“This would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict,” Putin told a state television reporter.
“It would mean that Nato countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia,” he added. “If that’s the case, then taking into account the change of nature of the conflict, we will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face.”
Clearing Kyiv to strike deep into Russia “is a decision on whether Nato countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not”.
Putin’s comments came a day after the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, gave his strongest hint yet that the White House is about to lift its restrictions on Ukraine using long-range weapons supplied by the west on key military targets inside Russia.
Speaking in Kyiv alongside the UK foreign secretary, David Lammy, Blinken said the US had “from day one” been willing to adapt its policy as the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine changed. “We will continue to do this,” he emphasised.
President Biden appears on the verge of clearing the way for Ukraine to launch long-range Western weapons deep inside Russian territory, as long as it doesn’t use arms provided by the United States, European officials say.
The issue, which has long been debated in the White House, is coming to a head on Friday with the first visit to Washington by Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer.
Britain has already signaled to the United States that it is eager to let Ukraine use its “Storm Shadow” long-range missiles to strike at Russian military targets far from the Ukrainian border. But it wants explicit permission from Mr. Biden in order to demonstrate a coordinated strategy with the United States and France, which makes a similar missile. American officials say Mr. Biden has not made a decision, but will hear from Mr. Starmer on Friday.
If the president approves, the move could help Ukraine hold the line after it seizes Russian territory, as it did during its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. But Mr. Biden has hesitated to allow Ukraine to use American weapons in the same way, particularly after warnings from American intelligence agencies that Russia could respond by aiding Iran in targeting American forces in the Middle East.
Russia to UN on long-range missile use: ‘Nato will be a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power’
Russia’s UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the UN security council on Friday that if western countries allow Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes in Russia then Nato countries would be “conducting direct war with Russia.”
U.S. Position
On Thursday, White House officials insisted there was no imminent decision on the use of the American-made surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems — known as ATACMS. But Mr. Biden himself has signaled that a loosening of restrictions is coming. He was asked on Tuesday whether he was ready to grant the increasingly insistent requests from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
“We are working that out right now,” he said.
If Mr. Biden permits the British and French to go ahead, and if he follows in coming weeks by allowing the use of the ATACMS, it could well be his final acceleration of the military aid to Ukraine.
Quietly, Republican leaders in the Senate, especially Mitch McConnell, the minority leader, have been urging an aggressive response — a sharp split with former President Donald J. Trump, who refused in Tuesday night’s presidential debate to declare that he wants Ukraine to win, or to say that Russia should get out of the 20 percent or so of Ukraine it has taken since war began.
—
Ukraineaccused Russia on Thursday (9-12-24) of using strategic bombers to strike a civilian grain vessel in Black Sea waters near Nato member Romania, escalating tensions between Moscow and the military alliance. It was the first time a missile has struck a civilian vessel transporting grains at sea since the start of Moscow’s invasion in February 2022.
Some vessels have been damaged during Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports where they were moored. Zelenskiy said the vessel carrying Ukrainian grain to Egypt was hit overnight by a Russian missile just after it left Ukrainian territorial waters. There were no casualties, he said. Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha said the strike was “a brazen attack on freedom of navigation and global food security”.
Ukraine’s navy said Russian Tupolev Tu-22 bombers had fired a number of cruise missiles at the vessel at 11.02pm local time on Wednesday.
August
On the Ground and in the Air …
A Ukrainian F-16 advanced fighter jet, recently supplied by NATO countries, was destroyed this week while defending against a sweeping Russian aerial assault and the pilot was killed, Ukraine’s military said on Thursday.
A Western official said the advanced fighter crashed while defending against a Russian aerial assault. It was not clear how it was destroyed, but the loss is a blow to Ukraine, given the planes’ prominence.
The plane was lost after Ukraine scrambled its air defenses while trying to intercept more than 200 missiles and drones fired by Russia on Monday, in what President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called one of the largest attacks of its kind since the war began 30 months ago. The loss is a blow to the government in Kyiv, partly because only about half a dozen of the planes have been delivered and only a few pilots have been trained to fly them.
Ukraine Says It Struck at 2 Oil Depots Inside Russia – August 29th:
Kyiv is pressing its drone campaign while lobbying allies for permission to use weapons supplied by NATO countries for strikes deep inside Russia.
Ukraine’s military said on Thursday that it had struck two more Russian oil depots, pressing ahead with a campaign of attacks against a sector vital to Moscow’s war effort.
The strikes coincided with accelerated lobbying by Ukraine’s political leaders for permission to use weapons supplied by allies in NATO to strike targets deep inside Russia, as Kyiv seeks to bring the pain and hardship of war home to Russia.
The Ukrainian military said it launched an attack that caused a fire on Wednesday at the Atlas oil depot in the Rostov region, which borders eastern Ukraine.
Russia Pounds Ukraine With ‘One of the Largest Strikes’ of the War – August 26th:
President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned a Russian assault of more than 200 missiles and dronesthat ranged from Kyiv to Odesa to Ukraine’s West. Energy infrastructure was again a target.
Moscow launched more than 200 missiles and drones across a wide swath of Ukraine on Monday, damaging energy facilities and sending residents of Kyiv into basements and subways to seek shelter. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the assault as “one of the largest strikes” of the 30-month-old war.
The strikes occurred at a volatile time in the conflict, coming against the backdrop of Ukraine’s cross-border incursion into southern Russia — the first invasion on Russian soil since World War II. On Monday, Ukraine’s forces continued to try to advance in the region.
—
More than two weeks into its surprise offensive in western Russia, Ukraine’s advance has slowed, with its troops making only marginal gains around territory they already control.
But more than 200 miles to the southeast, another offensive is gaining momentum: Russia’s drive toward Pokrovsk, a stronghold in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. In recent days, Moscow’s troops have seized at least three settlements and reached the outskirts of a town along a railroad to Pokrovsk, a logistics hub for the Ukrainian Army in the region.
The Russian advance has put the Ukrainians in the precarious position of defending one critical front while attempting to press forward on another, all with limited troop numbers and weaponry.
—
Ukraine Steps Up Strikes Into Russia as Moscow Pushes Ahead in the East.
US president Biden pledges $125m in new military aid for Kyiv, while PM Narendra Modi (India) tells President Zelenskiy he is ready to help secure peace deal. The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, said on social media the aid package was worth $125m. It included air-defence missiles, counter-drone equipment, anti-armour missiles and ammunition, the White House said. Austin also spoke on Friday with his Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerovm. Zelenskiy said after the call: “Ukraine critically needs the supply of weapons from the announced packages, particularly additional air defence systems for the reliable protection of cities, communities and critical infrastructure.”
—
Peace Envoy
India’s Narendra Modi arrived in Kyiv on Friday on a closely watched visit, the first by an Indian prime minister since Ukraine gained independence in 1991. He told Zelenskiy he was “personally” ready to play a role “as a friend” to bring peace to Ukraine. “The road to resolution can only be found through dialogue and diplomacy,” Modi said. “And we should move in that direction without wasting any time. Both sides should sit together to find a way out of this crisis.” Zelenskiy said “history was made” and that “India supports Ukraine’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity”. An adviser in the Ukrainian president’s office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said Modi’s visit to Kyiv was significant because Delhi “really has a certain influence” over Moscow.
Earlier Yesterday (8-23-24) Ukraine struck a port across from Crimea and damaged a cargo ferry. But Kyiv’s forces continued to struggle in eastern areas under a relentless Russian assault.
—
Gains on the ground
Ukrainian forces isolated a large group of Russian soldiers caught between a river in Russia’s Kursk Province and the Ukrainian border, Kyiv has launched a series of strikes at airfields, ports and oil depots in other regions of Russia aimed at degrading the Kremlin’s war effort.
A Ukrainian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Kavkaz hit a large cargo ferry laden with fuel on Thursday, triggering a towering blaze at the facility, according to Russian and Ukrainian officials as well as video posted to social media channels. Kavkaz is one of the country’s largest passenger ports and the main ferry terminal connecting Russia with Crimea.
“This ferry is one of the key links in the Russian military logistics chain, primarily for supplying the occupying forces with fuel and lubricants, but it also transported weapons,” a Ukrainian Navy spokesman, Dmytro Pletenchuk, said in a statement.
The strike on the port is the latest in Ukraine’s effort to step up its attacks inside Russia as the two countries pound each other with a series of punches and counterpunches, using both direct assaults and more precision-guided drone and artillery attacks.
As Russia presses on in eastern Ukraine, threatening to take a strategic city, Ukraine holds more than 490 square miles in southern Russia — an area about the size of Los Angeles — and is launching attacks into other areas of Russia to bring the fight to its adversary.
—
Ukraine invades Russia – Kursk region penetration – says it has seized 1,000 sq km of Russia
Ukraine has had success destroying Russian warplanes with drone attacks on airfields deep inside Russian territory, but is barred by its Western partners from using Western weapons, such as long-range missiles, to do so.
In addition to Savasleyka, the official said there were attacks on airfields in Voronezh, Borisoglebsk and Kursk, targeting bases for warplanes that fire the heavy glide bombs, locally known as KABs, that have devastated Ukrainian defenses over the past year.
Earlier, Ukraine pounded two Russian regions with drones as its ground forces tried to smash through defensive lines in a bid to carve out even more territory in its biggest attack on Russian territory since the war began. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the attack was aimed at improving Kyiv’s negotiating position. Ukraine explains the incursion into Russia as …defensive. Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said on Monday that Russia had used the Kursk region to launch many strikes against his country.
Separately, Ukraine’s military says it used high-precision US glide bombs to strike Russia’s Kursk region and that is has recaptured some territory in the eastern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv that has been under a Russian offensive since spring. Ukraine’s air force commander, Lt Gen Mykola Oleschuk, issued a video purporting to show a Russian platoon base being hit in Kursk. He said the attack with US-supplied GBU-39 bombs resulted in Russian casualties and the destruction of equipment. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s 3rd separate assault brigade said its forces advanced nearly 2 sq km (about three-quarters of a square mile) in the Kharkiv region.
Kursk Analysis
Ukraine’s incursion into a sliver of Russia is likely to make it harder for Moscow to mount a major renewed offensive in Ukraine’s east and is the kind of surprise operation that could eventually impose real costs on the Kremlin, according to U.S. officials.
The Ukrainian strike, and its continued success, could ultimately have strategic significance, though U.S. officials caution that they will need to see how it plays out to draw firmer conclusions. It could also help rebuild sagging morale among Ukraine’s troops and war-weary population, the officials said.
The incursion, into the Kursk region of Russia, stands in stark contrast to Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in southern Ukraine last summer. This offensive was developed in secret, devised to divert Russian troops away from the front lines in Ukraine and seize territory to use as a bargaining chip.
Facing a Ukrainian Incursion, Putin Directs His Rage at the West
Russian forces are pummeling Ukrainian positions along the front lines, Ukrainian military officials said, as attacks on Russian soil by Ukraine continue.
The analysis described the Russian force as “hastily assembled” and “ill-prepared” for a coordinated response.
Ukrainian troops along the eastern front line said they were still feeling pressure from the Russians.
“Our guys do not feel any relief,” said Artem Dzhepko, a press officer with Ukraine’s National Police Brigade, which is fighting near the strategically important town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces there were still using as many as 10 aerial bombs a day, he said.
On Facebook, Ukraine’s military reported late Sunday that the Russian Army had tried four times to break through defenses along the front line at Toretsk, near the towns of Zalizne, Druzhba and Niu York. Two attacks were repelled; two were ongoing.
On Monday morning, the attacks near Toretsk continued, said Yevhen Strokan, a senior lieutenant and commander of a combat drone platoon in the 206th Territorial Defense Battalion.
“I don’t feel a decrease in intensity,” Mr. Strokan said. “Everything is being assaulted in the same way.”
The Kursk offensive, he said, might need more time to draw Russian troops away.
While Russian civilians have previously been killed by Ukrainian shelling near the border, this is the first time that Ukrainian forces have seized a foothold in Russian territory. According to reliable sources, 21,000 people had fled the border area, and that Russian authorities were working to evacuate another 59,000.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia lashed out at the West over Ukraine’s weeklong incursion into Russian territory, in a tense televised meeting with his top officials on Monday, a sign of how the surprise attack has unsettled the Kremlin.
Ukraine’s move has had two main goals, analysts said: to draw Russian forces from the front lines in eastern Ukraine and to seize territory that could serve as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations.
Mr. Putin, speaking with security chiefs and regional governors at his residence outside Moscow, insisted that the attack would not soften his negotiating position.
Ukraine ambushes Russian convoy in Kursk as Kremlin declares emergency
Ukrainian forces staged an overnight ambush on a Russian convoy 25 miles inside the international border in Russia’s Kursk province, as the Kremlin declared a federal emergency and said it was transferring extra forces to try to snuff out a four-day incursion that has badly damaged its credibility.
Commentators said the attack, reminiscent of Ukrainian attacks on Russian troops besieging Kyiv in the first weeks of the war, demonstrated an effective hit-and-run strategy, but the incursion appeared likely to draw an escalating response from the Kremlin, and its overall outcome remains profoundly uncertain. Russia’s defence ministry said at lunchtime that it was transferring military reserves to the Kursk region, according to the Interfax news agency, including Grad rockets, artillery and tanks.
Russia has declared a state of emergency in Kursk and local officials told the Tass news agency that 3,000 civilians had been evacuated following an attack that has clearly caught Moscow off guard.
Ukrainian forces, numbering several hundred according to Russia, burst across the border on the morning of Tuesday, reaching Sudzha on the first day, and since then appear to have pushed up roads to the north-west and north of the town.
July
10 US-NATO F-16 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine, designed to carry advanced US weapons supporting Ukraine’s air war
The US will arm F-16 fighter jets supplied by other allies to Ukraine with advanced American weapons including air-to-ground missiles, extended range guided bomb packs and air-to-air missiles including the AMRAAM and AIM-9X.
The first of dozens of donated F-16s are due in Ukraine this summer, flown by Ukrainian pilots trained in European countries and the US.
Ukraine energy situation Improving
Ukraine’s energy situation is improving, officials have said, as it contends with waves of Russian attacks targeting power stations. State-run electricity operator Ukrenergo said 30 July was the first day of the month with no power cuts. “If there is no more shelling, it will be possible to manage with minimal restrictions or no power outages at all in the next three months,” said Yuriy Boyko, an adviser to Shmygal who sits on Ukrenergo’s supervisory board. Ukraine has been importing electricity from the EU to fill the gap in generation.
Russian oil depot
The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday it had successfully hit a Russian oil depot in the Vozy settlement of the Kursk region. The depot was targeted in a joint operation of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and other forces, said the military general staff. The Kursk region’s acting governor said there had been a missile attack. On Sunday, Ukraine’s military struck the Polevaya oil depot in the Kursk region
June
Ukrainians are having to cope with widespread emergency blackouts as Russia continues to pound critical infrastructure.
In recent months, Moscow has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. On Friday night, energy facilities came under a “massive attack”, Ukraine’s energy ministry said. Several workers were injured as a result of shelling at one of the facilities. “The situation in the energy sector remains difficult,” the ministry said in a statement on Saturday.
Volodomyr Zelenksiy said this month that Russia had damaged or destroyed more than half of Ukraine’s power generation, causing the worst rolling blackouts since the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Ukraine began implementing rolling blackouts on 15 May, disconnecting entire districts of the capital from the power grid to save energy.
June 7, 2024
Ukrainian forces had destroyed Russian missile launchers with a strike in the Belgorod region, about 20 miles into Russia. Ukraine used the US High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS.Officials. The attack came just days after the Biden administration granted permission for Ukraine to fire American weapons into Russia. Kyiv took advantage of its new latitude, striking a military facility over the border using a U.S.-made artillery system, according to a member of Ukraine’s Parliament.
A video from a Russian Telegram channel showed burning Russian military equipment and a swirling plume of gray smoke after a strike last Sunday. The video, which was verified by The New York Times, was recorded just outside of Belgorod, and satellite imagery shows smoke rising from what appears to be destroyed vehicles. At least one of the launchers was in an elevated position at the time of the attack.
Military analysts say the Ukrainians’ new ability to strike in Russia will help slow Moscow’s attacks across the border.
“Now we can hit the Russian troops at the stage of formation, which reduces the probability of preparing new offensives” at other sites on the border, said Mykhailo Samus, director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, a military research organization in Kyiv.
May
Recent decisions by President Biden and others give Ukrainian forces several new options. But they’re still restricted in the use of Western missiles that could strike far inside Russia.
The decision by the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with American-made weapons fulfills a long-held wish by officials in Kyiv that they claimed was essential to level the playing field.
The shift in policy followed declarations from nearly a dozen European governments and Canada that their weapons could be used to fire into Russia.
Freed from those constraints, Ukraine can strike into Russia with SCALP missiles from France and, potentially soon, the identical Storm Shadow missiles supplied by Britain. Although the British foreign minister, David Cameron, said on May 3 that Ukraine should be able to attack Russia with Western weapons, London has not yet given its full permission.
The SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles have a range of about 150 miles and are fired from Ukraine’s aging fleet of Soviet-designed fighter jets.
Several countries — Britain, Germany, Norway and the United States — have given Ukraine ground-based launchers that can fire longer-range missiles. Those systems are known as HIMARS and MLRS launchers, and they can also shoot the American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, which have a range of up to 190 miles.
However, in disclosing the new policy, U.S. officials said their policy would not permit the use of ATACMS or long-range missiles that can strike deep into Russia. Germany also has so far refused to donate its Taurus missile, with a range of 310 miles, in part out of concern that it would be fired deep into Russia and escalate the war. It is now even less likely to do so, Rafael Loss, a weapons expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview on Thursday.
May 16, 2024
Russia’s attack across the border north and north-west of Kharkiv was telegraphed by Moscow, predicted by western intelligence and anticipated by Ukraine. The fact that Russian forces have been able to advance about 4 miles at multiple points in five days raises serious questions about Kyiv’s ability to defend itself.
An intention to create “a sanitary zone” along the border inside Ukraine was signalled by Vladimir Putin in March. A month later Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, highlighted that Kharkiv had an “important role” in such a strategy as the region was reeling from bombing that had knocked out two power stations on 22 March.
At the same time, Moscow’s military had been building up its new Northern Group of forces, estimated by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) at 30,000 strong, in Russia’s Belgorod region. Last week, two days before the dawn assault, Kharkiv’s regional governor said a massing of forces had been spotted.
A warning was also passed, one source added, from UK defence intelligence to Ukraine’s leadership. So when on 5am last Friday, somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers crossed the border at two key points, it might have been expected that the attack would be swiftly repulsed.
By the middle of the week fighting had reached Vovchansk and villages north of Lyptsi, about 20 miles away from Ukraine’s second city, home to 1.3 million people.
May 13, 2024
Military experts say the Russian advance has put Ukraine in a very dangerous spot
In the past three days, Russian troops, backed by fighter jets, artillery and lethal drones, have poured across Ukraine’s northeastern border and seized at least nine villages and settlements, and more square miles per day than at almost any other point in the war, save the very beginning.
In some places, Ukrainian troops are retreating, and Ukrainian commanders are blaming each other for the defeats.
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are fleeing to Kharkiv, the nearest big city. A reception center that hummed with a sense of order and calm on Saturday had transformed into a totally different scene on Sunday, as exhausted people shouted at each other and families with no place to go spilled out onto the grass.
As the sense of panic spreads, especially in Kharkiv, some hard questions loom:
How far will this go?
Is it just a momentary setback for the underdog Ukrainians? Or a turning point?
Military experts say the Russian advance has put Ukraine in a very dangerous spot. Ukrainian troops have been complaining for months about severe shortages of ammunition — exacerbated by the tangles in the U.S. Congress that delayed the delivery of key weapons. And Ukrainian soldiers, by all accounts, are exhausted. More than two years of trying to fight off a country with three times the population to draw from has left Ukraine so depleted and desperate for fresh troops that its lawmakers have voted to mobilize convicts.
In the meantime, Ukraine says it is pushing back against assaults and battling for control of territory as fierce fighting has continued for a second day on the fringes of the Kharkiv region in north-east Ukraine. Moscow said it had captured five villages, while Kyiv said it was pushing back against the attacks and battling for control of the territory.
Russia launched the armoured incursion early on Friday, in an attack that may presage a broader push into the Kharkiv region, or aim to draw away overstretched Ukrainian forces in the east where Moscow’s offensive is focused.
Kyiv rushed in reinforcements to deal with the incursion and Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s eastern command, said on Saturday that Kyiv’s forces had managed to contain Russian troops in the borderlands where it is unclear who has control.
Kyiv has been on the back foot for months as Russian troops have slowly advanced, mainly in the Donetsk region to the south, taking advantage of Ukraine’s shortages of troops and artillery shells.
May 6, 2024
Russia nuclear drills over the West’s deepening role in Ukraine
Russia on Monday threatened to strike British military facilities and said it would hold drills simulating the use of battlefield nuclear weapons amid sharply rising tensions over comments by senior Western officials about possibly deeper involvement in the war in Ukraine.
After summoning the British ambassador to the Foreign Ministry, Moscow warned that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with U.K.-supplied weapons could bring retaliatory strikes on British military facilities and equipment on Ukrainian soil or elsewhere.
It was the first time Russia has publicly announced drills involving tactical nuclear weapons, although its strategic nuclear forces regularly hold exercises. Tactical nuclear weapons include air bombs, warheads for short-range missiles and artillery munitions and are meant for use on a battlefield. They are less powerful than the strategic weapons — massive warheads that arm intercontinental ballistic missiles and are intended to obliterate entire cities.
U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric expressed concern that various parties have been talking about issues regarding nuclear weapons more and more recently.
“Current nuclear risks are at an alarmingly high level,” Dujarric said. “All actions that could lead to miscalculation, escalation with catastrophic consequences, must be avoided.”
French President Emmanuel Macron repeated last week that he doesn’t exclude sending troops to Ukraine, and U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Kyiv’s forces will be able to use British long-range weapons to strike targets inside Russia.
Sweden’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billström said the nuclear exercises “contribute to increasing instability.”
“In the current security situation, Russia’s actions may be considered particularly irresponsible and reckless,” Billström told Swedish news agency TT.
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council that’s chaired by Putin, said in his typically hawkish fashion that the comments by Macron and Cameron risked pushing the nuclear-armed world toward a “global catastrophe.”
April
Ukraine pulls back from three villages in east, Zelenskiy pleads for weapons
Ukraine’s top commander said Kyiv’s outnumbered troops had fallen back to new positions west of three villages on the eastern front where Russia has concentrated significant forces in several locations.
Military communications restored
Ukraine officials said on Monday the Telegram messaging app to collect information about Russia’s war effort after the services was briefly suspended.
Service access was restored to a number of chatbots used by Ukraine’s security agencies to collect information about Russia’s war effort after the services were briefly suspended. The Dubai-based Telegram app founded by Russian-born Pavel Durov blocked a number of bots used by Ukraine to fight back against Russia’s full-scale invasion, Kyiv’s military spy agency GUR said in a statement shortly after midnight.
April 27, 2024
Washington says Kyiv must address critical manpower shortages, shore up its defenses to enable
A long-awaited influx of U.S. weapons will help Ukraine to blunt Russia’s advance in the coming months, Biden administration officials said after Congress passed a major aid package, but an acute troop shortage and Moscow’s firepower advantage mean that Kyiv won’t likely regain major offensive momentum until 2025 at the earliest.
April 24, 2024
The New Long Reach of Ukrainian Missiles
Atacms long-ranges missiles capable of hitting targets 300km away had already arrived in Ukraine this month at the president’s direction, before the US security package was passed by Congress on Wednesday, the state department has said. Vedant Patel, a state department spokesperson, explained that the weapons were part of a March aid package for Ukraine – not the one just approved by Congress and signed by Joe Biden. “We did not announce this at the onset in order to maintain operational security for Ukraine at their request.”
Ukraine has begun using the long-range Atacms, bombing a Russian military airfield in Crimea last week and Russian forces in another occupied area in recent days, two US officials have told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity. One of them said the Biden administration previously warned Russia that if it used long-range ballistic missiles in Ukraine, Washington would provide the same capability to the Ukrainians. Russia has since done so.
Separately, Adm Christopher Grady, vice-chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, told the Associated Press that long-range weapons would help Ukraine take out Russian logistics and troop concentrations behind the frontlines. He explained how the decision to supply them was considered carefully and at length. “I think the time is right, and the boss [President Biden] made the decision the time is right to provide these based on where the fight is right now.”
April 20, 2024
Breaking News: House Passes $60 Billion Ukraine Aid package
The House on Saturday passed a multi-country aid bill in the sum of $95 billion in foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson put his job on the line, with full democratic party support, to advance the long-stalled Ukraine aid package and in defiance of far-right hard-liners within his own party who up until today have successfully delayed and obstructed Ukraine aid designed to rescue the Country’s flagging war effort. Other Country funding for the past four months including passage of strategic and aid-essential three-country funding package are also are part of the funding packages. The bills now go back to Senate for a final vote and approval.
U.S. Military Aid for Ukraine is set to begin re-supplying Ukraine with essential military supplies and amendments, including Patriot air defense missiles, already in Europe awaiting the go-ahead to begin resupply operations. What would $60 billion buy? Lots of air-defense missiles and artillery ammunition, according to the Pentagon.
The $95 billion package for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific region, the bill package includes a provision to transfer frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, and sanctions against Hamas and Iran.
U.S. General Ryder was asked about a nonbinding measure in the House legislation to send Kyiv weapons called ATACMS, which have been the Pentagon’s longest-range ground-launched guided missiles since the late 1980s. The Biden administration agreed to provide a small number of those missiles last year, and Ukrainian forces used them to strike two air bases in Russian-occupied territory in October. Ukraine’s special operations forces said the attack damaged runways and destroyed nine Russian helicopters among other targets.
April 19, 2024
On Friday, the rule for considering the bill — historically a straight party-line vote — passed with more Democratic than Republican support, but it also won a majority of G.O.P. votes, making it clear that despite a pocket of deep resistance from far-right Republicans, there is broad bipartisan backing for the $95.3 billion package. One of the four funding bills provides $60 billion for Ukraine. Most of the money goes to U.S. weapons manufacturers to build back depleted U.S. weapons supplies, and about 20 percent of that goes directly to the country in the form of a loan. The president can cancel Ukraine’s debt, however, after Nov. 15.
The vote was an enormous victory in the long effort to fund Ukraine as it battles Russian aggression, a major priority of President Biden. It was a triumph against the forces of isolationism within the G.O.P. and a major moment of consensus in a Congress that for the past year has been mostly defined by its dysfunction.
But it came only after Speaker Mike Johnson put his job on the line by turning to Democrats in a significant breach of custom in the House, further imperiling his position even as he paved the way for the legislation to be voted on and approved.
On the House floor, Democrats held back their votes until it was clear there was not enough Republican support for the measure to pass without their backing, and then their “yes” votes began pouring in. Ultimately, 165 Democrats voted for the measure, more than the 151 Republicans who supported it. Despite threats to Johnson’s job, the speaker decided to rely on Democrats to muscle through his aid package.
Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) made the call late Thursday night to “do what is necessary” to provide the votes to advance the legislation. It was a significant decision considering that Johnson has slow-walked the aid package and remained noncommittal about a path forward until just this week.
April 18, 2024
Calls to support Ukraine’s defence against Russian air strikes have grown after at least 17people died when three missiles hit the centre of Chernihiv, a city in northern Ukraine near the border with Russia.
The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, on Wednesday urged his fellow EU leaders to follow Germany’s lead and send Ukraine more Patriot air defence systems. Germany on Saturday announced it was sending an additional Patriot battery. “This is immediately useful, we want to encourage others to do the same,” said Scholz as he arrived for an EU summit in Brussels. “Now it is about doing it quickly and not at some point in the future.”
Nato’s chief, Jens Stoltenberg, told member countries that they should further strain their stockpiles to help support Ukraine. “If allies face a choice between meeting Nato capability targets and providing more aid to Ukraine, my message is clear: send more to Ukraine,” he said on Wednesday.
The Republican House Speaker, Mike Johnson, is pushing ahead with his plan to hold votes on four separate foreign aid bills this week, despite two radical right Republicans threat to oust him if he advances a Ukraine funding proposal.
Shortly after noon on Wednesday, the rules committee posted text for three bills that would provide funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The separation of the Senate-passed combined funding package, Johnson created three discreet country funding proposals. Passed in the Republican controlled House, the surviving bills would be forced to return to Senate (once again) for a confirmation vote. This newly added process extra step will add time and political risk in the process to pass an overdue and sorely needed Ukraine military funding package for 2024.
April 16, 2024
Ukraine’s Big Vulnerabilities: Ammunition, Soldiers and Air Defense
The shortages add up to a dire situation for Ukraine in the third year of the war, presenting commanders with near impossible choices on how to deploy limited resources.
Ukraine’s top military commander has issued a bleak assessment of the army’s positions on the eastern front, saying they have “worsened significantly in recent days.”
Russian forces were pushing hard to exploit their growing advantage in manpower and ammunition to break through Ukrainian lines, the commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a statement over the weekend.
“Despite significant losses, the enemy is increasing his efforts by using new units on armored vehicles, thanks to which he periodically achieves tactical gains,” the general said.
At the same time, Ukraine’s energy ministry told millions of civilians to charge their power banks, get their generators out of storage and “be ready for any scenario” as Ukrainian power plants are damaged or destroyed in devastating Russian airstrikes.
House Republicans continue to hold Ukraine rescue funding and military support hostage for an incoherent political agenda.
April 12, 2024
Russia’s missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, the bombardment of its second-largest city and advances along the front are stoking worries that Kyiv’s military effort is nearing breaking point.
A dire shortage of ammunition due to a dysfunctional Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives failing in their legislative responsibilities to pass a Ukraine funding package, passed by the bi-partian Senate last month. Hanging above it all is the stalled $60 billion US aid package, a victim of infighting among House Republicans benefiting Putin. Should US funds not come through, there is no alternative for Ukraine at its darkest moment, the officials said. An unprecedented series of foreign officials have visited Washington recently and appealed to congressional Republicans to approve more aid for Ukraine.
In the meantime, Russian forces are benefiting from a widening gap in ammunition supplies, with Moscow set to secure 6 million shells this year with ramped-up production and supplies from North Korea and Iran, according to one official.
Manpower shortages are another problem for Ukraine along a 930 mile front and and with gaps in air defenses, altogether have placed Ukraine at its most fragile moment in over two years of war, according to Western officials.
The risk is a collapse of Ukrainian defenses, an event that would give Kremlin an opening to make a major advance for the first time since the initial stages of the conflict, at least one official said.
The next few months will amount to Ukraine’s toughest test, with a public growing exhausted of war, especially in the city of Kharkiv in the country’s east, which has been particularly targeted.
Krystyna Malieieva, who fled the city after Russia invaded and then returned, said the unpredictability of the attacks have struck fear into city residents, even if most don’t believe the Kremlin can take a metropolis whose prewar population was 1.5 million.
“There is very depressive mood in Kharkiv now,” Malieieva, the owner of a family center who returned in 2023 after a year in Croatia and the UK, said in an interview. “People started to return last year, new restaurants opened — and now I see people are fleeing again.”
April 5th, 2024
Russian forces were advancing, and pushing back against them was “difficult”, said Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s armed forces.
Syrskyi said the situation in the Bakhmut area in the partially occupied eastern Donetsk region was particularly challenging, Reuters reported.
He said Russian forces are carrying out offensive operations day and night, using assault groups with the support of armoured vehicles, as well as assaults on foot.
Fierce battles are taking place east of the town of Chasiv Yar, which Ukraine still controls and which is located near the occupied city of Bakhmut.
Russian forces are trying to break through defensive lines there, Syrskyi said on the messaging app Telegram, adding that “Chasiv Yar remains under our control, all enemy attempts to break through to the settlement have failed”.
Near Avdiivka, another city in the Donetsk region held by the Russians, the fiercest battles were occurring in Pervomaiskyi and Vodyanyi, according to the official. He also said the situation is tense on the southern and north-eastern parts of the front line.
Meantime, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned of “significant consequences” for China if its companies provide material support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron is expected to visit the United States next week in order to persuade Republican politicians to approve a $60bn package of aid for Ukraine that they have delayed in the US Congress for months.
Ukraine is a country clinging to independence in the face of a broad and bloody assault intent on toppling Ukraine’s democratic government and scramble the post-cold war world order. Vladimir Putin is determined to overthrow Ukraine’s government and replace it with a regime of his own.
The invasion represents Putin’s boldest effort yet to redraw the map of Europe and revive Moscow’s cold war-era influence. It has triggered an international response including an uncharacteristically unified NATO response and direct sanctions on Putin. Military and economic aid from the United States, and direct support from Ukraine’s neighboring NATO countries further threatened by Russia’s invasion are proving essential to Ukraine’s self-defense.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also abruptly transformed the world. Millions of people have already fled. Global food and grain exports have been disrupted, and a revived Iron Curtain is grinding into place. As economic warfare deepens in step with the military conflict, Ukrainian civilian casualties rise along with evidence of horrific war crimes by committed by Russian military forces.
As the war enters its third painful year (2024), Ukraine’s leadership is fighting along a 930-mile front with the Russians, fighting to win crucial supplies from allies and fighting among itself. It wants to avoid being forced to negotiate unpalatable peace terms, even though the pressure to do so is building.
The Ukraine war is far from Hawaii’s shores, but the implications of this war are global, including an embargo on importing Russian oil which Hawaiian Electric combustion power plants depend. Ukraine’s war-disrupted grain exports (the breadbasket of the world) drive up global food prices and inflation.
It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, with tens of thousands having perished in a war that’s ushered in the most geopolitically dangerous era in decades. More violence has erupted, including the disastrous conflict between Israel and Hamas. Tensions everywhere seem to be rising. The Kremlin could deploy a nuclear weapon into space as early as this year, the US told allies, just before the Biden administration unveiled a far-reaching sanctions package against Russia.
One the second anniversary of the Russian invasion Ukraine, President Joe Biden told the world:
The brave people of Ukraine fight on, unbowed in their determination to defend their freedom and future. Nato is stronger, larger, and more united than ever. And the unprecedented 50-nation global coalition in support of Ukraine, led by the United States, remains committed to providing critical assistance to Ukraine and holding Russia accountable for its aggression. The American people and people around the world understand that the stakes of this fight extend far beyond Ukraine.
Ukraine on Saturday (Feb. 24,2024) marked two years since Russia’s invasion, entering a new year of war weakened by a lack of western aid and ammunition while Russia is emboldened by fresh gains. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that decisions on arms supplies had to be “the priority”. The anniversary of the invasion on 24 February 2022 will see visits by western leaders including the European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen.
At the beginning of the War, Ukraine defied expectations by repelling a much larger invading Russian army, and preventing outright defeat, but international aid and military-supply deliveries have slowed, and soldiers under heavy artillery fire are dying in the thousands, sometimes for a few miles of land.
Overall, war aid remains uncertain for Kyiv due to far-right Republicans in Congress blocking a vital $60bn aid package, compounded by arms delivery delays promised by European allies.Meantwhile, grinding Russian advances and faltering Western backing for Kyiv has been a gift to Putin (the Russian leader) who’s recent lookout on the war has shifted from depressed to confident, convinced he now has the numbers to win the war and completed his conquer of Ukraine.
DONETSK REGION, Ukraine — On Feb. 17, Russia claimed total control of the eastern city of Avdiivka — its first significant territorial gain in almost a year.
The loss was a stinging defeat for Ukraine, which up until the last minute was still rushing troops to the city in a desperate last-ditch attempt to hold the Russians off.
By many accounts, the Ukrainian retreat was panicked and disorganized, with dozens feared left behind as Russian forces attacked in seemingly endless waves.
Seven troops from the 3rd Assault Brigade spoke to The Post about their final days under Russian assault inside the former Ukrainian stronghold. Their accounts drive home the urgency of Ukraine’s battlefield disadvantage as soldiers — far outnumbered by Russians — wait for Western weapon deliveries and troop reinforcements.
Two years of war have remade Russia.
Isolated from the West, it is now more dependent on China. Political repression is reminiscent of the grim days of the Soviet Union.
But Russia is not the economic shambles many in the West predicted when they imposed punishing sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians are pulling down their highest incomes in years.
Russian society has been refashioned in ways that have devastated some and lifted others. While government critics languish in jail and young men die in trenches at the front, other Russians — especially those willing to spout the official line — are feeling more optimistic than ever.
In the early months of the war, Putin’s military made grave mistakes, but it has regrouped. Russia fended off a Western-backed Ukrainian counteroffensive and has taken the initiative on the front, buoyed by frozen American aid for Ukraine. Still, Russia has sustained huge costs to get this far. It is far from controlling the four regions it claims to have annexed, let alone the rest of Ukraine, and Mr. Putin may need to carry out another draft. Putlin publically claims he would like to negotiate an end to the war, but skeptics see that as a ploy to undercut Western aid to Ukraine.
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Ukraine-Russ-War-logo.png426527Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-09-26 05:35:462025-09-28 07:17:01Russian Invasion of Ukraine; then and now
We humans are paradoxically creatures of great good and great harm to ourselves and the planet.
The drumbeat of modern history is neither unique nor certain as to the outcome of humanity’s present and future.
Today’s political drumbeat is just one more noise which drives humanity, like cattle, in one direction or another. Increasingly, individual thought must compete with the digital beat and megaphone of modern day influences. These are self-appointed modern soothsayers who compete with our individual thoughts which are deeply-embedded within the ancient human instinct of fight-or-flight, and challenge the prism of our modern day experiences.
The modern age of original thought must increasingly compete with the recent arrival of always-on digital influencers. A strange mix of information and misinformation with a one sided mission. This cacophony of human instinct and individual thought is now showered with a mix of digital information and misinformation of our own interpretation and connection.
We humans still find comfort in family, friends, religious belief systems, and we have historically shared thoughts with others within these circles of our own choosing. That is, beliefs and experiences with a select group of others who think (or believe) often like ourselves. In today’s world, we humans also seem to find debate increasing hard or frustrating with anyone outside our own circles of conversation and with those of minds wide-shut.
Sharing our thoughts and beliefs increasingly does little to resolve today’s growing social and self-reinforcing political divisions. We also find ourselves today in a disconnected (yet connected) world facing true problems with select and predetermined solutions; and often based on reasoning and statements absent truth and reality. All these changes are coming at the expense of intellectual and emotional discourse among and between people with different beliefs, and based increasingly on information lacking facts and unfounded beliefs, and most importantly honest debate.
Who would have guessed that a popular Beatles song would today provide the perfect analogy and response to a world increasingly aligned with leaders as purveyors of false information — a 60 year old song appropriately titled with a message for this moment in human history:
“Think For Yourself”…
I’ve got a word or two to say about the things that you do
You’re telling all those lies About the good things that we can have if we close our eyes …
And though you still can’t see I know your mind’s made up
you’re gonna cause more misery;
Try thinking more if just for your own sake;
The future still looks good and you’ve got time to rectify all the things that you should …
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Future.jpg235274Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-09-14 10:43:562025-09-14 16:15:31Think For Yourself
In 2025, the Trump administration has enacted sweeping cuts to major Federally-funded national science programs, freezing awards, eliminating sub-agencies, and reshaping research priorities to de-emphasize climate, health, and diversity topics. During his time in office, including his current term, Donald Trump and his one-man decider administration, has been accused by various legitimate sources of undermining and attacking Science.
Many leading agencies’ budgets are being reduced by 26–55%, jeopardizing thousands of research projects and active research systems, thus jeopardizing global U.S. scientific leadership.
National Science Program Cuts
National Institutes of Health (NIH)
NIH funding reduced by 40%: The budget falls from $47 billion to $27 billion.
Program eliminations: The National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities and National Institute of Nursing Research are slated for elimination.
Indirect cost caps: Grantee institutions’ overhead rate is capped at 15%, slashing support for universities and hospitals.
$783 million in health research cuts: Many grants ceased, especially those aligned with diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) priorities.
National Science Foundation (NSF)
NSF budget cut by 55%: Falls from $9 billion to $4 billion.
Grant cancellations: Over 1,600 grants canceled, totaling $1.5 billion lost investing; including climate and clean energy programs.
New grant awards frozen: As of April 2025, NSF staff were told to halt all new funding, with a near-total freeze on higher education science grants.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
CDC cut by 44%: From $9.2 billion to $5.2 billion, resulting in major constraints on infectious disease research, vaccine preparedness, and public health outreach.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
NOAA cut to $4.5 billion (−26%): Specialized climate and ocean research funding sharply reduced.
Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research eliminated: Fundamental climate and weather science programs face termination.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
NASA science directorate funding cut by 52%: Budget slashed from $7.5 billion to $3.9 billion.
Impact: Astrophysics, earth science and climate monitoring, as well as planetary research programs face severe scaling back or elimination. Trump announced last month his plans to terminate two of NASA’s highly successful and accurate Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite missions. The two missions, OCO-2 and OCO-3, provide precise global measurements of carbon dioxide levels and are used for real-time climate monitoring applied to agricultural and ecological forecasting.
Other Agencies and Programs
National Science Foundation STEM grants: 80% drop in new STEM education funding, disproportionately hurting historically underrepresented groups and smaller colleges.
Department of Energy (DOE): Plans to eliminate ARPA–E, clean renewable energy, and climate-focused programs applied to clean energy development.
Trump’s proposed DOE budget for 2026 seeks to zero out funding for solar, wind, and hydrogen, while slashing energy efficiency and electricity-focused zero emissions initiatives by 70–90%
US Geological Survey (USGS): Program terminations affecting university grants and climate-related research.
Research Areas Most Impacted
Basic Research: Overall support for blue-sky research falls from $45 to $30 billion nationwide (−34%).
Climate, environment, and clean energy: Targeted for near-total elimination or rollbacks.
Public health, minority, gender, and DEI/justice programs: Entire institutes cut or carved out of research budgets.
Consequences and Mission Impact
Grant terminations have disrupted thousands of active research projects, left studies incomplete, and eliminated support for many university labs.
Research jobs lost: Hundreds of research assistant and faculty positions have ended as grants were canceled.
Global leadership: The U.S. is projected to relinquish its top position in science and technology innovation if these cuts are enacted.
Each of these agencies, plus federal support for DOE, USGS, higher-education STEM, and minority health research have been directly cut, canceled, or reordered to emphasize AI/quantum priorities while strangling funding for vital climate and health research programs.
Truth & Reality
No reasonable areas of scientific necessity and public benefit or achievement have been exempt from Trump’s Federal agency cuts. The moves lack reasonable justification, and appear to pivot the nation towards politically into dark age of scientific and public knowledge deficits, e.g.;
Undermining scientific expertise:
Significant staff cuts at science-focused agencies like the Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Energy, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Environmental Protection Agency.
Replacing independent scientists on advisory boards with industry representatives or appointees lacking relevant expertise.
Dismissing scientific advisory committees.
Restricting the use of scientific information in regulatory documents and policies.
Hindering research:
Ordering sweeping and cuts to scientific research funding and programs at agencies such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and NASA, potentially leading to job losses for researchers and delays in critical research.
Canceling grants related to specific research topics, like diversity, equity, and inclusion, gender ideology, or certain areas of public health research.
Interfering with research processes, including halting studies, restricting access to data, and destroying records.
Requiring political appointees to review research programs, potentially leading to the blocking of funding for research that doesn’t align with the administration’s priorities.
Suppressing and censoring information:
Removing or altering thousands of federal webpages and databases, many of which contained critical science-based data, especially on environmental and climate issues.
Ordering federal agencies to eliminate DEI and environmental justice programs and related information.
Restricting scientists’ communication with the public and media, including requiring permission from political appointees before speaking to reporters.
Misrepresenting or dismissing scientific findings that don’t support the administration’s agenda, for example by questioning the validity of climate change research.
Weakening public protections:
Undermining environmental regulations and policies by weakening chemical safety laws, air pollution rules, and limiting access to information on fracking.
Eliminating climate change from policy development, including removing mentions of climate change from official documents and websites.
Ignoring the need for environmental impact reviews and weakening the Endangered Species Act.
An educational foundation for America’s scientific leadership is in jeopardy — and Hawaii will be impacted
STEM education and workforce development cuts have seen the largest drops seen in funding for K–12 and college education programs, especially for underrepresented groups. STEM programs in Hawaii cater to various ages, including after school initiatives like the Hā Initiative for K-8 students and programs such as the Hawaii Science and Technology Museum (HSTM)’s science camps for K-12 students. Higher education offers opportunities like the UH Hilo Keaholoa STEM Scholars Program for underrepresented minority students and the impending STEM Center at Honolulu Community College.For a focus on environmental stewardship, Pilina ʻĀina provides immersive forest field courses in middle-high school.
Altogether, Trump’s executive actions have been met with alarm from scientists, researchers, and general public who worry about the long-term consequences for the United States’ leadership in science and innovation, as well as the impact on public health and the environment. Some scientists have launched initiatives to monitor and counter the administration’s attacks on Science.
It has also been noted that a few areas of select science and technology have been spared by the Trump purge of scientific effort and knowledge, specifically AI and quantum computing which have received prioritization under the Trump administration, but lack a clear plan of presenting a cost-benefit case which justifies Trump’s selective attacks on scientific investments by taxpayers supporting critical areas of benefit to the American public, and the nation.
Beyond the economic benefits, Science research, discoveries, and applications contribute to informed decision-making and the ability for humanity to solve complex problems (many self-inflicted) that affect society, the future of humanity and life on the planet area a crossroads. In the absence of scientific discoveries, and the truths they reveal, solving many problems of the modern world’s problems which threaten humanity’s survival would remain a mystery, absent of a ways and means for correction and resolution.
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/In-Science-We-Trust.png552774Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-09-11 10:30:042025-09-12 17:11:44Science and Truth the Enemy?
Through a flurry of executive orders, Donald Trump has made clear his support for the re-ascendancy of fossil fuels. He has dismantled national policy support for an orderly transition into a competitive and advanced clean energy economy. He has also damaged the United States’ global leadership in the fight to contain an escalating climate crisis now sweeping America, and the world.
“We will drill, baby, drill,” the president said in his inaugural address, and so far he has stuck to his rhetoric.
Climate treaties, solar and wind energy technology, and even electric vehicles increasingly produced in the United States are not part of Trump’s energy agenda. His about face energy policy for the Country is to simply roll back the clock to an energy time and place long since obsolete, costly, and destructive to America and the world. In the first weeks of 2025, President Trump proudly proclaimed, “We’re bringing back coal”.
Trump energy priorities in his second term have also included attacks on energy efficiency in all its various and productive forms from home appliances to national power grid. In effect, directing Americans to pay for more fuel just to keep the lights on, compounded by policy actions ranging from mandating energy-inefficient appliances to advancing fuel-inefficient transportation and in the burning more fossil fuels.
Scientists continue to tell global leaders (and most are listening) the world must urgently move away from fossil fuels to avoid the ever-worsening impacts of a growing global climate crisis, as evidenced by last year being the hottest ever recorded and Los Angeles suffering ruinous wildfires.
For those not listening or just engaged in wishful thinking, these are wonderful moments of the Trump presidency. It certainly has been a good time for fossil fuel executives who poured tens of millions of dollars into Trump’s election campaign, in what has been another example of polluter interests participating in the Trump “pay-to-play” presidency.
In the first days of his presidency, Trump was on fire, as he declared an unfounded “national energy emergency” and opened the flood gates to overriding executive actions meant to boost an already-booming and heavily subsidized fossil fuel industry.
Trump’s first order of business in this round-two presidency was to invoke the so-called “National Emergencies Act” that unlocked an array of executive powers designed to fast-track the production and distribution of (dirty) energy. It has been a continuing Trump policy payback to the fossil fuel industry’s for its overwhelming financial support of Trump’s second successful run for the presidency. Trump’s long-awaited energy emergency outraged climate advocates. “There is no energy emergency,” said Manish Bapna, president and CEO of the green non-profit Natural Resources Defense Council. “There is a climate emergency.”
In short, Trump’s number one energy priority at this moment in history; do what US fossil fuel interests want: remove energy safeguards, roll back environmental protections and pollution containment regulations, and certainly do everything possible to increase domestic dirty energy production and demand.
Breaking News, August 15th
Trump’s orders to keep obsolete and inefficient fossil fuel power plants open slated for closure. The move will cost taxpayers and ratepayers alike, billions of dollars.
President Donald Trump’s order to keep large fossil-fueled power stations scheduled to retire between now and 2028 operating indefinitely will cost ratepayers across the United States $3.1 billion per year, according to new research from the consultancy Grid Strategies on behalf of four large environmental groups.
If the Department of Energy expands the order to cover all 54 fossil fuel plants slated for closure in the next three years, the price tag for Americans whose rates fund the subsidies to keep the stations running would rise to $6 billion per year. The order to keep large fossil-fueled power stations scheduled to retire between now and 2028 operating “indefinitely”. The agency’s existing mandate “perversely incentivize plant owners to claim they plan to retire so they can receive a ratepayer subsidy to remain open,” the report points out.
Round Two – roll back America’s emerging clean energy economy
“President Trump’s plan to keep the US hooked on fossil fuels under the guise of ‘energy dominance’ will line the pocketbooks of billionaires and fossil fuel companies,” said Ashfaq Khalfan, climate justice director at the charity Oxfam America.
The oil and gas industry donated more than $75m to Trump’s campaign, a pay-to-play financial bonanza for Trump. Immediately being sworn as the 47th president, and in one fell swoop, Trump rescinded numerous Biden era executive actions, including ones focused on climate-related financial risk, protecting the Arctic and boosting multilateral climate action.
In 2021, then President Biden guided his administration resources towards addressing a growing national risk, specifically, a growing climate crisis which poses numerous risks to the US economy. He directed government officials to push for “accurate disclosure of climate-related financial risks”, and called on regulators to consider measures to boost those disclosures.
More than a slap in the face to all Americans, Trump’s present day backwards-facing energy priorities are tone-deaf to the lessons of the past, and thus are without merit. It recently has been a full stop on progress and lessons-learned in the governing responsibilities covering environmental, climate, and national energy priorities. Previous U.S. energy policies based years of national scientific and commercial investments in the advancement of America’s transition into a clean, healthy and prosperous energy economy and are in this President’s crosshairs for elimination.
Blow’in.., in the Wind
Trump has also long viewed wind energy with disdain, calling the sight of turbines “disgusting” and blaming them, misleadingly, for causing disproportionate deaths of birds and whales.
Trump has targeted, in a full-stop maneuver, policies enabling nation’s nascent offshore Wind Energy sector. Using false reasoning that denies the facts, Trump claims turbines are killing thousands of whales, but this president’s executive order is more than a Wind energy ban on ocean projects, he has gone further by placing a freeze on all permits for wind projects on both land and sea.
Trump has also repeatedly demonstrated his disdain for the truth. All things associated with America’s growing clean energy economy are not exempt from this disdain and are in the new president’s crosshairs. Trump also overturned two key Biden energy policies designed to restrict fossil fuel development, in favor lower cost and zero emissions energy options facing forward, not backwards, in America’s energy policy.
One policy former Biden president enabled earlier (with substantial support from US coastal states) was to withdraw swaths of the US coasts from future oil and gas drilling (thereby eliminate the threat of pollution spills) included the entire US east coast, the eastern Gulf of Mexico, parts of the US Pacific Coast, including portions of Alaska’s Bering Sea.
Trump has long derided green policies and repeatedly called the climate crisis a “hoax”.
As Trump returned to office, we’ve witnessed the deadly price tag of fossil fuel industry’s control over our democracy,” said Elizabeth Bast, executive director of the research and advocacy group Oil Change International, adding that “…Thousands of (fossil fuel) drilling permits are currently going unused.” Trump energy policy is simply designed to expand oil and gas extraction, Bast said. Moves so far that have been met with ire from scientists and environmentalists, and much of the public.
Andy Moderow, senior director of policy at the non-profit Alaska Wilderness League, called Trump’s go-backwards energy policy as a “slap in the face to science, the American public and Indigenous communities who seek land protections”.
Electrifying Results
President Biden’s signature legislative accomplishments was the bipartisan passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022. The Act included a $7.5bn plan to build EV-charging stations and it enabled America’s transition into the 21st century, and in this case, addressing the elimination of auto emissions pollution and advancing lower cost (clean fuel) personal transportation for all Americans, which by extension addresses a national climate crisis and its growing financial and social consequences to the United States, and the world.
Emissions regulations finalized by Biden’s administration (which Trump labeled an “EV mandate”) do not directly require the production of electric vehicles, but it was a major and enabling step for forward America’s auto industry and consumers alike. It was good for the economy, good for consumers, and good for the planet – a win-win all the way around.
Immediately returning to office, Trump took direct aim at the IRA, and more specifically, federal support for electric vehicles and clean energy, considered a direct challenge to the fossil fuel sector. Trump’s response shortly after taking power was to overturn Biden executive orders and the IRA, with its goal of achieving an outcome of half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 would be electric and fossil fuel-free.
“We will end the Green New Deal, and we will revoke the electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto industry,” he said in an address at the rotunda. What trump failed to note was US auto industry’s major accomplishment in quickly transitioning to electric drivetrains and battery powered vehicles, a direct by product of the industry’s investment, technology, and global leadership in a rapid transition to electrification.
In an executive order, Trump said his administration will halt the distribution of unspent government funds for vehicle charging stations and called for the end of a waiver for states to adopt stricter auto-emission rules by 2035. Later followed, by the premature sun setting of consumer EV rebates, costly to both Americans budgets and the US auto industry inn what is an unqualified reversal in American technology and consumer choice. . . .
Some of Trump’s EV-Impacted Regulatory Rollbacks:
Rescinds the federal target of 50% EV sales by 2030.
Eliminates; Oct 1, 2025, for qualified taxpayers, EV rebates of $7,500 for new electric vehicle purchases, and $4,000 for used EV purchases.
Pauses funding for charging infrastructure and federal incentives for new charging stations.
Ends regulatory penalties for automakers failing to reach fuel economy (CAFE) standards, removing a key motivator for manufacturers to produce more EVs
Immediate Impacts on EV Sales
Short-Term Surge: EV sales have spiked in recent months, with consumers “rushing out” to buy before the tax credit deadline. July 2025 saw nearly 130,100 new EVs sold—a 20% jump over July 2024, and a record for monthly EV market share at 9.1%.
Total EV sales for H1 2025: 607,089 (up just 1.5% year-over-year), but Q2 saw a 6.3% Y/Y decline, reflecting growing market uncertainty.
Expected Drop: Analysts forecast a dramatic plunge in sales following the September 30 expiration, with 4Q 2025 likely experiencing a “collapse” as the market adjusts to a new policy landscape without incentives.
Market predictions suggest U.S. EV sales could fall by over 40% through 2030, as half of EV buyers have relied on tax credits to afford these vehicles.
Industry and Consumer Impact
Automakers Rethink Strategy: Major manufacturers (Ford, GM, startups) have dialed back planned EV production, likely shifting focus toward hybrids or conventional gasoline vehicles—especially models that may benefit from new auto loan interest deductions favoring lower-cost domestic gas cars.
The attacks on the electric vehicle industrial sector is a major set-back for America’s manufacturing, technology, and auto sectors, and is already creating turmoil among American’s top vehicle manufacturers who have invested billions in the transition away from gas-powered vehicles.
Trump’s unqualified executive orders are already imperiling US climate sector leadership and accomplishments towards a clean energy economy. Transportation is the largest contributor to US planet-heating emissions and a major source of health-harming pollution. “Rolling back vehicle emission safeguards harms our health, our wallets and our climate,” Katherine García, who directs the clean transit program at the green group Sierra Club, said.
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Trump-Dirty-Energy-Policy-1.png372624Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-08-15 07:14:022025-09-06 11:44:02A National Energy Policy Reversal
In a total flip in national policy and in an absence of common sense as national policy, President Donald Trump and his administration have undertaken sweeping immigration crackdowns indiscriminately targeting American residents with valid visas who are also highly skilled workers. That has resulted in a significant national brain drain resulting from the Trump Administration’s targeting the dismantling of Federal research, and all climate science related undertakings and solutions.
The biggest damage is to the slowdown in the import of talent which reduces America’s ability to have the kinds of scientific and commercial breakthroughs which allow the US to address climate change and grow the economy.
Trump policy impacts have recently focused on cutting climate science and related research, including advancing clean energy climate mitigation solutions across all national sectors of the economy. These impacts are systematic and are a full throttle national transition away from science and common sense. The nation’s progress transitioning into highly successful and globally clean energy economy is now in jeopardy. According to the founder of Khosla Ventures, Trump is placing the nation at a global disadvantage with inescapable consequences.
Gretchen Goldman, president of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said Donald Trump’s administration has enacted “far more” attacks on science in the past six months than he did during his entire first term.
Paul Schramm, chief of the CDC’s climate and health program, said he and other reinstated employees have “no clue” why they were laid off in the first place and then brought back. Schramm said funding for the climate science program only remains in place through October, and getting back to work has been a bumpy transition due to restrictions and logistical challenges. Schramm further added that climate and health program workers were among roughly 400 CDC employees who, after being fired in April, were subsequently brought back about a month ago. The reinstatements also included workers at the agency’s asthma and lead poisoning prevention programs.
Ford is responding to Trump and a full retreat in key scientific areas addressing global heating. For Ford the company response to the present national policy reversal on climate and clean energy progress has been to continue to focus on making electric cars cheaper in the US, even after the administration moved to scrap purchase incentives of up to $7,500. “If we’re really going to get into that … more significant majority – rather than the early majority – affordability is going to play into that,” Bob Holycross, Ford’s chief sustainability, environment and safety officer.
High prices remain one of the largest obstacles to electric vehicle adoption, and analysts drastically reduced EV sales estimates after Congress’ decision to junk federal incentives and a suite of other policy supports.
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials who were laid off and subsequently reinstated have “no clue” why, according to Paul Schramm, chief of the agency’s climate and health program
Europe, the Middle East and India are among the potential beneficiaries from an outflow of international climate science and technology workers from the US.
Canada, France and Germany are among nations already offering incentives, including relocation packages to US-born researchers, as they take advantage of a present US policy jettisoning scientific and technology talent in widespread cuts linked to Federal agencies dependent on climate funding.
Breaking News
The Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday that it would eliminate the agency’s scientific research arm and begin firing hundreds of chemists, biologists, toxicologists and other scientists, after denying for months that it intended to do so.
The EPA’s research arm has been specifically targeted for closure,along with the firing of hundreds of biologists, chemists, toxicologists, and other scientists whose work helps determine safe pollution levels for regulations.
The announcement comes after months of denials from EPA administrator Lee Zeldin that he planned to close the division in question, the Office of Research and Development, which studies the threat from climate change, toxic chemicals, and air and water pollution on human health, and funds university research programs. The move further underscores how the Trump administration is forging ahead with efforts to slash the federal workforce and dismantle federal agencies with specific agency missions designed to address national environmental and global climate impacts.
The administration decision came quickly after the GOP-controlled Supreme Court allowed these plans to proceed while legal challenges unfold. Government scientists across all Federal agencies have been particular targets of the administration’s policy enacting large-scale government layoffs without due consideration of the social and scientific impacts to the America.
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Global-Heating-Thermometer.png13111318Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-07-20 10:20:102025-07-21 09:42:29National Climate Policy; Absence of Common Sense
Trump Party Bill has $1.1 Trillion in Health Cuts and 11.8 Million Losing Care, per C.B.O.
Analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that Republicans’ new version of President Trump’s “Big Bill” legislation now in final review in the Republican-controlled Senate would make far deeper cuts and lead to more people becoming medically-uninsured.
President Trump’s “Big Bill” legislation now in final review in the Republican-controlled Senate would make far deeper cuts and lead to more people becoming medically-uninsured than previously proposed or imagined, with the nation’s Medicaid-dependent population feeling the weight of forthcoming government cuts to medical coverage and benefits.
As of August 2024, over 20% of Hawaii’s population was covered by Medicaid or CHIP, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, which reported 443,802 enrollees at that time. As of February 2025, data now indicates “about a quarter of Hawaii’s population relies on Medicaid,” which would translate to roughly 28% of residents fully dependent on Medicaid for healthcare support. Within Hawaii’s total population of about 1.4 million, Medicaid expansion throughout the state reflects a strong commitment to public health coverage.
Hawaii’s Medicaid coverage rate is comparable to other Medicaid expansion states that cover adults earning up to 138% of the Federal Poverty Level. The state’s Medicaid coverage rate (about 28%) is significantly higher than the national average and most other states, ranking it among the top states for Medicaid enrollment.
The cuts in the bill are achieved through numerous provisions, but the bulk of the Medicaid savings come from two major bill features.
It would establish a new, strict national work requirement for some people on the program, who would need to demonstrate they had worked at least 80 hours the month before they sign up, or qualified for an exemption. The Senate version applies this provision to the poor parents of children older than 14 in addition to childless adults without disabilities, the group targeted by the House version. The budget office estimated that that provision alone would reduce federal spending by more than $325 billion over the decade.
The second largest source of savings comes from new restrictions on a strategy many states use to finance Medicaid by imposing taxes on medical providers to leverage a larger federal contribution. The bill’s restrictions on provider taxes and a related mechanism known as state directed payments would cut spending by a combined $375 billion, according to the report. The House bill would freeze the tax rate for most states, but the Senate version would require many states to lower their existing taxes, beginning in 2027.
According to a report published late Saturday night, the legislation would mean:
Over 11.8 million more Americans would become uninsured by 2034.
Federal spending on Medicaid, Medicare and Obamacare would be reduced by more than $1.1 trillion over that period
More than $1 trillion of those cuts coming from Medicaid alone
The fresh estimates make official what many analysts had already predicted and some Republican lawmakers had feared. The size and scope of the health care cuts in the bill, particularly from Medicaid, have been hotly debated, with fiscal hawks pressing for bigger reductions and other Republicans resisting them as they consider the impact on their constituents and health providers in their districts and states.
Republicans’ marquee domestic policy bill currently making its way the GOP-controlled Senatewould result in deeper cuts and more Americans losing health insurance coverage than the original measure that passed the House last month, according to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. They are also at odds with President Trump’s vow not to touch Medicaid except to do away with waste and fraud.
The scale of the proposed reductions in Medicaid is unprecedented in the history of the program, which has tended to expand coverage over time since its creation in 1965.
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Healthcare-Logo.png464603Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-06-29 17:00:252025-06-29 17:37:21Healthcare Cuts Coming; Many of Hawaii's residents about to feel the pain
You’re likely already aware of the most recent Republican-led effort to dismantle President Biden’s primary one-term achievement: introduction and passage of the highly successful IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) into law; the IRA offered a long overdue national funding platform that successfully launched America on a path into a globally competitive Clean Energy economy.
The current attack on the highly successful IRA legislation includes was a package of taxpayer gifts directed at fossil-fuel and polluter interests. Most notable is the GOP’s financial elimination all EV (electric vehicle) tax credits, one of the many accomplishments of the 2023 bipartisan passage of the IRA clean energy bill.
This past week, the GOP (aka the Gas.Oil.Pollution party) with complete control of the House of Representatives, voted to advance a mega dirty energy bill that firmly shifts America into Reverse on all things associated with advancing the nation’s clean energy economy, including vehicle electrification. President Trump promises to bring back coal. Not sure if he intends to bring back coal-burning steamboats and locomotives as well.
The Republican bill inappropriately named “One Big Beautiful Bill Act“ has the potential to devastate electric vehicle sales in the U.S. The bill now goes up for a vote in the Senate at an as-yet-unannounced time. A Princeton University study cited this week that if Republicans succeed in repealing the EV incentives, electric vehicle sales will make up just 24 percent of new car sales in 2030 in the U.S. If incentives remain in place, EVs are projected to make up 40 percent of new car sales by the same year, further reducing America’s dependency on fossil fuels.
The GOP’s bill narrowly passed through the House this past week, by a single vote! The act eliminates EV and clean energy tax credits. Adding salt into the wound, the legislation adds a $250 per year EV car-driver tax. That’s correct, if you own and/or drive an electric vehicle you will soon be paying for a wholly newly created Federal tax. William F. Buckley is rolling over in his grave right now. Oh yes, Hybrid gas-electric vehicle owner-drivers will not escape the GOP’s wrath either, but because they mostly burn gas and not electrons they will only be taxed $100 annually, lucky them.
The bill also eliminates a key EV incentive, the Federal $7,500 purchase credit most middle income buyers have relied on to aid their step in Ev ownership. The $4,000 EV credit given on the purchase of used vehicles is also eliminated, along with the loss of the $1,000 credit on the home installation of Level 2 EV chargers.
Electric vehicles are not the only victims of the House bill which further eliminates tax credits for PV solar installations help generate clean energy and lessen grid power demands for residential and commercial settings. Altogether the loss of funds will especially impact Hawaii’s home grown rooftop solar energy economy.
If the House bill passes in the Republican-controlled Senate and then will most assuredly be signed into law with Trump’s scribble, it will also further enable a national policy shift designed to gut the Country’s investment in clean energy and slow growing public support for a clean energy economy, beginning with a large scale transition to EV’s.
The nation’s emerging BEV battery manufacturing sector is also being targeted, impacting primarily Red States invested in an emerging national clean energy transition. Included in this policy roll-back are domestic EV production plants and jobs, growth in the advanced battery technology sector, electric vehicle component design and manufacturing, along with an emerging domestic industrial sector addressing end-of-life battery re-manufacturing sector. All this and more will be negatively impact by the President’s to roll-back the clock on technology and sustainability advancements within America’s industrial and manufacturing sectors. These are only few examples of US economic sectors benefiting from the IRA system of grants, loans, and business development enablers in a 21st century global economy.
What’s also at stake is defeating national advancements now lessening America’s oil dependencies and costs of a fossil-fueled dependent economy; which increasingly are reflected in rising public healthcare, climate, social and environmental costs across America and the world.
So the party of Gas-Oil-Polluters (GOP) eliminates tax credits for EVs, but, their not satisfied with just crippling the growth of clean transportation, their House bill also targets domestic solar and wind, and energy efficiency improvements from cars-to-refrigerators-to factories. For some unknown reason, today’s GOP power players view efficiency when applied to a sustainable economy as a waste of time and money that they are neither invested or interested in… and their priorities are wrong; period.
Today’s growing clean energy economy continues to save Americans money, addresses a toxic business-as-usual environment of pollution, natural destruction, and all within the challenges and impacts of an increasingly hotter world.
Yet, today we have a President and “his” party minions enacting tax cuts for billionaires funded by everyone else who pays the bills. Any national policy firmly fixed on the past, rolls back progress as its national agenda, and by intention ignores science-based realities is simply misaligned in priorities and focus on today’s choices and tomorrow’s consequences.
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Beyond-kona-politics.jpg300512Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-05-27 10:31:392025-05-27 17:11:44GOP Gift to Big Oil & Billionaires
The first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second presidential term has been marked by a poorly executed agenda with rising social, economic, and political costs. It has also been exemplified by Executive Branch overreach, poor execution, false justification, and confusion, and last but not least, delusions of monarchy coupled with fundamental ineptitude.
The result is general public anxiety, markets falling precipitously along with many Americans’ shrinking retirement savings, and global uncertainty, each impact marked by unshakable American confidence that has been shaken, not stirred.
After a hundred days in which Trump at times appeared invincible, political gravity is exerting itself. A majority of Americans regard him as both a failure and a would-be dictator. From the courts to the streets, from law offices to college campuses, revolt is swelling. Republicans are eyeing next year’s midterm elections with nervousness.
“The honeymoon is over,” said John Zogby, an author and pollster. “He actually squandered his hundred days, perhaps you can argue, by doing too much, not succeeding with much of it and overplaying his hand.At the end of the 100 days his polling numbers reflect an unsuccessful quarter. Every poll that I know of, including mine, has him upside down.”
If rising economic uncertainties and growing public anxiety weren’t enough, then there the legal issues accompanying Trump’s new presidency, marked by non-stop executive overreach in this now first hundred days of this presidency. Notably, unqualified leadership shake-ups of key Federal agencies have been rubber-stamped by a Republican majority, in what is at the moment a one-party system without pubic accountability.
On day one the Trump presidency kicked-off a flood of presidential pardons of January 6th insurrectionists previously jailed for their Congressional attack and other criminal acts against the American people.
According to a poll published by the Washington Post newspaper and ABC News, only 39% of Americans approve of how Trump is conducting his presidency. About 64% of respondents said he was “going too far” in his efforts to expand presidential powers.
Governing by Executive Order
As of this past Monday, Trump signed more than 140 executive orders, far more than any American president in the same period. He is also rapidly approaching the number that former president Barack Obama signed during his entire first term in office.
Trump’s record-breaking use of executive powers is too often thinly and repeatedly justified by the president and his supporters as following a so-called “voter mandate” which elevated Trump to the office of the presidency without guardrails or accountability. In reality, Trump’s win was marked by the slimmest of margins (one and a half percent).
Few Americans signed up for a new President with unprecedented authoritarian powers – powers directed towards knocking down the pillars American democracy, representative governance, and public accountability — in so doing reducing America’s system of representative government to one man.
The 2024 election results favoring Trump produced a winner with less than 50% of the vote, and less than a 1.6% percent winning margin of the popular vote — anything, but a national mandate to violate laws, and foreshake common good in name of false efficiency and unqualified corruption allegations across the Federal Government, all from the chaos playbook of Project 2025. Trump’s presidential actions are far from representing the public interest, and so-far have demonstrated they are in fact coming at the expense of the Republic and the American people.
The US economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter, due to a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and declining consumer spending.
President Trump spent much of his first quarter threatening, then implementing sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and targeting China with higher duties on record for its exports to America.
As it stands, today, President Trump, by fiat, established a 10% universal tariff on all imported goods to the United States from much of the world, along with a particularly egregious 145% tariff on all imports from China. Trump’s tariff policy, Congressional oversight or approval, is beginning to impact the pocketbooks of most Americans. U.S. businesses in the coming months, as pre-tariff supplies run out will be forced to further pass on costs into the economy.
Trump’s shoot from the hip global tariff policy economists forecast is risking America with both recession and inflation simultaneously, also know as stagflation. Trump tariffs are also setting America on course of repeating history with economic repercussions similar to the 1930 enacted Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act which triggered retaliatory tariffs and leading to a sharp decline in global trade and exacerbating the Great Depression.
The first quarter 2025 drop in nation’s economy comes amid a huge fall in consumer sentiment, which in April dropped 32% to lowest level since 1990 recession.
On the Climate front, Trump falsely declared in his first days in office that America is in an “energy emergency”. He used this false-narrative as justification initiate a national policy reversing America’s emerging clean energy economy, climate initiatives and environmental regulations governing various forms of fossil fuel pollution and climate emissions.
The Trump administration has also systematically dismantled and otherwise abandoned America’s scientific leadership in addressing Climate Change threats to social, economic, and environmental stakeholders now addressing growing global heating impacts.
On the Clean Energy front, the Trump administration has been trying to claw back money allocated to states for electric vehicle charging, home energy retrofits, electric school buses, utility bill assistance, and more. Even longstanding tax credits that states rely on to transition to clean and renewable energy have been targeted for elimination. On top of all this, the president has threatened to sic his attorney general on states with ambitious climate policies, including Hawaii.
State lawmakers around the country are also re-negotiating their budgets for the coming year amid unprecedented Federal uncertainty. Any decisions they make now about how to spend state and Federal funds may need to be revisited after Congress finishes its budget reconciliation bill, which will mostly likely further hollow-out key Federal programs state economies depend on and Federal programs state governments upon; including Hawaii.
“The weakness this quarter is also a preview of weakness in future quarters,” said Tara Sinclair, director of the Center for Economic Research at George Washington University. “We are seeing a dramatic change in people’s behavior, similar to what we saw during the shock of the pandemic. They’re front-loading purchases they might’ve made earlier in the year, and that’s very concerning for future quarters.”
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Trump-Zelenskky.png305468Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-05-04 06:16:472025-05-04 07:53:14The First 100 Days; a self-righteous mission
Recession odds are rising as Trump’s trade war escalates, Goldman Sachs says.
The US economy faces a growing risk of a recession as surging tariffs threaten to stunt growth, reignite inflation and lift unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs.
The Wall Street bank warned clients in March that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously. Goldman Sachs also increased its inflation estimate, slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1% and bumped up its year-end unemployment rate outlook by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%.
Market Close as of April 10th, 2025
This story was originally published in BeyondKona on March 29, 2025 …
Bloomberg reported last week that US consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021 on concerns about the outlook for the broader economy, adding to a growing stack of indicators that uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies has Americans increasingly worried about their economic future.
Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since January 2021. This marks a continuation of a downward trend that began after the December 2024 election. The Conference Board survey highlights increasing concerns about inflation and a potential economic downturn, resembling stagflation. Expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions also dropped to a 12-year low
Rising inflation and tariffs are key factors driving pessimism among Americans. A CBS News poll revealed that 67% of participants expressed concerns about the economy. The sharp decline in consumer confidence since Trump took office and has raised recession fears among economists. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflects a dropped to 57.0 in March, down from 64.7 in February and 80.4 a year ago. This marks a monthly decline of 11.9% and an annual drop of 28.2%, indicating worsening sentiment regarding personal finances and business conditions
The drop in confidence was broad across age groups and incomes.
Consumers were more pessimistic about current and future labor-market conditions as well as the outlook for incomes and business conditions. Perceptions of present and future financial situations worsened and the share of respondents expecting a recession in the next year rose to a nine-month high.
That pessimism has Americans cutting back their spending: According to a new study from Wells Fargo, more than half of consumers are delaying major life plans due to uncertainty over the economy and the consequences of Trump’s tariff threats. layoffs and chaos in cutting federal agencies impacting most Americans.
American consumers confidence in Trump policies continue to retreat: Consumers surveyed this week stated;
a third said they were putting off buying a home
one in six have postponed education plans, and
one in eight have pushed back retirement plans
President Donald Trump signaled tariffs on American’s former NAFTA trading partners Mexican and Canadian imports will go ahead and he’s also stepping up pressure on other traditional trading partners and allies, adding to inflation pressures and threat of a global trade war.
Several factors contributed to this downturn in consumer sentiment:
Inflation fears: Consumers expressed increased worry about persistent inflation, with expectations for higher prices in the coming years.
Disruptions and widespread layoffs in Federal agencies by Trump administration: actions ranging from the threat of agency shut downs to benefit cutbacks in healthcare, amplifying financial concerns of most American pocketbooks, directly and indirectly.
Trade policy uncertainty: There is growing apprehension regarding President Donald Trump’s stringent tariff policies and their potential impact on the economy and consumers pocketbooks
Labor market concerns: Consumers became more pessimistic about future employment prospects, with this pessimism reaching a ten-month high
Income outlook: Americans reported feeling less optimistic about their future income prospects
Trump signed a proclamation earlier this week to implement a 25% tariff on auto imports and pledged harsher punishment on the EU and Canada if they join forces against the US, expanding a trade war and triggering threats of retaliation. “What we’re going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars that are not 100% made in the United States,” Trump said at the White House on Wednesday as he pushed ahead with a program seeking to bring more manufacturing jobs to the US.
Hours later, Trump suggested further tariffs would be imposed on the European Union and Canada if they worked together “to do economic harm” to the US. The reaction in currency markets including the euro and Canadian dollar was muted. Taken together, Trump’s escalating trade actions appear likely to deepen tensions with key trading partners even before his promised so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
Key Impacts on Hawaii’s Economy
Federal Funding Cuts and Layoffs
Trump’s administration has implemented sweeping federal funding cuts and layoffs, which could result in the loss of approximately 2,200 federal jobs in Hawaii. These layoffs are expected to offset growth in construction and other sectors, contributing to stagnant job growth in 2025, and minimal growth in 2026.
Federal grant rescissions have already affected projects like wildfire mitigation efforts in Waikōloa Village, further straining local initiatives.
Tariffs and Rising Costs
New tariffs include a 10% levy on Chinese imports and a pending 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. These measures are increasing uncertainty and driving up costs for materials like aluminum and steel, which are critical for construction projects.
Tariff-related price hikes could deter new development projects as contractors face unpredictable cost pressures.
Tourism Decline
Trade wars linked to Trump’s tariffs have weakened international economies, leading to reduced visitor arrivals from key markets like Canada. Canadian visitors to Hawaii dropped significantly in 2024, impacting spending and overall tourism revenue.
Additional travel restrictions for federal employees have also hurt Hawaii’s hospitality sector, leaving hotel rooms empty unexpectedly.
Inflation and Consumer Behavior
Tariffs are expected to raise prices on goods and services, potentially causing mainland U.S. consumers to cut back on luxury spending like long-haul travel to Hawaii. This could further dampen tourism, a cornerstone of Hawaii’s economy
Inflationary pressures from tariffs are compounded by external factors like the bird flu, which has driven up poultry and egg prices nationwide.
Construction Sector Challenges
While construction remains a bright spot due to ongoing federal contracts, tariffs and potential labor shortages caused by deportations may push costs higher. Uncertainty surrounding future projects could slow long-term growth in this sector.
Vehicle Sales
Hawaii’s auto industry is experiencing declining sales, with optimism for recovery in 2025 dampened by tariff-related uncertainties affecting consumer confidence.
Overall, Trump’s tariff policies, combined with federal funding cuts and immigration measures, are creating headwinds for Hawaii’s economy. These factors threaten job stability, increase costs across industries, and weaken key sectors like tourism and construction. Economists warn that these challenges could lead to a recession or significantly slower growth over the next few years
https://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Trump-Economy-Crash-4-10-25.png390577Bill Bugbeehttps://www.beyondkona.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/beyond-kona-logo.pngBill Bugbee2025-04-10 10:08:472025-04-10 14:06:34Trump-Led Policies Crashing the US - Hawaii Economy?
In eastern Ukraine, Moscow’s war machine has been churning mile by mile through the wide open fields of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions – also known as the Donbas – surrounding and overwhelming villages and towns.
(Sept. 19,2025) Poland with the country’s Border Force 
June 29th, 2025 – Russia has fired more than 500 aerial weapons at 
Under the pact, the two countries would have equal control over a new fund to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction. The war-torn country would maintain full ownership of 
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy came to Washington on Friday to seal a deal in which he would give the Trump administration 
A Ukrainian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Kavkaz hit a large cargo ferry laden with fuel on Thursday, triggering a towering blaze at the facility, according to 
Ukrainian forces had destroyed Russian missile launchers with a strike in the Belgorod region, about 20 miles into Russia. Ukraine used the US High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS.Officials. The attack came just days after the Biden administration 
The shift in policy followed declarations from nearly a dozen European governments and Canada that their weapons could be used to fire into Russia.
An intention to create “a sanitary zone” along the border inside 
Atacms long-ranges missiles capable of hitting targets 300km away had already arrived in Ukraine this month at the president’s direction, before the US security package was passed by Congress on Wednesday, the state department has said. Vedant Patel, a state department spokesperson, explained that the weapons were part of a March aid package for Ukraine – not the one just approved by Congress and signed by Joe Biden. “We did not announce this at the onset in order to maintain operational security for Ukraine at their request.”
The invasion represents Putin’s boldest effort yet to redraw the map of Europe and revive Moscow’s cold war-era influence. It has triggered an international response including an uncharacteristically unified NATO response and direct sanctions on Putin. Military and economic aid from the United States, and direct support from Ukraine’s neighboring NATO countries further threatened by Russia’s invasion are proving essential to Ukraine’s self-defense. 
“We will drill, baby, drill,” the president said in his inaugural address, and so far he has stuck to his rhetoric.
Trump has targeted, in a full-stop maneuver, policies enabling nation’s nascent offshore Wind Energy sector. Using false reasoning that denies the facts, Trump claims turbines are killing thousands of whales, but this president’s executive order is more than a Wind energy ban on ocean projects, he has gone further by 
President Trump’s “Big Bill” legislation now in final review in the Republican-controlled Senate would make far deeper cuts and lead to more people becoming medically-uninsured than previously proposed or imagined, with the nation’s Medicaid-dependent population feeling the weight of forthcoming government cuts to medical coverage and benefits.
up, or qualified for an exemption. The Senate version applies this provision to the poor parents of children older than 14 in addition to childless adults without disabilities, the group targeted by the House version. The budget office estimated that that provision alone would reduce federal spending by more than $325 billion over the decade.
The current attack on the highly successful IRA legislation includes was a package of taxpayer gifts directed at fossil-fuel and polluter interests. Most notable is the GOP’s financial elimination all EV (electric vehicle) tax credits, one of the many accomplishments of the 2023 bipartisan passage of the IRA clean energy bill.
So the party of Gas-Oil-Polluters (GOP) eliminates tax credits for EVs, but, their not satisfied with just crippling the growth of clean transportation, their House bill also targets domestic solar and wind, and energy efficiency improvements from cars-to-refrigerators-to factories. For some unknown reason, today’s GOP power players view efficiency when applied to a sustainable economy as a waste of time and money that they are neither invested or interested in… and their priorities are wrong; period.
Trump’s record-breaking use of executive powers is too often thinly and repeatedly justified by the president and his supporters as following a so-called “voter mandate” which elevated Trump to the office of the presidency without guardrails or accountability. In reality, Trump’s win was marked by the slimmest of margins (one and a half percent).
Consumers were more pessimistic about current and future labor-market conditions as well as the outlook for incomes and business conditions. Perceptions of present and future financial situations worsened and the 
Key Impacts on Hawaii’s Economy