The Future Arrived without much fanfare

Modern humans (Homo sapiens) have existed for approximately 300,000 years. Over that time we have evolved, along with our knowledge of fire, and the role it plays in extending human lifespans.

Anthropologists, archaeologists, primatologists, psychologists, and political scientists all agree that warfare is an ancient phenomenon deeply rooted in human history. War has also played a significant role in shaping human evolution and the development of modern societies.

Technological advancements have and continue to play a crucial role in shaping human history. It has also been a constant and transformative force shaping military strategies and capabilities with broader social, political, and cultural implications throughout most of human history.

Over time there have also been fundamental transformations in combat strategies and military capabilities. The scale of conflicts has also evolved, bringing us all closer and closer to the edge of extinction. One of the most significant developments in this long line of historic change occurred during the mid-20^th century, marking the introduction of nuclear weapons at scale.

Growing up in the 1960’s.

The two decades following the end of World War 2 laid a foundation for today’s diverse forms of warfare, along with the social, economic, geopolitical, and environmental repercussions.

My school buddies and I had grown up with drop drills and other useless nuclear war countermeasures. Living in fear of nuclear war had become commonplace, but locked away in deep recesses of our minds.  However, an all too recent and defining moment in human history arrived on the weekend of October 27-28, 1962.  On the cusp of that weekend we finished our school day. It was Friday, and like most kids we were looking forward to the weekend.  We generally followed a pattern often repeated when classes were over for the day. We would walk the same route home and stop off at the local store for snacks.   But this Friday was different. Traffic at school was more intense, with more kids being picked up by their parents than usual. We shrugged the moment off and headed home on foot.

In the background, the Cuban Missile Crisis had been building all week, and we soon discovered would come to a climax over the weekend.  As we walked home we talked about bomb shelters and what to do if missiles with nuclear warheads started flying in our direction, and mostly about our general anxiety without admitting our fear.

As we entered the local grocery store that Friday afternoon what we found on arriving was surprising; it was unusually crowded and frantic.  Adults were overloading their shopping carts with (any) canned food, among other things. This was the first confirming sign that this Friday afternoon in October was different.  There was also something in the air, unlike anything we had experienced before.

Saturday was unusually quiet, and by Sunday morning we all sighed with relief that the unthinkable moment of human extinction had passed, and that we dodged a bullet; nuclear armageddon. None of us slept very well that weekend – that much I clearly remember.

The 1960s were marked by a strange combination of changes. After the missile crisis, it was a period of hope and great expectation for most of the world. The Space Race was in its early stages, the Beatles arrived in America, and change was in the air.  The transistor radios we carried in our pockets were one more sign of the emerging modern age of technology now apart of our daily lives. In the background of this decade of change and hopeful excitement, there was the business-as-usual horrors of war to behold as the Vietnam War heated up.  By the end of the decade (just a few years later) that defining moment in October of 1962 seemed a lifetime ago, filed away in memories to be forgotten.

Hawaii’s False Alarm; Nuclear Attack

On January 13, 2018, at 8:07 a.m. HST, Hawaii experienced a false ballistic missile alert that caused widespread panic.

The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency mistakenly sent an Alert an audio and text to most residents smartphones: “BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO HAWAII. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER. THIS IS NOT A DRILL“.

Fueling the false alarm was a period of heightened tensions between the United States and North Korea, with both countries exchanging nuclear threats – which together contributed to the believability of the alert. The Nuclear Attack Alert offered a lead time of 5 minute warning ahead of the reported inbound nuclear weapon. For many residents and visitors it was the real thing, and five minutes of their life they would not want live over.

Days of Future Past

Today’s world is beset by a climate crisis of human making – a true game changing impact to the world and humanity.

Asymmetric military threats are increasingly tied to technology and somewhat leveling the playing field between advance nuclear-capable nations military and the rest of the world.  As regional wars rage, new threats from old enemies to a world at peace are on the rise. Threat multipliers to peace include Russia, China, Iran, and state actors with lower entry thresholds through terrorism and regional threats of war. The United States’ global economic and military dominance is increasingly challenged on multiple fronts, signaling more nuclear and non-nuclear threats to the United States, and by extension much of humanity.

The arrival of the digital age and global heating are just two examples of recent human-driven transformational changes at a planetary scale. The impacts of these global changes further exceed the sum of their social, political, environmental, and cultural impacts now underway.  All together, today’s world is much more complicated than the bad old days of the so-called Cold War period, with global changes now occurring at an ever increasing pace.

In the background, accelerating technology advancements with lower points of entry are also being weaponized,. One example is drone technology, once sold to hobbyists and now an essential weapon of war, as recently demonstrated in several current hot zones marked by regional warfare.

Artificial Intelligence is another example of the latest jack-in-the-box technology. AI is truly a 21st century change-agent, ready to pop out of its box without warning and change the human equation, possible for better or possible for worse.

The Internet was once viewed with great promise, a problem solving communications efficiency tool connecting an otherwise disconnected world.  It fulfilled that promise and more, and has proved essential to the daily lives of most modern humans. The promoters of AI tech are not promising similar benefits, rather they have ideas without fully understanding the implications of technology and the full implications of automated systems deployed globally which think for themselves and may otherwise produce outcomes the promoters of AI have so far failed to consider or develop and put in place counter-measures to control undesirable outcomes.

In the end, it is not about technology being good or bad, but rather how its used. Nuclear bombs or nuclear-medicine are a case in point.

Humans have choice, and choice is what mostly separates humankind from all other living things on Earth.