To understand what lies ahead for Hawaii, the nation, and our world during the current pandemic storm epidemiologists have been studying the countries first battered by the virus storm.

Waves of COVID-19?

Any surfer can tell you about waves, big ones, small ones, good ones, and wipe outs.  The one thing waves all have in common – there is always another wave that follows, and generally in sets of three or four waves at a time.

Science tells us that COVID-19 virus will likely come in waves, in great part due to the uneven and disjointed global response to the pandemic, and the nature of the corona family of viruses.

Presently, there is disparate talk and increasing pressure to cut and run from our virus-induced economic losses. Scientists warn that prematurely re-booting our global economic engine with the infection still raging will only feed waves of the pandemic’s impacts.  Others argue, if China can do it (put people back to work), so can we..?

However, the question is not should we, but when?

The more the President does his campaign-best to convince the nation that once we get through this grim month of April, the nightmare will be completely over, the economy will come back with a roar, and all will be fine – we all want to believe the President, and wouldn’t it be wonderful, if true.

But this virus is very resilient, and health experts warn that this may be just the first wave of what may be waves of infections until we get a vaccine sometime in 2021.

Already, Japan after initial success is seeing a surge of infections, both China and South Korea have struggled with imported infections; and that seems inevitable as economic activity restarts and travel resumes.

“There’s this biological fact that still in South Korea, the people who haven’t been infected aren’t immune, and as soon as there’s an end to social distancing they’ll be vulnerable again,” noted Dr. Mark Poznansky of Harvard Medical School.   The same is true in the United States.

“We’re just looking at this first wave,” noted Dr. Murray. He estimates that in June, some 95 percent of Americans will still be susceptible to the virus.

“The world’s on fire with this virus,” said Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, and this means that even if one country succeeds in putting out the blaze, sparks will keep arriving from elsewhere to cause new outbreaks. He added: “I think the transmission will continue to occur for some time.”

COVID-19 VIRUS UPDATES

First, the good news — we have a policy toolbox that works. 

Even for countries that bungled their initial response to the virus, like Italy and the United States, there’s hope: Social distancing succeeds in slowing the contagion, and it does so quickly — within a few weeks of the adoption of tough measures.   On balance, this is excellent news. Early on, epidemiologists simply didn’t know how well social distancing would work.  It’s clear it works and we have an all important tool to save lives, if we use it…

Many Republican-controlled state governments are now seeing the consequences of their policy of virus-denial. Now faced with overwhelming facts from growing local virus impacts, the pandemic has come knocking at their front door, and it is no longer someone else’s problem, or just another science-driven conspiracy like human-caused climate change, this is the real deal.

“It’s the economy stupid.”     

That was the political calculus of 2008 presidential election.

In China, deaths didn’t fall sharply until a month after authoritarian controls had been imposed, in effect locking down the country. The government has now just as quickly reversed its effective national policy of economic lock-down, allowing sections of the country’s factory-rich areas to resume operations, leaving virus mitigation efforts selective applications and areas, all in the absence of a medical cure, and in nation of 1.2 billion people.

The consequence of China’s economy-first policy is a better managed rehearsal for Trump’s stated plan to offer the Country a quick release from its lock-down.  Is the Chinese government gambling with the lives of citizens – that’s a bet not yet called in a gamble with the COVID-19 virus, which until a vaccine becomes available, is holding all the cards.

The daily made-for-TV briefing to the Nation

Like the Chinese, Donald Trump is also focused on the economy during the present day pandemic.  Trump made it clear again today, in another of his daily made-for-TV briefings to the nation, that insulting reporters and anyone in the medical and scientific community who disagrees or challenges his unfounded assumptions and beliefs, they will face his wrath.

During the state of today’s TV briefing to the nation, our President went about setting the record straight with crooked statements.  Reporter questions, ranging from mounting virus-related deaths to Federal emergency response failures, to critical supply shortages in the nation’s hospitals resulting in mounting deaths measured in the lives of the nation’s healthcare workers and their patients – it was all but brushed aside with Trump’s unfounded assessments that he and the private sector would soon delivery a cure or treatment for the virus from existing and experimental medicines…America would be “great” again.

It is indeed a pleasure to hear Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases get his allotted 5 minutes at the microphone during the daily 2 hour briefings. Fauci uses his brief moment at the mic to reboot the conversation with refreshing wisdom and facts, providing the nation a reality check on Presidents statements. But as quickly as he appears on stage, he is then relegated to the back bench, so Trump can continue of daily show.

For the record, Dr. Fauci is the widely admired and much listened-to expert who has been in his position since 1984, advising six presidents along the way. He has taken on HIV/AIDS, Ebola, Zika and many other public health threats.

Ignoring the CDC, Dr. Fauci, and all creditable medical resources at his disposal, Trump, once again now that impeachment process is over and his personal lawyer has come out of the shadows, , doctor Rudy Giuliani is now advising the President on so-called miracle cures for the COVID-19 virus – yet none exist. The facts are that there are none, no vaccines have yet been invented, and therefore no proven existing drug work conclusively on the virus.  In this case, Rudy Giuliani’s cure advice may be worse than the disease, in some cases both can kill you.

In January 2017, a series of mysterious system wide failures led to a nearly 40% reduction in water delivery capacity by the Department of Water Supply (DWS) and to its West Hawaii customer base.  Of the 13 wells which comprise the DWS Westside system, five (5) wells mysteriously failed within days of one another.

The loss of five deep water wells resulted in severe water use restrictions for both residents and businesses throughout North Kona region, and for more than a year.

A belated DWS county audit was delivered to the County Council this week, more than three years after the event.  In the words of County auditor … “DWS should further develop and implement complete, detailed and written contingency plans by district as well as update their Continuity of Operations Plan.” 

That’s It?  As to the cause of the West Hawaii cascading well failures of 2017, the taxpayer-funded audit provided little insight.   In fact, if not for the persistence of North Kona Councilwoman Karen Eoff and former Councilman Dru Kanuha in response to residents’ concerns, there might not have ever been an audit.

What exactly triggered a series of closely aligned pump failures occurring within days of one another?  Fundamental questions as to why this happened, and equally important, as to what can be done to prevent it from happening again have not been investigated or explained by officials.

The DWS system failures took the utility two years to recover, mostly though a series of work-around steps. To date, some of the damaged wells may remain possibly permanently out of service, beyond economic recovery.

The costly series of downed wells and reduced service capacity required extended periods of voluntary and threatened water rationing, with DWS water trucks supplementing down service areas — also all at ratepayers expense.

The absence of any reasonable explanation goes to the heart of DWS’ operations: a quasi-public /private organization without accountability to its ratepayers; beginning with operational oversight, and ending with its manager and chief engineer.

A CLOSER LOOK INTO CORRECTIVE DWS MEASURES NEEDED

What  were the “lessons learned” that could prevent such failures in the future?

First, we must consider three fundamental and outstanding issues with DWS’s (Dept. of Water Supply) mission critical operation – reliably delivering water services to its customers: island residents, agriculture, and businesses:

1. No Power, No Water — DWS has no power backup system in place for its pumping operations; DWS is totally dependent on HELCO (HECO) power to operate on a 24×7 basis. The most basic power back-up capacity (enabling continued operation in the likely event of power loss is absent from the DWS water delivery system).  Service resiliency is not part of the utility’s management ethos. In the event of an extended power outage 8-18 hours, the DWS infrastructure begins to fail in water delivery, as pipeline storage tanks are emptied.
2. A Culture of and Absence of Public Transparency — The loss of five Hawaii Island Westside service wells within less than a month (January 2017), has never been fully explained – coincidence, not likely. Questions that remain unanswered, including: what was the state of HELCO power delivered to DWS, and what was the state of power surge protection at the time of system failure, and at each of the five well sites.  Is it true that all five well sites were wired to the same HELCO circuit? If yes, is there a link between the pump and equipment failures and the state of power delivery at the time of the incidents?
3. No Incentive to Improve Resiliency, Efficiency, or Lower Costs — DWS is the largest single power consumer on Hawaii Island. They are HELCO’s number one customer, but delivering power through a fragile grid which is ready to fail with Hawaii Island’s next super storm (even after ratepayer-funded HELCO grid strengthening improvements of 2018).  More than half of DWS’ operating cost is from electricity purchased from HELCO which is required to power its pumping network.  Escalating HELCO power costs are quickly passed onto DWS ratepayer water bills (no questions asked). From the DWS’ perspective, the ratepayer money barrel appears bottomless.

There is a nine member Water Board (appointed by the Mayor) which is charged with public oversight of DWS operations. The board has historically failed to demonstrate much interest in representing ratepayer interests, rubber stamping rate increases, and failing to hold accountable DWS management. Rather than focusing on their fiduciary oversight responsibilities to improve resiliency, efficiency, and lower costs within DWS, the Board appears less concerned with such details.

• There is also an absence of imagination by the Water Board and DWS management when it comes to opportunities that can address inherent operating deficiencies within the utility, i.e., addressing the absence of power back-up and adequate power surge protection from the grid– both a cost of operation and service reliability issue.
• Failing to pursue self-generation powering opportunities (solar/wind) and pumped-storage; are missed opportunities which can significantly cut DWS operating costs, introduce sustainability, and will certainly add to overall operating resiliency.

All appears in short supply when it comes to public accountability from a water utility which is both essential to Hawaii Island life and the local economy.

New developments in battery technology, and the promise of a growing number of electric vehicles to choose from in various price ranges has some Hawaii legislators on edge. In “the sky is falling” of knee-jerk legislation last year, SB 409 was born.

For additional information on electric vehicles (EV’s), and their role in Hawaii’s future, we invite you to visit the July 2019 edition of Hawaii Today: https://www.beyondkona.com/ev-adoption-linchpin-to-hawaiis-transportation-and-clean-energy-future/

SB 409, and its companion introduced in this current 2020 session as SB3111, are designed to collect from the small group of Hawaii’s Electric Vehicles owners road maintenance fees traditionally collected in the form of taxes on fossil fuel (gas/diesel) sales.  If you ask most of Hawaii’s EV owners they’ll likely tell you …sure we’ll pay our way, but is this right approach and the right time?  

Instead, SB409 (2019) and SB 3111 (2020) have in effect, added uncertainty and economic barriers of entry to EV ownership for Hawaii’s driving public. 

EV’s represent barely 1% of all registered vehicles in the state of Hawaii, and both bills are designed to address a problem that does not yet exist, and will not exist for some time to come.  So instead, our legislators created another tax (something we do best here in Hawaii) and one that promises to further slow Hawaii’s already modest growth path to electric vehicle ownership, and as a result, slow the advancement of Hawaii’s transition to clean energy and climate change mitigation.  

—

BeyondKona asked one of our island experts on the subject, Bernard Moret, EV owner and board adviser to Big Island Electric Vehicle Association (BIEVA) for his thoughts on the subjects of road taxes, electric vehicles, and Hawaii’s future in electrified transportation.

On road taxes, electric vehicles, and Hawaii’s future

Bernard Moret, guest editor

A transition to 100% renewable energy, not just for electricity production, but for all land-based activities, is crucial to the future of the state.

Hawaii is blessed with plentiful solar, wind, and geothermal energy, but is currently relying on fossil fuels for most of its electrical production (KUIC on Kauai is far ahead of HECO on the other islands) and for all of its transportation.

State and county policy makers have studied approaches to meeting the state’s goal of 100% renewable energy production by 2045 and the counties’ goal of total decarbonization of their vehicle fleets by 2035.  Much has been made in the last year of state studies aimed at maintaining funding for the road system in the face of anticipated decreases of revenue from the gasoline tax due to increased adoption of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) by the public.  Because these discussions all take place in the context of the state’s and counties’ efforts to move to 100% renewable energy sources, the first finding is simply that the only reasonable path open to us is through clean production of electrical energy and electrification of all land transportation.  So, where are we along this path?

To date, only modest efforts have been made by HECO to tap into renewable sources of energy, but this will change in keeping with the state’s mandate. Yet, the environmental contribution EV’s provide to the state’s other goals in the advancement clean energy and climate mitigation is generally discounted at the legislative level.

The contribution EV’s play in advancing the state’s clean goal will likely manifest themselves in two significant ways.

• 1-  Creation of an EV charging infrastructure will drive a resistant statewide utility (HECO) to shift their power production capacity to clean and renewable energy in order to meet the growing demand for EV-driven clean power demand, while incorporating the same cost-saving efficiencies of 21^st century grid operations.
• 2-  A natural extension of EV ownership to homeowner and commercial installed Solar rooftop power production, completing the cycle and fueling opportunity from sun-to-vehicle.

Specific to the transportation front, the expected decrease in gasoline consumption has not yet happened in Hawaii, in fact, last year saw a 3% increase in gasoline consumption — an unfortunate development as it also means an increase in pollution.  However, adoption of BEVs has started to modestly ramp up; state, counties, and power companies are working on setting up a network of charging stations; and discussions have started on a proposed road tax for BEVs.  Road maintenance needs, of course, will not change even when all vehicles on the road are BEVs.

Road damage from vehicles is almost entirely a function of their weight.  Government and state studies show that a single 18-wheeler loaded to its federal maximum of 80,000 lbs does 10,000 times more damage to the road than a midsize car.  In other words, almost all of the road damage is due to large commercial transports: dump trucks, tanker trucks, 18-wheelers, etc.  Put another way, drivers of personal vehicles subsidize road maintenance through the gasoline tax — accounting nationwide for over 60% of the revenue, while causing less than 1% of the road damage.

In the diagram below various vehicle weights and their ratios are represented by the level of road damage, compared to the average car.

We will not discuss here whether such a subsidy is fair: after all, everyone on the islands needs access to groceries, consumer goods, medical supplies, etc., all of which need to be hauled from harbors to distribution and sale points.  What we are saying here is that personal vehicles (including light-duty trucks) do so little damage to the roads that distinguishing among them, or even worrying about their annual mileage, is unimportant.

Currently the gasoline tax affects only drivers of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE), according to the efficiency of their vehicle (thus encouraging the adoption of more efficient vehicles) and to the mileage driven.  Any BEV makes much more efficient use of energy than any ICE vehicle (including hybrids): EPA figures show that the most efficient ICE cars barely reach 39 mpg, the best non-plugin hybrids up to 55 mpg, but BEVs are all between 100 mpg and 135 mpg equivalent.  Thus, as more of the total miles driven on the island are driven using BEVs, energy consumption gets reduced and pollution gets reduced even more.

There have been proposals to tax the electricity used for charging BEVs in an attempt to mirror the gasoline tax as closely as possible, but such proposals make little sense, for two reasons.  First, they would require extensive additional infrastructure, both public and private, to measure that energy. Second, as noted, the difference in total mileage driven (or total energy used) has almost no effect on road damage.  A much simpler mechanism is to add the road tax to the annual vehicle registration tax.   This added amount could be fixed or computed on a sliding scale (charging expensive vehicles more so as to reduce the impact on residents with modest incomes).  Given the efficiency and cleanliness of BEVs, imitating the gasoline tax by making the road tax dependent on mileage for BEVs is counterproductive.

The best solution is thus to continue taxing ICE and hybrid cars using the current gasoline tax and start using a road tax, as an extra sum paid with the registration fee, for BEVs, one that is independent of mileage, but progressive (charging more for expensive cars) so as to protect residents with modest income.

We should keep in mind that electric transportation will not only be a major contributor to Hawaii’s energy independence, but also bring huge benefits in terms of quality of life.  BEVs produce no emissions of their own; thus, after 2045, when electrical production is 100% renewable, all electric transportation will be clean — whereas today it is responsible for over one third of the pollution in the state!

In addition, BEVs are much simpler mechanically than their ICE counterparts (no gears, no transmission, very few moving parts) and thus last much longer and require almost no maintenance, resulting in a much lower cost of ownership.

BEVs are silent except for tire noise.  BEVs are statistically much safer than other cars: less than 1 accident per 2 million miles for BEVs vs. over 4 accidents for other cars — and, thanks to the rigidity of the structure that holds a BEV’s battery, the BEV driver is better protected than the ICE driver in case of accident.

The transition to electric transportation and a clean future is under way in our state and we should let our representatives know that we want them to do their best to facilitate that transition, including by setting a simple and reasonable policy for funding road maintenance.

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Bernard Moret was born in Switzerland, moved to the US in 1976, received his PhD in Computer Science in 1980, became a US citizen in 1984, and worked as a faculty member at the U. of New Mexico from 1980 till 2006 and at the Swiss Institute of Technology in Lausanne from 2006 to 2016, doing research in computational biology on the evolution of genomes.  With his wife, he moved to the Big Island of Hawaii in 2016 and now lives in a home powered by solar panels that also recharge his electric car.

Forty Nine Reasons all in a line, All of them good ones, All of them Lies ... (49 Bye-Byes, CSN).

The Hawaiian word for truth is ʻoiaʻiʻo.  

If you’re keeping score, Donald Trump has lied an average of 13 times a day since becoming president.  Within the last two months the average number of lies and misleading statements per day has grown to 22.

The latest fact check analysis (mid-October) on Trump’s public assertions and statements, Trump had made 13,435 false or misleading claims since taking over the oval office, according to the Fact Checker’s database which analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement he has uttered.

Why does any of this matter?  The plain truth is that truth matters, facts and empirical evidence matter, and preserving the morality of Truth Telling by our leaders and among ourselves matters.

False or misleading claims from Trump range the gambit of issues from trade, the state of the economy, the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, to claims and actions targeting his so-called “political enemies”.  The list grows daily with each new tweet; most recently the President focusing on re-writing the facts of the Ukraine investigation and playing a one-sided Executive Branch game of ignoring legal processes and their responsibilities requiring cooperation with House of Representatives investigation of the President and his agents operating in the name of (and behalf of) Trump, not the United States.

One possible explanation for the increase in the number of Trump’s lies is that as the president has continued to lie with relative political impunity, the President holds the majority of elected Republican officials’ within “his party” hostage. In our two party system, many Republicans have also grown increasingly desensitized to Trump’s actions, and have adopted an instinctive reluctance about saying that which they know to be severely exaggerated or flat-out untrue.

Facts appear to have little room in firmly rooted beliefs that have lead to a division in the Country’s thought processes. What should be more about facts, truth telling and well-throughout actions by our Commander and Chief, instead are replaced with questionable actions or even criminal acts that have become a partisan issue, rather than self-evaluation by the American people of their President, their Country, and their fellow Americans…

Overall, fewer than 3 out of 10 Americans believe Trump’s most common inaccuracies, indicating that he has developed a reputation for an absence of trustworthiness due to the transparency of some of his falsehoods.

Research of modern day truth telling and lies reveals more about us than just our take, our interpretation, our acceptance or rejection of Trump tales. Research also suggests that social media and other media have become the new arbiter of what is true and what is false, and what is a mostly partisan view of the world.

Many in our nation have mostly forsaken the traditional measurements of facts and reality checks that validate public policy for the convenience of instant messaging, dumb down reasoning, and foreign intervention in our democracy to define what is true and what is false.   Media technology is only a tool, not a replacement for thinking, researching, and doing the work to determine the truth, its certainly harder than just forsaking our citizen responsibilities for a quick tweet — all of which influences how we respond (vote) to the policies and the actions our leaders that matters.

If the over 240 years of the Republic, once considered an experiment in democracy, is worth anything then it is certainly worth taking personal responsibility for the ideal we commonly refer to as “living in the land of the free”.

We should never forget that with freedom comes responsibility and the fulfillment of our nation’s ideal:   We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity…

What’s next for this President

As of Thursday morning, Hawaii time (10-31-19) the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution  that formalizes the next steps in the impeachment inquiry of President Trump. The final vote was 232-196, with former Republican and current independent Rep. Justin Amash voting yes and two Democrats voting no.

“Sadly, this is not any cause for any glee or comfort. This is something that is very solemn, that is something prayerful and that we had to gather so much information to take us to this next step,” said Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the House floor prior to the vote, adding, “Every member should support allowing the American people to hear the facts themselves, that’s really what this vote is about.”

Hawai’i currently has over one million gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles on its roads, which, according to state research, emit nearly five million metric tons of climate-changing carbon pollution annually throughout the islands.

Add to that — Hawaii residents, businesses, and visitors 5 spent over $1,500,000,000 ($1.5 Billion) on imported fossil fuel purchases in 2018; dollars which otherwise could be spent to support our island economy.

Electric Vehicles (Battery Electric Vehicles aka BEV) will play a primary and enabling role in Hawaii’s journey to achieving its statewide goal of a 100% clean energy economy by 2045.

EV’s deliver multiple benefits to the taxpayers and residents of Hawai’i. But there is a statewide disconnect between good intentions and state policies designed to support and otherwise enable the fulfillment of these benefits.

First and foremost, Hawaii should be doing everything possible to create incentives, not barriers to this necessary transportation transition. The 2019 legislature’s reluctant passage of Sen. Inouye’s SB409 addition of a surcharge tax on new and annual electric vehicle registrations is an example where ill-informed lawmakers shifted EV adoption in Hawai’i into reverse.

(for 2019 legislative details read the Hawai’i Today edition of May 3^rd : “Forces Inside and Outside Hawai’i Shape the State’s Climate Future”).

Second, unlike most other states, in 2019 Hawaii continues to fail to offers any economic incentives towards the advancement EV adoption in the state. State EV incentives are weak at best, and limited to select parking privileges, and for Oahu residents, access to the county’s limited HOV lanes.

State of Hawaii EV Incentives, as of 2019

• EV Lane Exemption: Qualified EVs and PHEVs may use designated HOV lanes regardless of the number of occupants in the vehicle with the correct license plate
• Parking Fee Exemption: EVs are exempt from parking fees and metered parking, but not beyond 2.5 hours or the maximum amount of time the meter allows, whichever is longest. The parking exemption only applies to daily fees, not weekly or monthly parking fees. The program sunsets on June 30, 2020.
• Parking Requirement: Public parking lots with greater than 100 spaces must offer an EV designated parking spot and offer EV charging. The State of Hawaii has a free mobile app that shows public and private charging stations.

Why Price and Choice Matter

Hawaii’s absence of state tax credits towards new and used electric vehicles purchases buyers is a policy weakness which solely relies on Federal tax credits to close the purchase price gaps between ICE and EV vehicle purchases for Hawai’i buyers seeking to go electric.  New car buyers in all states, including Hawai’i, are eligible to receive a Federal tax credit up to $7,500.  This incentive, however, is short lived for the most successful car companies, e.g., Tesla and GM whose EV’s model sales exceeded the Federal limit of 200,000 electric vehicle sales and no longer qualify for the Federal tax credit assistance program set aside for EV purchases.  Hawaii residents interested in a new and affordable Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt are just out of luck.

Nationally, EV sales presently represent only 2.4 percent of all passenger car and truck sales in the U.S. As of January 2018, the number of electric vehicles registered in Hawai’i reached 6,748 – that number stands in contrast to over one million polluting ICE vehicles also registered in the state.  In effect, the electric vehicle population in Hawai’i is far outnumbered by their gasoline-diesel powered counterparts.

In contrast to this proportional reality, lawmakers tout Hawai’i as having the second-highest rate of EV adoption in the country.  That statement may be correct, but when Hawaii’s EV population starts near zero, the adoption rate even in small numbers looks grand.   But that’s beginning to slowly change as EV choices, price ranges, and model options continue to expand with each new model year.

Cost matters to consumers across the price range for big ticket purchases likes cars and houses. But some of Hawaii’s legislators, including Senator Inouye, believe falsely that only wealthy people can afford electric vehicles, that’s assumption belies the facts.

This graph shows 2019 EV  models presently available for sale in Hawai’i, their estimated purchase price before Federal tax incentives, their estimated driving range between charges, and their respective battery (engine) size. 

In fact, EV’s like their ICE (Internal Combustion engine) counterparts come in a wide range of prices, with several EV manufacturer models are now comparably priced to similar Honda, Toyota, or Hyundai ICE vehicles. However, ICE vehicles mostly maintain a purchase price advantage over similar EV models, ranging several thousand dollars or more. On average, last year (2018) EVs had an initial purchase price which was generally 15-20% higher than comparable gasoline powered vehicles.

We are now seeing EV battery cost reductions being passed on to consumers. Combined with vehicle design efficiency improvements and technology advances, electric vehicle prices are beginning to drop and consumers are getting greater value for purchase dollars. This was recently demonstrated by the EV market leader Tesla, which lowered 2019 vehicle prices and added driving range to its 2019 premium models, the S and X.

Fuel and Other Ownership Costs Considerations

There are many different ways to view vehicle ownership costs, but the two primary considerations are vehicle purchase costs and the lifetime cost of ownership – maintenance.

Electric Vehicles (EV) offer some distinct cost advantages over internal-combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, primarily in reduced maintenance costs and not having to buy gas …ever —which can make electric vehicles significantly cheaper than the comparable internal-combustion engine vehicles during their ownership lifespan. This is especially true when trading gallons of gas purchased for plugging in by Hawaii’s residents who choose to power not only their homes, but their vehicles from the sun.  The expansion of this zero emissions opportunity is easily expandable to Hawaii’s residents living in condos and apartments without garage parking and charging through a variety options in the state’s policy transition to clean energy.

Today’s so-called efficient cars and trucks still burn lots of fuel fossil getting from point A to point B.  To repeat: Hawaii residents, businesses, and visitors 5 spent over $1,500,000,000 ($1.5 Billion) on imported fossil fuel purchases in 2018.

Beyond fuel costs at the gas pump which require many costly and time wasting trips to local gas stations to re-fuel over and over and over again, there are larger considerations facing the state, and the planet as a whole. Fossil-fueled transportation pollutes our island skies, advances global warming impacts (something we should be acutely aware of living on an island facing rising sea levels and extreme storm events).

But less obvious cost for ICE owners are the engine and drivetrain maintenance costs. Paid over the vehicle life, drivers of traditional, non-electric vehicles face a huge operating money sink, especially as ICE vehicles age. Changing engine oil, coolant, transmission fluid, and belts all add up maintenance ownership costs over time.

By comparison, electric cars don’t have internal combustion engines, so these costs disappear. Universal vehicle expenses like tire and brake changes, insurance, and structural repair are part of owning any vehicle, but EV owners avoid many of the repeated costs associated with combustion engine upkeep.

A 2018 study from the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute found that electric vehicles cost less than half as much to operate as gas-powered cars. The average cost to operate an EV in the United States is $485 per year, while the average for a gasoline-powered vehicle is $1,117.

But what are the true EV cost benefits for society and Hawai’i as a whole?

First and foremost, Hawaii’s fossil-fueled transportation options carry with them not only passengers, but externality costs for Hawaii’s taxpayers, primarily in the form of  economic and environmental costs by worsening the growing impacts of climate change on Hawaii and its island economy.

By not advancing the public and private sector adoption of electric vehicles, state and county officials are operating in a mode that runs completely counter to Hawaii’s 2045 100% renewable energy and sustainability goals, which seek end the state’s addiction to imported fossil fuels.

EV adoption and market share growth of the now dominant ICE vehicle marketplace will take several converging factors:

• Private and public sector interest groups must come together on common implementations goals and strategy for the state.

• A statewide EV charging infrastructure must be established, not just on Oahu

• EV purchase costs must be competitive at the sticker cost level with comparable ICE options, meaningful state tax incentives will go a long way towards fulfilling this goal, and can be phased out over time once critical mass adoption has been achieved

• Changes to Hawaii’s current energy policy and regulations that discourage and create barriers to rooftop solar + EV adoption must be addressed holistically, not piecemeal.

Seeing is Believing – Ford introduces its new all electric F-150 pick-up truck …

While Ford is yet to announce a concrete release date for its all-electric F-150, today, the company debut to the world it’s F-150 EV pick-up truck.  The popular pick-up with an EV drivetrain is designed to ensure that the company’s upcoming pivot to electric vehicles will be a success.  The Detroit-based carmaker showcased how much cargo its upcoming battery powered electric truck could actually tow. As it turns out, the figure lies somewhere between zero and 1.25 million pounds.

Ford also recently announced its partnership with Volkswagen, which will allow Ford to use the German carmaker’s battery architecture. Ford has also invested $500 million in electric truck startup Rivian, which will give the veteran automaker access to the startup’s skateboard platform. Ford plans includes the production of over a dozen electric and electrified models by 2022.

Look to the future – which has already arrived

The United Kingdom’s National Grid is presently working on a national clean energy strategy whereby electric vehicles will, in effect, be rolling battery storage modules for the grid. The idea is not new, but implementation at the national grid level is unprecedented.

HECO also speaks of a future for Hawaii’s island-individual energy grid systems in which EV’s play a primary role by enabling grid-level power management of wind and solar power production, in effect, providing greater flexible in managing power fluctuations between supply and demand. But unlike the UK plan, HECO’s green energy plans does not mention the economic benefits and advantages of switching off of expensive fossil fuels and bringing down energy costs for consumers and EV owners.

As a national plan, the UK vision is bold and will require the support of policymakers.  The UK energy sector also predicts electric vehicles will become the most popular form of transport between 2030 and the early 2040s. It also predicts that many more homes and communities will generate their own electricity through solar panels or micro wind power projects.

None of this seems especially remarkable, in fact, of course the UK considers and plans for EV’s having a pivotal role in their clean energy-storage-management transition plans.

Nearer to home, island life goes on. Our county governments, communities, developers, along with present and future EV owners struggle with the basic question of where do I charge my EV?  The stakeholders look to Oahu or Washington D.C. for guidance and resources, but find little to none, just missed opportunities as the legislative clock ticks down to 2045 – well there’s always next year…