Hawaii’s Energy Outlook …an uncertain future

Solar energy currently accounts for a minority, but growing share of the Hawaii’s energy mix.  Despite having the third-lowest total energy consumption in the United States, Hawaii uses almost nine times more energy than it produces.

In 2023, solar power provided about 19% of Hawaii’s total electricity, the majority of which was from small-scale rooftop and customer-sited solar power generation. These same utility customer generation sites provide a return-on-investment benefit (and energy security when batteries are included) to Hawaii’s solar energy homeowners and businesses. Also, by producing their own power, HE’s solar energy customers off-set a portion of the utility’s dirty energy costs, and that utility cost reduction benefits all ratepayers.

Utility scale solar on the other hand has been historically hobbled by Hawaiian Electric’s obstruction and otherwise slow-walking of solar development. The company’s clear investment bias in the state’s combustion power plants, both directly and indirectly, have played an obvious role.

Today’s solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sector is the fastest growing electricity generation technology worldwide.

• In terms of new electricity generation capacity added globally in 2022, solar PV accounted for a staggering 56% of the total, far outpacing all other sources.

Over the past three years, solar PV and wind together have contributed over 75% of new electricity capacity expansions worldwide.  At the same time, legacy fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) overall continue to dominate the world’s energy markets.  These dirty fuels presently account for nearly 80% of the global energy supply.  This same market dominance has remained relatively stable for over a century.  Although fossil fuel market shares are shrinking and expected to decline to around 70% by 2030, this will only happen in light of continuing and dedicated efforts to decarbonize the world’s economies. Clean energy replacements aimed at reducing and eliminating carbon emissions now fueling global heating are already in place, it’s mainly a matter will, not technology, cost, or opportunity.

Of particular opportunity and benefit to Hawaii is it’s highly solar-productive location, combined with the need for a transition to clean energy self-sufficiency. As the state follows energy market trends elsewhere, solar is transforming the electricity supply grid, advancing energy distribution opportunities and increasingly energy resiliency in an increasing less resilient world of disrupted energy supply chains, super storms, and ever increasing fossil-fueled energy costs.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2023, solar photovoltaic (PV) is projected to experience astonishing growth rates and become a major contributor to the global energy mix, now and in the coming decades.  Solar PV deployment is projected to more than double from current levels by 2030.

The UN recently reported that climate pledges made by governments plan a dedicated boost in the solar economy through increased PV manufacturing capacity, and appear (unlike other international climate pledges entering various stages of  development and deployment) designed to meet their part in global clean energy transformation milestones targeting an end-date of 2030.

In the energy mix to a Net Zero Emissions deadline of 2050, most countries are planning and fully supporting the enabling role of solar PV, increasingly the dominant clean energy source in the global energy mix which includes, nuclear power, hydrogen, carbon sequestration, and many other dubious endeavors in the name of fighting climate change.

• By 2030, in the UN’s “Stated Policies Scenario” report, solar PV alone is expected to account for more than half of all new power generation capacity and energy additions, globally.   The global energy share of fossil fuels is also projected to decline from it present 80% position to 73% by 2030; less than 6 years from now. Considering the science and magnitude of global heating impacts, the present fossil fuel reduction commitments are analogous to “lipstick on a pig” as the world’s clean energy transition goal for the near term.

Solar PV and the electrification of transportation are clear frontrunners in the world’s clean energy transition off fossil fuels.  So while solar PV’s current contribution to the total global energy mix remains modest, it is projected to experience phenomenal growth in the coming years and decades, rapidly increasing its share as part of the clean energy transition away from fossil fuels.

In Hawaii, nobody appears to be in a hurry, until the next hurricane, next supply chain disruption, or utility rate increase.

As Solar Power Surges, U.S. Wind may be in trouble

When President Biden signed the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, it was expected to set off a boom in renewable energy, with hefty tax breaks that would make solar and wind power cheaper than fossil fuels.

So far, however, that dream has only come partly true. Solar panel installations are indeed soaring to record highs in the United States, as are batteries that can store energy for later. But wind power has struggled, both on land and in the ocean.

The country is now adding less wind capacity each year than before the IRA law was passed.

Some factors behind the wind industry’s recent slowdown may be temporary, such as snarled supply chains. But wind power is also more vulnerable than solar power to many of the biggest logistical hurdles that hinder renewable energy projects today: a lack of transmission lines, a lengthy permitting process and a growing backlash against new projects in many communities.

If wind power continues to stagnate, that could make the fight against global warming much harder, experts say.

Historically, quickly shifting the country away from fossil fuels envisioned a large expansion of both solar and wind, because the two sources generate electricity at different hours and can complement each other – batteries have not changed this reality, but instead offer a viable wind replacement role, fulfilling the potential of 24×7 on demand solar energy stored in batteries and hydropower systems. Both are competitive and technologically superior to so-called “firm energy”combustion energy power plants, when measured in terms of cost and performance.

Previously utility assumptions have called for wind assets to be balance-out with daytime solar additions and off-peak fossil fueled generation. These assumptions have been upended with the utility-scale introduction of battery storage options fully integrated into legacy grid generation energy assets and / or clean energy additions to the grid..

A clean energy transition boom focused on solar power generation alone is now not only possible, but increasingly practical.  As battery costs continue to drop, the technology performance per KWh continues to advance and improve, the added-value of battery energy management systems and their adoption is a validating business case for the technology, and an essential component of today’s and tomorrow’s renewable energy projects.

The growing energy management operating efficiencies also associated with utility scale battery installations are yielding built-in cost performance and reliability as recently demonstrated in Hawaii, and at greater scale elsewhere.  These same battery benefits apply to single family residential and commercial rooftop solar-battery installations. In these smaller scale applications of energy self-sufficiency, designed to fulfill reliable 24×7 power supplies both on or off the grid.

Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity

They’re delivering solar power after dark in California and helping to stabilize grids in other states. And the technology is expanding rapidly.

California draws more electricity from the sun than any other state. It also has a timing problem: Solar power is plentiful during the day but disappears by evening, just as people get home from work and electricity demand spikes. To fill the gap, power companies typically burn more fossil fuels like natural gas.

That’s now changing. Since 2020, California has installed more giant batteries than anywhere in the world apart from China. They can soak up excess solar power during the day and store it for use when it gets dark.

Utility scale batteries play a pivotal role in California’s electric grid stability, now replacing and off-setting fossil fuels in the evening and during peak power periods.

For example, between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. on April 30, batteries supplied more than one-fifth of California’s electricity and pumped out 7,046 megawatts of electricity, akin to the output from seven large nuclear reactors.

Across the country, power companies are increasingly using giant batteries the size of shipping containers to address renewable energy gaps when the wind and sun aren’t always available.

To meet the utility’s load balancing responsibilities and power dilemma between supply and demand, and for power to be reliably and consistent, Hawaii’s ratepayers have been told that is the role of Hawaii’s so-called “firm power” combustion power plants. Yet, Hawaiian Electric’s increasing power failures on Oahu and Hawaii Island have demonstrated that so-called firm power is less  reliable, no matter what fuel they burn, compared to battery storage energy assets properly managed.

BeyondKona Comment

There are better ways to serve the clean energy goals of Hawaii’s residents and visitors, and power its economy.  So far, the state’s primary and essential utility has set lofty renewable energy goals over the past decade. These goals have been marked by mismanagement and lost opportunities.

Serving the utility investor priorities is not the responsibility of Hawaii’s ratepayers nor the state’s elected officials. The public interest comes first!

It is increasingly clear there is a misalignment between Hawaii’s ratepayers and the utility, and one which preceded the 2023 Maui fire.

Ever rising ratepayer costs and greater grid service instabilities is not the path forward for Hawaii’s largest utility nor for multi-island customer base.  The utility has historically demonstrated it has not been a full partner in Hawaii’s journey to a self-sufficient and clean energy economy.  Before or at the statewide energy deadline calling for a 100% renewable energy powered grid within Hawaiian Electrics’ service territory, the state’s renewable energy clock will continue to tick down to zero hour, 2045..